Ian Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Sounds like a function of the weaker low. Track is the same, right? track is almost exact .. low is about 4mb weaker throughout Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 still about .25 to DC.. most of VA qpf lower than 0z except east where it's about the same That's good news, now I can go play. It looks like my CWWG piece will be OK. I'm not sure Jason's going to like it as I said I thought the odds of 1" or more was 40-50 percent but if someone put a gun to my head and said will dc get snow yes or no, I'd paradoxically tell them yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 If the NOGAPS happened to pull a coup, it would be the most epic coup in recent memory given its track record and verification scores against the rest of the global models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 That's good news, now I can go play. It looks like my CWWG piece will be OK. I'm not sure Jason's going to like it as I said I thought the odds of 1" or more was 40-50 percent but if someone put a gun to my head and said will dc get snow yes or no, I'd paradoxically tell them yes. i think we're about lock step here.. which is good for me more than you i guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Curlyq Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 sadly for them, it is one place's screwing is another's reward Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 LWX upped Tues/Tues NIght POPS to 50 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 If the NOGAPS happened to pull a coup, it would be the most epic coup in recent memory given its track record and verification scores against the rest of the global models. it's nice to hope for the big one but the euro and gfs are pretty close overall so it's hard to think they are totally wrong in their ideas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 i think we're about lock step here.. which is good for me more than you i guess. Always time to adjust later. This threat seems more legit than the last one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 BWI-.27" vs. .24" 0Z run DCA-..22" vs. .21" 0Z run IAD-.19" 12Z and 0Z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 it's nice to hope for the big one but the euro and gfs are pretty close overall so it's hard to think they are totally wrong in their ideas I would be happy with their general idea. I would hope for some extra juice in the 24-48 range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Curlyq Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 BWI-.27" vs. .24" 0Z run DCA-..22" vs. .21" 0Z run IAD-.19" 12Z and 0Z run Any estimates on ratios? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 after the winter so far, if we could get 1-2" tomorrow AM and 3-4" Tues-Wed, I would call it a victory then get greedy thereafter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 overall 500 looked great and then at hr 78 poof guys down south lost alot of precip this run big winners on precip is nj del to williamsburg with 0.50+ ric 0.35 cho .10-.25 lyh same roa same Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 BWI-.27" vs. .24" 0Z run DCA-..22" vs. .21" 0Z run IAD-.19" 12Z and 0Z run exacts on ric orf? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Any estimates on ratios? at least 12:1 with 850's around -7.5 to -8.5C, maybe better if the 500mb law is the main source of the precip, ratios would be higher imho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 exacts on ric orf? RIC-.27" ORF-.50" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 storm goes ENE? You and Ian were differing on location at 102 it was east of outer banks, and tucked sw of hat. Sorry, wasn't worth getting into. Thanks for the PBP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 NYC-.48" BOS-.09" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 PHL-.61 DOV-.48" PHL big winner again they better keep their traps shut, and it ain't like they didn't do incredibly well last year ending up with only a few inches less than BWI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 RIC-.27" ORF-.50" SBY-.50" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Euro has 12Z next Friday at BWI as -10.3C chilly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Euro has 12Z next Friday at BWI as -10.3C chilly Thats about 13 degrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 7, 2011 Author Share Posted January 7, 2011 As I said...just like yesterday a step back at 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 As I said...just like yesterday a step back at 12z you're crazy same qpf for IAD and a couple ticks more for DCA on 12Z Euro vs. 0Z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 As I said...just like yesterday a step back at 12z I am sorry that the models arent showing a 12+ storm for you but I bet most on here would be happy for any snow even if it is a inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 7, 2011 Author Share Posted January 7, 2011 you're crazy same qpf for IAD and a couple ticks more for DCA on 12Z Euro vs. 0Z run your crazy...the clipper we got on Dec 16 will had more qpf than what the euro is showing. This is not the snowstorm JB promised Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 you're crazy same qpf for IAD and a couple ticks more for DCA on 12Z Euro vs. 0Z run maybe he was considering more then just the Euro Overall GFS= slight step back (the h5 does not look as good) GGEM= step back Nogaps= held UKMET= held Euro= held overall most held but gfs and ggem did move slighty in the wrong direction if you want a significant storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 looks like 9-10 day Euro may have a decent overrunning event for us just looking at the crappy Euro site Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 7, 2011 Author Share Posted January 7, 2011 how is this any different from a 1-2 inch clipper? The euro solution sucks. Sorry. 1-2 inches is 1-2 inches whether its a clipper or comes up the coast. The storm sucks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 your crazy...the clipper we got on Dec 16 will had more qpf than what the euro is showing. This is not the snowstorm JB promised he made a forecast he did not promise you anything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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