lsukev Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Well hey, at least central North Carolina does well on this run. I mean, they haven't had any snow yet this year either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I think the bigger red flag is the ensembles all being further west. Call me a weenie, but the GFS is now on the weak and east extreme of the guidance envelope. Do you trust it in that position? it's been consistent enough and close enough to the euro that i dont care terribly much about the ensembles right now. people love the ens mean but it leads astray at times imo especially if there are divergent solutions within it. but i havent really looked at indiv members recently. unfortunately i think the gfs still makes a lot of sense even if this went too far the other way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 7, 2011 Author Share Posted January 7, 2011 The Euro ensemble mean is clearly west of the operational. Variance is getting smaller. It's not a fan of the Miller B scenarios, but from what I can tell on the spag charts, there are quite a few members that go up the Appalachians or Susquehanna Valley. Not nearly as many OTS members this time around either. I'd call this a big win for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Wow out to 144 it wants to give another inverted trough to NYC - Hudson Valley - NE, big hit if it were to verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 7, 2011 Author Share Posted January 7, 2011 meh east of 12z Your model forecasting skills need work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 it's been consistent enough and close enough to the euro that i dont care terribly much about the ensembles right now. people love the ens mean but it leads astray at times imo especially if there are divergent solutions within it. but i havent really looked at indiv members recently. unfortunately i think the gfs still makes a lot of sense. They are becoming pretty clustered. Individual Euro members had some real bombs and almost all members were west of the operational. I think the Euro keeps creeping west. It was already west of the GFS at 12Z. If the GFS ensemble members keep going west, I have to think the op GFS is alone at that point. Maybe it will score a coup on a very low-impact event in that case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 18z GFS....meh. wait till 0z runs tonight. As long as the Euro holds serve, and the Canadian doesn't go too "GFS", the ensembles looked good so not time to sink into a depression. And this little event tomorrow is not to be overlooked. A nice inch or 2 of snow, maybe 3 or 4 in some places.... and playoff football too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I love this sequence. The GFS fooled me in the 18Z discussion too. Something isn't adding up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Your model forecasting skills need work. well you tell me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 The GFS fooled me in the 18Z discussion too. Something isn't adding up. there ya go JI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 well you tell me That is some serious global dry air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Sorry if map is already posted... The Euro enemble mean is really west and is trouble concerning mix for eastern VA. To me this representation looks like a good hit for the area. Still, need a phase in the SE for us to get bombed on.... maybe the season trend can work for us here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 0z will be ultra telling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I don't say this very often regarding models because it is said too often, but the 18Z GFS just doesn't look right. It is becoming clear the southern wave will be moving out/weakening just in time to develop a shortwave but amplified ridge ahead of the western trough. Even 18Z GFS suggests this. That is where it fooled me. What should happen is, as the mesoscale models suggest better, is that DPVA with the northern wave will support weak forced ascent along the northern periphery which will develop an inverted trough axis. Moreover, a more amplified ridge/trough like all guidance now develops enhances mesoscale jet divergence. The backside secondary jet will begin to take over later in the period as this wave heads E, but not to the extent the 18Z GFS does with it sailing straight through the ridge axis like that. I can almost bet later GFS runs will correct and trend a tad slower, more amplified with the secondary wave, and more intense with a more impressive secondary inland circulation/inverted trough axis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 0z will be ultra telling. Am I the only one that laughs a little bit when this is said after every model run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 7, 2011 Author Share Posted January 7, 2011 there ya go JI Lol..u got bailed out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I don't say this very often regarding models because it is said too often, but the 18Z GFS just doesn't look right. It is becoming clear the southern wave will be moving out/weakening just in time to develop a shortwave but amplified ridge ahead of the western trough. Even 18Z GFS suggests this. That is where it fooled me. What should happen is, as the mesoscale models suggest better, is that DPVA with the northern wave will support weak forced ascent along the northern periphery which will develop an inverted trough axis. Moreover, a more amplified ridge/trough like all guidance now develops enhances mesoscale jet divergence. The backside secondary jet will begin to take over later in the period as this wave heads E, but not to the extent the 18Z GFS does with it sailing straight through the ridge axis like that. I can almost bet later GFS runs will correct and trend a tad slower, more amplified with the secondary wave, and more intense. I don't get everything you said, but I like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Am I the only one that laughs a little bit when this is said after every model run We all do, it's a running joke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 They are becoming pretty clustered. Individual Euro members had some real bombs and almost all members were west of the operational. I think the Euro keeps creeping west. It was already west of the GFS at 12Z. If the GFS ensemble members keep going west, I have to think the op GFS is alone at that point. Maybe it will score a coup on a very low-impact event in that case. 18z GFS is maybe too far the other way. I still have little reason to believe the best track solutions in this pattern but it could happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 7, 2011 Author Share Posted January 7, 2011 I don't get everything you said, but I like it. If he was posting here last year...he may of gotten a marriage proposal or two Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Also, I don't know how much latitude the OV wave can gain- decent wedge in place thanks to the secondary HP axis in place just north of the lakes.. 1035 MB? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 We all do, it's a running joke. Don't get me wrong...sometimes it is actually warranted/valid (like when specific features of interest are sampled by raobs, which we intentionally draw much closer to in comparison with other ob types). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I don't get everything you said, but I like it. I am trying to be more positive In all honesty though, considering everything and the data available, the GFS op is becoming a huge outlier and is doing things that almost don't make sense. I don't believe it will manage to pull a coup and verify as is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 7, 2011 Author Share Posted January 7, 2011 We may have to start a new storm thread for Jan 15-17. Euro and Gfs are threatening around day 9-10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 18z GFS is maybe too far the other way. I still have little reason to believe the best track solutions in this pattern but it could happen. I think the 12Z Euro maybe adjusted a hair towards the ensemble mean is the best bet. I just don't think the GFS is getting it yet. 3-6 inches GFS would give us 1-3, at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 7, 2011 Author Share Posted January 7, 2011 I am trying to be more positive In all honesty though, considering everything and the data available, the GFS op is becoming a huge outlier and is doing things that almost don't make sense. I don't believe it will manage to pull a coup and verify as is. Over the years with regards to east coast storms...it seems to really have issues in the 90-120 Hour time range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I am trying to be more positive In all honesty though, considering everything and the data available, the GFS op is becoming a huge outlier and is doing things that almost don't make sense. I don't believe it will manage to pull a coup and verify as is. Much easier for the unwashed brain to digest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Wow out to 144 it wants to give another inverted trough to NYC - Hudson Valley - NE, big hit if it were to verify. Thanks for keeping us in the loop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I don't get everything you said, but I like it. Basically, the GFS needs to have its polarity reversed while simultaneously venting excess plasma through the secondary relays. This will allow the phase coils to fully charge the primary intake manifold within the antimatter stream, thus providing sufficient neutral power consumption across the entire EM band. Not that complicated, dude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Like I said, all about expectations...keep it to 3 to 6 and we all may be satisfied. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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