WinterWxLuvr Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 yeah, put me onboard with this too. Count me in. I want precip. I'll worry about what kind later. I'm tired of this dry BS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 7, 2011 Author Share Posted January 7, 2011 ender said 3-5 up to 6. all i see is 6 in that statement:) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Man, folks across the forums are WAY too worried over the DGEX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 pv moving out quicker on the gfs s/w is a little stronger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Man, folks across the forums are WAY too worried over the DGEX. large numbers here have trouble with thinking clearly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 7, 2011 Author Share Posted January 7, 2011 weenies are not normal people. about 1 out of 20,000 people are probably looking at the 18z model suite right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ender Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Nah, I'm licking my wounds from the CWG post and one guys response. You've gott'a be kidding me. I hope it wasn't the "jac" guy. No offense to him, I know the passion involved...and the frustration, but seriously... Hasn't everyone noticed the relative confidence expressed by you, and others I might add, that this year (in general) is not exactly one that we should have much hope for? Hasn't everyone noticed the "laundry list of reasons why" tomorrow didn't look like it held much promise as a "big storm" and the same for 12/5, 12/19 and 12/26? What use is it have a gun held to your head so that you'll forecast snow when the reality is the laundry list is hard to ignore. Had you forecasted snow on those occasions you'd just have been flat out wrong. That's a better approach, though? Hasn't everyone noticed that relatively lack of snow this winter, and the validation that one, or more, of the items on the laundry list were the culprit? Last winter we had confidence...you were even posting, a week in advance, H5 maps and showing their relative similarities to the super-ensemble of "great DC storms". That was a year ago. This year, however, is a very different beast altogether. Unfortunately it's a beast that has a good amount of historical support for being an under-performer. People's hopes don't make it snow...nor can a "really positive and excited Met" change the course of the future. Likewise guns don't work either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 changes look pretty minor to me thru 48 though most of us could just copy/paste the same commentary for every run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ender Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 ender said 3-5 up to 6. all i see is 6 in that statement:) Thanks for reminding me. I'm the eternal pessimist too. I'm going to regret this day, very, very deeply. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 7, 2011 Author Share Posted January 7, 2011 Thanks for reminding me. I'm the eternal pessimist too. I'm going to regret this day, very, very deeply. I assuming you mean 3-5 maybe 6 flakes not inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 GFS looking secsy so far precip is further north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowchill Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 precip inti ric at 84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 changes still really minor thru 78.. should be a smidge better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ender Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 GFS looking secsy so far precip is further north Ironically the GFS heads to south of HAT then ENE out to sea. Funny. I dont buy it, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 meh east of 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 GFS looking secsy so far precip is further north changes still really minor thru 78.. should be a smidge better Ironically the GFS heads to south of HAT then ENE out to sea. Funny. I dont buy it, though. meh east of 12z I love this sequence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 meh east of 12z this might be the first negative model comment you've made. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 GFS is becoming a pretty far outlier from its ensembles at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I love this sequence. that quick east jog is brutal, big difference from there on out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 eh, it looks really similar to 12z.. precip in this range is useless still -- 500 vort did inch north again though -- red flag? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 What the hell just happened? Looked good thru 78 then...poof. What happens to the western energy? Does not look right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 the big diff is just less precip on the nw side Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ender Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 GFS is becoming a pretty far outlier from its ensembles at this point. Well...that's only if they don't run the 18Z GEFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 dt over at sv said it could Hook out to sea, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 eh, it looks really similar to 12z.. precip in this range is useless still -- 500 vort did inch north again though -- red flag? I think the bigger red flag is the ensembles all being further west. Call me a weenie, but the GFS is now on the weak and east extreme of the guidance envelope. Do you trust it in that position? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 dt over at sv said it could Hook out to sea, Keep us posted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Well...that's only if they don't run the 18Z GEFS. Does the pattern support a coastal up to maine??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Well...that's only if they don't run the 18Z GEFS. In all seriousness, they will be west, most likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Keep us posted. He indicated the pattern DOES NOT support a sc to me coastal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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