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Jan 11-12 Model/Forecasting Discussion


Ji

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i guess.. hadnt heard about that

SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE

NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS CAMP SPRINGS MD

1526Z THU DEC 23 2010

ATTN...GFS MODEL INFORMATION..

AN INCONSISTENCY HAS BEEN UNCOVERED IN THE GFS 12 HR ACCUMULATED

PRECIPITATION AT FORECAST HOUR 192. THE 12 HR ACCUMULATION DOES

NOT REPRODUCE THE SUM OF THE PREVIOUS 2 SIX HOUR ACCUMULATIONS.

THIS ERROR WAS INTRODUCED WITH THE 27 JULY RESOLUTION INCREASE.

WE HOPE TO IMPLEMENT A CORRECTION BY THE END OF JANUARY, 2011.

AN ANNOUNCEMENT WITH THE ACTUAL IMPLEMENTATION DATE WILL BE MADE

AS SOON AS IT IS DETERMINED. QUESTIONS SHOULD BE ADDRESSED TO

[email protected]

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SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE

NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS CAMP SPRINGS MD

1526Z THU DEC 23 2010

ATTN...GFS MODEL INFORMATION..

AN INCONSISTENCY HAS BEEN UNCOVERED IN THE GFS 12 HR ACCUMULATED

PRECIPITATION AT FORECAST HOUR 192. THE 12 HR ACCUMULATION DOES

NOT REPRODUCE THE SUM OF THE PREVIOUS 2 SIX HOUR ACCUMULATIONS.

THIS ERROR WAS INTRODUCED WITH THE 27 JULY RESOLUTION INCREASE.

WE HOPE TO IMPLEMENT A CORRECTION BY THE END OF JANUARY, 2011.

AN ANNOUNCEMENT WITH THE ACTUAL IMPLEMENTATION DATE WILL BE MADE

AS SOON AS IT IS DETERMINED. QUESTIONS SHOULD BE ADDRESSED TO

[email protected]

hmm, interesting. thx.

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Scorned lover here. Imma gon wait until inside 5 days before I let my panties drop again.

Smart man, the ensembles are all over the place. I think the odds of us getting decent precip are way higher than with the last aborted storm. Unfortunately, p-type is going to be this storms tightrope.

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I won't start getting excited until I see it 48 to 72 hours out and this year that isn't even a sure thing.

Scorned lover here. Imma gon wait until inside 5 days before I let my panties drop again.

How about when it's actually snowing?

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Isn't that the 192hr problem that NCEP was talking about on the GFS?

Probably, there was a post processing (not model) issue introduced with the July upgrade. Here is the SDM message that was sent out about it:

"SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE

NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS CAMP SPRINGS MD

1526Z THU DEC 23 2010

ATTN...GFS MODEL INFORMATION..

AN INCONSISTENCY HAS BEEN UNCOVERED IN THE GFS 12 HR ACCUMULATED

PRECIPITATION AT FORECAST HOUR 192. THE 12 HR ACCUMULATION DOES

NOT REPRODUCE THE SUM OF THE PREVIOUS 2 SIX HOUR ACCUMULATIONS.

THIS ERROR WAS INTRODUCED WITH THE 27 JULY RESOLUTION INCREASE.

WE HOPE TO IMPLEMENT A CORRECTION BY THE END OF JANUARY, 2011.

AN ANNOUNCEMENT WITH THE ACTUAL IMPLEMENTATION DATE WILL BE MADE

AS SOON AS IT IS DETERMINED. QUESTIONS SHOULD BE ADDRESSED TO

[email protected]"

I haven't looked closely, but any of the precip. totals valid at hr 192 could be suspect (depending on how the scripts are set up and which fields were used to generate the plots)....particularly the 12hr total valid at 192 [side note, the link and file for 06hr precip valid at 192 appears to actually a figure showing the 12 hour precip]. It seems the 24+ figures are (might be?) ok.

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having buckeye post in our thread is almost never good news

it's not good news for me either...

Ji posted a thread in our regional forum last nite to tell me unequivocally this would NOT be a cutter. Lee than posted that I had claimed it would be a cutter, (which i never did).

Just catching up those who think this is an unprovoked troll...it's actually a retaliatory troll

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