psuhoffman Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 the nam is programmed at 6 and 18z to be more amp'd and then to let us down at 12 and 0z. What a debacle hmm by 72 its not as bad as it was, starting to correct itself some. NAM spits out a crazy solution sometimes even really close to verification. Last year I remember one run like 24 hours before the Dec 19th storm that shifted way south and got DT all excited down in southern VA only to shift back north the next run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 The 78 hr solution is back to looking more amplified than the gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 hmm by 72 its not as bad as it was, starting to correct itself some. NAM spits out a crazy solution sometimes even really close to verification. Last year I remember one run like 24 hours before the Dec 19th storm that shifted way south and got DT all excited down in southern VA only to shift back north the next run. nam looks like its almost ready to close off and start bowling after 72.... problem may be the lane is too damn north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 It is but it looks like a more reasonable solution than the 18Z nam, more in line with the gfs and euro. 18z NAM actually wasnt so good...if you believe the DGEX it was too far west, held onto the primary way too long and did not really do much for our area, it was a big hit up for NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 hmm by 72 its not as bad as it was, starting to correct itself some. NAM spits out a crazy solution sometimes even really close to verification. Last year I remember one run like 24 hours before the Dec 19th storm that shifted way south and got DT all excited down in southern VA only to shift back north the next run. I don't know if it means anything in the end, but I like the way thicknesses rise a lot along the SC/NC coast by 72 hrs those lines are bunched awfully tight and suggest to me the system is poised to move north http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/00/images/nam_slp_072l.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 The life and times of a NAM run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Sounds like the NAM is the ultimate rollercoaster right now. Kudos to those keeping us straphangers in the know! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 nam looks like its almost ready to close off and start bowling after 72.... problem may be the lane is too damn north yep that is my fear, not this OTS nonesense... the energy out west is going to develop some surface feature. My fear is that it comes east too far north and we get stuck between the southern wave dying and the energy from the west going north of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 The 78 hr solution is back to looking more amplified than the gfs. 1020 SLP in MO boot heal and 1016 SLP off GA/SC coast I'll run with that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 assuming 850 Low consolidates and moves east, we're gold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 yep that is my fear, not this OTS nonesense... the energy out west is going to develop some surface feature. My fear is that it comes east too far north and we get stuck between the southern wave dying and the energy from the west going north of us. actually a little relief at 78....hasn't closed yet and looks like it would be a bit more south then i thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 yep that is my fear, not this OTS nonesense... the energy out west is going to develop some surface feature. My fear is that it comes east too far north and we get stuck between the southern wave dying and the energy from the west going north of us. It wouldn't be a storm threat if you weren't terrified of something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 actually a little relief at 78....hasn't closed yet and looks like it would be a bit more south then i thought. yep the NAM looks good, its not really a model concern just a general gut feeling of what could go wrong concern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 yep the NAM looks good, its not really a model concern just a general gut feeling of what could go wrong concern its OK, we're all on pins and needles waiting for the first decent event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 yep the NAM looks good, its not really a model concern just a general gut feeling of what could go wrong concern Luckily, the middle of the road solution is best for us. Too often this season a consensus got us nothing. We were relying on extreme outliers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Not sure why we don't access the WRF more often. JHUAPL has a rocking inhouse WRF. Check it out for current mini-zzard. I'm attaching a final frame but if you access the link, you can animate. The WRF depicts most anything of importance. You have to work with these geeky files: http://fermi.jhuapl.edu/WRF/ http://fermi.jhuapl.edu/WRF/Web_00/ http://fermi.jhuapl..../Eastern_CONUS/ http://fermi.jhuapl....SNOWINCHES.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 It wouldn't be a storm threat if you weren't terrified of something. yep, me being nervous about something is a good thing, if I do not think a storm has potential I do not bother to worry about it much. Its when I know there is a chance for something good that I start to look for ways it could fall apart Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 8, 2011 Author Share Posted January 8, 2011 the nam is programmed at 6 and 18z to be more amp'd and then to let us down at 12 and 0z. What a debacle the debacle is you posting stuff like this half way though the NAM run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 it looks anemic through 84 hrs, hopefully its getting ready to do something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Not sure why we don't access the WRF more often. JHUAPL has a rocking inhouse WRF. Check it out for current mini-zzard. I'm attaching a final frame but if you access the link, you can animate. The WRF depicts most anything of importance. You have to work with these geeky files: [ I used to work down the hall from those guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 it looks anemic through 84 hrs, hopefully its getting ready to do something All the models show a spell where the coastal low fizzles and we have to wait around for the northern stream impulse to energize it. If this storm comes to pass the radar will be ugly for a while and many weenies will bail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 at 84hrs, the nam uvv is just about on us so we would have a nice period of snow if you extrapolate it out. I'd prefer something in between the nam and gfs but think the nam would be OK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 it looks anemic through 84 hrs, hopefully its getting ready to do something all i got is the hope that the 1-3 stays in tact past IN.... no worries with a powerhouse 1020 low though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 8, 2011 Author Share Posted January 8, 2011 jb posted this morning about the event tomorrow and hasnt posted since Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 8, 2011 Author Share Posted January 8, 2011 snow for all of VA except for Leesburg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Luckily, the middle of the road solution is best for us. Too often this season a consensus got us nothing. We were relying on extreme outliers. yep, those times i didnt feel like we got screwed because i never thought we were in a good spot, this time it really would be a grade a screw job Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 I used to work down the hall from those guys. A buddy of mine showed me the WRF, his team is all over it. The graphics are smooth and fluid just like an atmosphere. The sun pointer at the bottom is one of his gadgets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 it looks anemic through 84 hrs, hopefully its getting ready to do something the low to the west is still the primary circulation, the h5 has to catch up faster and energize the coastal and let moisture advection begin before it is further north and too late for our area. Its a race against time. The inverted trough will be slowly sliding north as the h5 energy rides east along it. If the h5 can catch it before it moves north of us we are ok. If not....congrats NYC again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 8, 2011 Author Share Posted January 8, 2011 STFU you annoying douche. we need snow you Pos Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 All the models show a spell where the coastal low fizzles and we have to wait around for the northern stream impulse to energize it. If this storm comes to pass the radar will be ugly for a while and many weenies will bail. the mass panic the evening of the Feb 10th storm was funny as the radar was dried up and we waited for the upper level energy to bomb the coastal and get the deform band going right on top of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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