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Jan 11-12 Model/Forecasting Discussion


Ji

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well, I can see what the concern may be if you just look at the 78 or 84 hr frame of the 500mb maps

but to this weenie's eyes, we're OK because when you loop the 5H map, you see how the N stream trough finally starts moving east at the end of the run to a point that the heights over us actually start to FALL

take a look

http://www.nco.ncep....00_l_loop.shtml

I think we're OK and the too warm scenario doesn't completely play out to wreck it for us

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The DGEX looks kinda ugly for some of us......for what it's worth

18zdgex850mbTSLPp06108.gif

the DGEX west???

he!!, that's good news in my eyes; anything contrary to the 12/26 storm is to me

if Ma' Nature wants to find a different way to screw us, so be it, but I hate watching reruns when I didn't like the show the first time

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the DGEX west???

he!!, that's good news in my eyes; anything contrary to the 12/26 storm is to me

if Ma' Nature wants to find a different way to screw us, so be it, but I hate watching reruns when I didn't like the show the first time

I am with you, would rather dance with the devil on temps then the back edge again

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That doesn't leave me feeling that warm and fuzzy as it smacks of a miller be hybrid and if the southern stream system doesn't get going quick enough. We might even have ptype problems. Certainly would be wintery weather. That's a huge change from the earlier runs.

Me neither....but I like the "relative consistency" of the GFS and the ECE mean which has been slowly creeping west with each run. Actually the 12Z ECE mean just took more than a "creep" west. The "weakness" at H5 ahead of the n-stream s/w is creating a nice little path up the coast rather than all the fun to get shunted out NE or ENE from HAT. Obviously there's the risk that my "encouraging weakness" means we end-up with a low running up through the eastern piedmont, but I seriously doubt that'll happen. I really do think that we'll see a decently developed southern stream system early enough, and far enough west, to result in a nice snowfall. Actually I'm just plain confident now...I think Tue/Wed is going to work out well here. As long as it's acknowledged that "well" is a relative term, but I think we should see a good 2" - 4", perhaps even 3" - 5" if not 6" event. I think NJ, NYC, and SNE are really going to get clobbered as the true fun, and explosive deepening, is going to be a LI to the Cape event.

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