psuhoffman Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 yes it does and I can't believe the one out west isn't weakening and transferring energy 5400 thicknesses are to our south and do not seem to be moving any further north http://www.nco.ncep....ef_at5_087s.gif temps are unlikely to be a problem given the cold wedged in, however precip would be. If the energy does not transfer from the primary out west to the coastal while it is still south of us we will get a lighter snow as the dynamics will stay to our west and then jump over us. We need moisture advection off the atlantic and we will not get that as long as the primary is in control. The coastal has to become the dominant circulation at the surface before precip starts to really develop for our area. The OTS idea does not seem likely to me and is not a big worry right now, I would be much more concerned about any trends towards a more miller b type evolution with a stronger primary and a further north transfer of energy. That is the biggest risk of another screw job I see. SREF does not indicate that yet, GFS ens did, hopefully 0z data does not go in that direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 fyi NAM MOS for tomorrow BWI-.17" DCA-.10" IAD-.07" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Canadian has been hinting at it and Nogaps could be as well showing the storm bomb just south of us when , in fact, it bombs to our north just a thought you are mirroring my thoughts actually, and why that is what I am most concerned about. Basically if the primary holds on 6 hours longer then the models indicate its a philly north special and we are on the sidelines again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 fyi NAM MOS for tomorrow BWI-.17" DCA-.10" IAD-.07" that could be 3" for Baltimore with nice ratios if its cold enough at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 fyi NAM through 24 hrs for tomorrow models have been setting up that nice band of 3-5" just north of me for a couple runs now. Maybe it ends up 10 miles south of where they think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 that could be 3" for Baltimore with nice ratios if its cold enough at the surface. ACY an incredible .53" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prestige Worldwide Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 ACY an incredible .53" Looks like Mt Holly made a good call putting them in a Winter Storm Watch tomorrow. They really have been golden this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 ACY an incredible .53" I sear if ACY ends up with more snow then me this winter.... "serenity now" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 I sear if ACY ends up with more snow then me this winter.... "serenity now" better start practicing now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 anyone have any NAM location MOS requests? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prestige Worldwide Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 anyone have any NAM location MOS requests? GED- Georgetown, De Thanks, Mitch Jason Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 anyone have any NAM location MOS requests? KMTN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 GED- Georgetown, De Thanks, Mitch Jason another lucky bastid! .32" congrats, don't let the salt and brine wreck your car finish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 KMTN .21-.22" range because .01 falls in the next 6 hour period and I think its more from a flurry/squall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 I sear if ACY ends up with more snow then me this winter.... "serenity now" At the moment, Norfolk looks to get more snow than you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Well guys, NAM is less impressive than 18z so far. Will wait for the run to finish before crapping on it tho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Well guys, NAM is less impressive than 18z so far. Will wait for the run to finish before crapping on it tho I was comparing it to 12z and it looked better, but did not compare it to 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 0Z NAM is much faster with the southern wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 0Z NAM is much faster with the southern wave. I did notice that, but also noticed the northern trough pushing a bit further south and east than 18Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 OT but I just read CWG and the comment from jacK@@@. Wish I knew if that phone number was authentic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 OT but I just read CWG and the comment from jacK@@@. Wish I knew if that phone number was authentic. what's CWG and who are u referring to? sorry to be out of the acronym loop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 what's CWG and who are u referring to? sorry to be out of the acronym loop The capital gang blog that i wrote. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 anyone have any NAM location MOS requests? where do you get the NAM MOS? The place I used to use is defunct now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 The capital gang blog that i wrote. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 where do you get the NAM MOS? The place I used to use is defunct now pay site I'd rather not say who because it may be an issue about posting the info it does come out a little later at IPS Meteostar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 nam at 60 is a mess at h5, less ridging in front of the western trough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 the nam is programmed at 6 and 18z to be more amp'd and then to let us down at 12 and 0z. What a debacle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 pay site I'd rather not say who because it may be an issue about posting the info it does come out a little later at IPS Meteostar thanks anyways Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 nam at 60 is a mess at h5, less ridging in front of the western trough not to worry its in its "purely for entertainment" time frame Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 not to worry its in its "purely for entertainment" time frame It is but it looks like a more reasonable solution than the 18Z nam, more in line with the gfs and euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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