mdsnowlover Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 why is this being tracked in this thread? do you have a problem with what I,ve said here??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 weird that blob is there on 192 and not after. maybe it's blizzard hangover... bullseye same general spot. Isn't that the 192hr problem that NCEP was talking about on the GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Isn't that the 192hr problem that NCEP was talking about on the GFS? i guess.. hadnt heard about that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 thats not snowfall thats total precip Opps. Meant total precip. Think you knew that though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 4, 2011 Author Share Posted January 4, 2011 hr 180 low 100mb low east of the va capes, meh long way to go we have a thread for this storm. This thread is called Jan 7-9?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Don Cherry's Jacket Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 LOL at the DCA snowhole So, the inability to measure snow on the airport property goes back to the opening of the place.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 i guess.. hadnt heard about that SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS CAMP SPRINGS MD 1526Z THU DEC 23 2010 ATTN...GFS MODEL INFORMATION.. AN INCONSISTENCY HAS BEEN UNCOVERED IN THE GFS 12 HR ACCUMULATED PRECIPITATION AT FORECAST HOUR 192. THE 12 HR ACCUMULATION DOES NOT REPRODUCE THE SUM OF THE PREVIOUS 2 SIX HOUR ACCUMULATIONS. THIS ERROR WAS INTRODUCED WITH THE 27 JULY RESOLUTION INCREASE. WE HOPE TO IMPLEMENT A CORRECTION BY THE END OF JANUARY, 2011. AN ANNOUNCEMENT WITH THE ACTUAL IMPLEMENTATION DATE WILL BE MADE AS SOON AS IT IS DETERMINED. QUESTIONS SHOULD BE ADDRESSED TO [email protected] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 So, the inability to measure snow on the airport property goes back to the opening of the place.... and/or it's the lowest/warmest spot in the whole area just about Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS CAMP SPRINGS MD 1526Z THU DEC 23 2010 ATTN...GFS MODEL INFORMATION.. AN INCONSISTENCY HAS BEEN UNCOVERED IN THE GFS 12 HR ACCUMULATED PRECIPITATION AT FORECAST HOUR 192. THE 12 HR ACCUMULATION DOES NOT REPRODUCE THE SUM OF THE PREVIOUS 2 SIX HOUR ACCUMULATIONS. THIS ERROR WAS INTRODUCED WITH THE 27 JULY RESOLUTION INCREASE. WE HOPE TO IMPLEMENT A CORRECTION BY THE END OF JANUARY, 2011. AN ANNOUNCEMENT WITH THE ACTUAL IMPLEMENTATION DATE WILL BE MADE AS SOON AS IT IS DETERMINED. QUESTIONS SHOULD BE ADDRESSED TO [email protected] hmm, interesting. thx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 we have a thread for this storm. This thread is called Jan 7-9?? so many wishcasting storm threads i can't keep up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Save it. I am sure it won't be the same come 18z, 00z, 06z, 12z, etc. I won't start getting excited until I see it 48 to 72 hours out and this year that isn't even a sure thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Scorned lover here. Imma gon wait until inside 5 days before I let my panties drop again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 So I just got the Bufkit files in for the 12z.. The good news is that if your north of DC, a very very shallow pocket of sub 32° hangs around through hr. 180 at about 950 mb mark (1400 feet) The bad news is that if your south of DC on this run... yeah, its not pretty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Now this run of the GFS is what I call cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 mid west cutter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Scorned lover here. Imma gon wait until inside 5 days before I let my panties drop again. Smart man, the ensembles are all over the place. I think the odds of us getting decent precip are way higher than with the last aborted storm. Unfortunately, p-type is going to be this storms tightrope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 ^^ hrmph.. not terribly shocking.. gfs current location is problematic at this range imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 I won't start getting excited until I see it 48 to 72 hours out and this year that isn't even a sure thing. Scorned lover here. Imma gon wait until inside 5 days before I let my panties drop again. How about when it's actually snowing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Isn't that the 192hr problem that NCEP was talking about on the GFS? Probably, there was a post processing (not model) issue introduced with the July upgrade. Here is the SDM message that was sent out about it: "SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS CAMP SPRINGS MD 1526Z THU DEC 23 2010 ATTN...GFS MODEL INFORMATION.. AN INCONSISTENCY HAS BEEN UNCOVERED IN THE GFS 12 HR ACCUMULATED PRECIPITATION AT FORECAST HOUR 192. THE 12 HR ACCUMULATION DOES NOT REPRODUCE THE SUM OF THE PREVIOUS 2 SIX HOUR ACCUMULATIONS. THIS ERROR WAS INTRODUCED WITH THE 27 JULY RESOLUTION INCREASE. WE HOPE TO IMPLEMENT A CORRECTION BY THE END OF JANUARY, 2011. AN ANNOUNCEMENT WITH THE ACTUAL IMPLEMENTATION DATE WILL BE MADE AS SOON AS IT IS DETERMINED. QUESTIONS SHOULD BE ADDRESSED TO [email protected]" I haven't looked closely, but any of the precip. totals valid at hr 192 could be suspect (depending on how the scripts are set up and which fields were used to generate the plots)....particularly the 12hr total valid at 192 [side note, the link and file for 06hr precip valid at 192 appears to actually a figure showing the 12 hour precip]. It seems the 24+ figures are (might be?) ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 mid west cutter Jesus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Jesus say hi to Ji Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 4, 2011 Author Share Posted January 4, 2011 Jesus the GGEM hasnt been right all year. Relax Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 having buckeye post in our thread is almost never good news Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 GGEM a mess......wonder if the Euro will follow suit.......now that would be funny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 say hi to Ji see you did say cutter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 At 8 days out, we should all just be thankful that the system is still being shown. Worry about precip type, and amounts... Monday of next week. It's going to change people, a lot. Many times over will it change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 the GGEM hasnt been right all year. Relax You're killing me with your incorrect interpretations of my statements Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 With the GGEM, the 500mb closes off, causing it to turn more sharply. A solution that the GFS was showing yesterday, and not a bad possibility either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 having buckeye post in our thread is almost never good news it's not good news for me either... Ji posted a thread in our regional forum last nite to tell me unequivocally this would NOT be a cutter. Lee than posted that I had claimed it would be a cutter, (which i never did). Just catching up those who think this is an unprovoked troll...it's actually a retaliatory troll Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 mid west cutter congrats Kushh!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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