Ian Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I think the 12Z Euro maybe adjusted a hair towards the ensemble mean is the best bet. I just don't think the GFS is getting it yet. 3-6 inches GFS would give us 1-3, at best. well both the euro and gfs looked like they should be west of what they were so im not sure what's up. my thought on the gfs is that the second vort keeps inching north so maybe it's having trouble pulling the low in. not much reason to shift my overall thinking.. ots still a possibility but less than 50% at this pt probably. still like 2-4 as a starting ground. 3-6 possible for sure but that's my upper scale at this time around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 well both the euro and gfs looked like they should be west of what they were so im not sure what's up. my thought on the gfs is that the second vort keeps inching north so maybe it's having trouble pulling the low in. not much reason to shift my overall thinking.. ots still a possibility but less than 50% at this pt probably. still like 2-4 as a starting ground. 3-6 possible for sure but that's my upper scale at this time around here. I am just giving you a hard time. This is still out there, but getting into the timeframe when confidence usually starts going up one way or the other. This one seems to be modeled a bit better than some others and you have to like that they all give us some snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ender Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Does the pattern support a coastal up to maine??? Well, to be fair, it's not exactly ideal. It could be a lot more hostile, though. I think a reasonable worst case would feature a weakening southern system heading NE then ENE off the SE coast. That's still not exactly a disaster. If timing is particularly bad I could see a too weak to help us southern system slide out and a 12 - 18hr later miller-b like disaster take shape off the NJ to LI coast. IT's nice to see the UKMET with a 1020mb low over western KY (I know JI's seen highs that were weaker than that...spare me) with a 1016 low just off the SE SC coast. Then, 24hr later, we have a 1008mb low over BUF and a 998mb low just south of the eastern tip of LI. I think that would allow a nice conveyor of moisture, and lift, as the NW to SE axis of the two lows passes through our latitude. That's typically good for several hours of moderate snow. It's far better than the rather unpleasant scenario of no southern low and a NE trekking primary heading up through OH/Western WV until it gets to the PIT/ERI region and a DE/NJ secondary pops. That's pretty much agony around here with a brief period of light snow, a very short burst of moderate...then warm frontal passage and delightful down sloping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I am just giving you a hard time. This is still out there, but getting into the timeframe when confidence usually starts going up one way or the other. This one seems to be modeled a bit better than some others and you have to like that they all give us some snow. if the op euro and op gfs looked like the ensemble means i'd be more bullish probably. then again it's still early in the end. till this is within like 72 hrs can have plenty of change.. maybe even later but as you note this does seem more 'stable' than others this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJ3 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 if the op euro and op gfs looked like the ensemble means i'd be more bullish probably. then again it's still early in the end. till this is within like 72 hrs can have plenty of change.. maybe even later but as you note this does seem more 'stable' than others this season. Doug Kammerer on WRC 4 in D.C. just said 1-2" tomorrow and double that on Tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Swiscaster Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I saw that. And 80 percent chance of snow tomorrow. I don't see how we even get a dusting. Wouldn't be shocked to go flakeless. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Like I said, all about expectations...keep it to 3 to 6 and we all may be satisfied. I think when all is said and done we are probably looking at a miller b that forms just south enough to give us 3-6. This is certainly a reasonable expectation at this point, but the devil will be in the details that get ironed out by the models this weekend. Wishing all the best to all of you here in the mid-atlantic. See you Sunday to reel this sucka in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stephen Turner Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 looks like the NJ coast is going get hammered Tuesday Night through Thursday...but does it have a chance to have the strength of the blizzard of 2010? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Doug Kammerer on WRC 4 in D.C. just said 1-2" tomorrow and double that on Tuesday not sure how we get 1-2" tomorrow but he is new to the area... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ender Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 if the op euro and op gfs looked like the ensemble means i'd be more bullish probably. then again it's still early in the end. till this is within like 72 hrs can have plenty of change.. maybe even later but as you note this does seem more 'stable' than others this season. You have to think positive thoughts or this isn't going to work out at all. Just don't take a look at the 18Z GEFS. Ugh... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 You have to think positive thoughts or this isn't going to work out at all. Just don't take a look at the 18Z GEFS. Ugh... Can you elaborate? I don't see them on the NCEP page. I'm assuming they're horribly east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 ENDER, what were you thinking buddy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Some of the 18Z GFS ensemble members are putrid... wonder what got into the GFS today? 2 with a strong primary over buffalo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 You have to think positive thoughts or this isn't going to work out at all. Just don't take a look at the 18Z GEFS. Ugh... what does it show? too lazy to look.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 what does it show? too lazy to look.. Don't bother. 4 or 5 are pretty bad... that drags the GEFS mean down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ender Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Can you elaborate? I don't see them on the NCEP page. I'm assuming they're horribly east. No, not horribly east. They're just very miller-b like. Here's how they work out from a total QPF point of view. ENDER, what were you thinking buddy? Not sure what you mean. I didn't say anything about tomorrow. From .75" to perhaps 1.25/1.5" isn't unreasonable around here. Thus their forecast for me seems good. I think FDK and BWI are probably good for 1.5" - 2" and the northern most tier of Maryland, and the NE corner, outside of Balt, should pull over 2". So not sure what I said that was wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 No, not horribly east. They're just very miller-b like. Here's how they work out from a total QPF point of view. Not sure what you mean. I didn't say anything about tomorrow. From .75" to perhaps 1.25/1.5" isn't unreasonable around here. Thus their forecast for me seems good. I think FDK and BWI are probably good for 1.5" - 2" and the northern most tier of Maryland, and the NE corner, outside of Balt, should pull over 2". So not sure what I said that was wrong. I'm just busting your chops on the NWS forecast of 2-4" for Balt County, etc. that's all 2-4" seems a little aggressive and based on your estimates (that I think are fair fwiw) 1-3" for the area seems reasonable I will be shocked (pleasantly so if its mby) for anyone west of the Bay to receive anything more than 2", let alone 3" or 4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 I am not sure what is so terrible about the GFS ensembles. I sometimes wonder if I am on the same planet as some of you. To me, they scream that the operational is too far east and weak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 I am not sure what is so terrible about the GFS ensembles. I sometimes wonder if I am the same planet as some of you. To me, they scream that the operational is too far east and weak. And that QPF map that Ender posted doesn't look all that bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 You've gott'a be kidding me. I hope it wasn't the "jac" guy. No offense to him, I know the passion involved...and the frustration, but seriously... Hasn't everyone noticed the relative confidence expressed by you, and others I might add, that this year (in general) is not exactly one that we should have much hope for? Hasn't everyone noticed the "laundry list of reasons why" tomorrow didn't look like it held much promise as a "big storm" and the same for 12/5, 12/19 and 12/26? What use is it have a gun held to your head so that you'll forecast snow when the reality is the laundry list is hard to ignore. Had you forecasted snow on those occasions you'd just have been flat out wrong. That's a better approach, though? Hasn't everyone noticed that relatively lack of snow this winter, and the validation that one, or more, of the items on the laundry list were the culprit? Last winter we had confidence...you were even posting, a week in advance, H5 maps and showing their relative similarities to the super-ensemble of "great DC storms". That was a year ago. This year, however, is a very different beast altogether. Unfortunately it's a beast that has a good amount of historical support for being an under-performer. People's hopes don't make it snow...nor can a "really positive and excited Met" change the course of the future. Likewise guns don't work either. Is there a long analog list of strong Nina's where there was the degree of blocking we have this year? I am not sure we can simply rely on climo for a nina to discout any threat as unlikely because climo for a nina also argued the NAO should average positive this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 I don't get everything you said, but I like it. http://www.theweatherprediction.com/habyhints/65/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 I don't get everything you said, but I like it. I think basically the energy (DPVA) associated with the western trough as it approaches should increase lift along the inverted trough left over with the old dying southern wave. THis means the best dynamics and lift should cause the low to reform further west then the op gfs is indicating and the lift should enhance the precip along the old boundary as the low reforms/amplifies. The EC ensembles and GFS ensembles certainly paint that pictures as does the GGEM and NOGAPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 We may have to start a new storm thread for Jan 15-17. Euro and Gfs are threatening around day 9-10 that setup kinda reminds me of some of those snow/ice storms from 1994 where the primary went way west but there was a wedge locked in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 new SREF at 87 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 that setup kinda reminds me of some of those snow/ice storms from 1994 where the primary went way west but there was a wedge locked in. If I was putting early money on that setup, I'd say any remaining white stuff in the MA will be washed away.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 The low looks to be in a nice spot at 87HR, mitchnick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 The low looks to be in a nice spot at 87HR, mitchnick. yes it does and I can't believe the one out west isn't weakening and transferring energy 5400 thicknesses are to our south and do not seem to be moving any further north http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/sref/21/images/sref_at5_087s.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 The low looks to be in a nice spot at 87HR, mitchnick. it does, SREF looks NICE.... about Enders comments on the 18z GEFS. I think it depends on your perspective. I think a 2-4" type event is very probably at this time. Given our luck this year that is great. If you are totally happy with that, then the change in the GFS is no problem. However, if you are hoping for a better solution the evolution towards a more miller b scenario of the 18z ensembles is a bad trend. They key the energy on the primary west of here way too long and do not really transfer energy to the coast again until it is past our lattitude. They smack of a 2-4" type storm for DC and Baltimore, then things really bomb out northeast of us and we watch Philly and NYC get another MECS/HECS. I am not buying it yet, would have to see something else back it up first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 it does, SREF looks NICE.... about Enders comments on the 18z GEFS. I think it depends on your perspective. I think a 2-4" type event is very probably at this time. Given our luck this year that is great. If you are totally happy with that, then the change in the GFS is no problem. However, if you are hoping for a better solution the evolution towards a more miller b scenario of the 18z ensembles is a bad trend. They key the energy on the primary west of here way too long and do not really transfer energy to the coast again until it is past our lattitude. They smack of a 2-4" type storm for DC and Baltimore, then things really bomb out northeast of us and we watch Philly and NYC get another MECS/HECS. I am not buying it yet, would have to see something else back it up first. Canadian has been hinting at it and Nogaps could be as well showing the storm bomb just south of us when , in fact, it bombs to our north just a thought Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 fyi NAM through 24 hrs for tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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