Dr No Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Nogaps hits us good again... 25-30mm or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Nogaps hits us good again... 25-30mm or so. wow, that's huge for the Gaps' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 7, 2011 Author Share Posted January 7, 2011 DT says gfs for east coast snowstorms is useless after 72 hours so im riding the redflagged nogaps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 If the other globals come in red hot, I will start to think the weak and wimpy GFS portrayal is less likely. Despite upgrades, GFS probably still has a tendency to smash lows and shunt them too far SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Waiting for the 12Z GFS ensemble members. The Op run bugs me how it evolves. Wouldn't be surprised if they show the low slightly stronger and closer to the coast and slowing around VA and MD just as the 06Z ensemble showed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 7, 2011 Author Share Posted January 7, 2011 If the other globals come in red hot, I will start to think the weak and wimpy GFS portrayal is less likely. Despite upgrades, GFS probably still has a tendency to smash lows and shunt them too far SE. I have never seen the Nogaps so robust. What does that mean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 UKMET has a nice track but a pathetic 1015 low at its height. There is always some damn problem with that model. It has either nice track with wimpy low or super-bomb heading due east off Miami. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 7, 2011 Author Share Posted January 7, 2011 UKMET has a nice track but a pathetic 1015 low at its height. There is always some damn problem with that model. It has either nice track with wimpy low or super-bomb heading due east off Miami. Rainshow the forecaster from Philly said the UKMET has been the worst model this season in the way they grade models. Pretty much ignore it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I have never seen the Nogaps so robust. What does that mean? That model has had that solution 5 in a row. Would love to see that verify but would also love to bang Jessica Alba and win a billion dollars. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I dont understand it either. I would like to comment on stuff from the other thread but it is closed. ask the originator and Ian/?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porsche Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 12z ensembles mean at 108 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 7, 2011 Author Share Posted January 7, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Wow, at the 12Z ensemble mean! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 If the other globals come in red hot, I will start to think the weak and wimpy GFS portrayal is less likely. Despite upgrades, GFS probably still has a tendency to smash lows and shunt them too far SE. I think the GFS will be more right than wrong even in this scenario. I still can't see us getting a ballbuster storm with the pattern we have been in and what we typically get in Ninas. We should be happy that we can get a couple inches out of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 DT says gfs for east coast snowstorms is useless after 72 hours so im riding the redflagged nogaps If that's really what he said... then what a dumb statement. Of course, you've been known to "paraphrase." Yet another "This [controversial] met said" post. --- I'm liking the consistency of this threat on the models so far... doesn't seem like there will be too much change for the DC area until we get into the 84h window. That's all I have to say until then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RickinBaltimore Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Ok, that's a donut hole I like to see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 if you want to comment on something in the old thread copy/paste/quote.. not hard. we'll merge them all in the end and leave it open Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porsche Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 H108 Might be a little weaker, but looks like another hit? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Echo on those means...west of the op again it looks like. If so, that has been consistently the case for several of the models. Thoughts on why and/or what it is signaling (if anything)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I think the GFS will be more right than wrong even in this scenario. I still can't see us getting a ballbuster storm with the pattern we have been in and what we typically get in Ninas. We should be happy that we can get a couple inches out of this. I won't hang onto the operational GFS if all the globals and its own ensembles don't agree. I understand worrying about climo and all that, but sometimes it is OK to have some hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I won't hang onto the operational GFS if all the globals and its own ensembles don't agree. I understand worrying about climo and all that, but sometimes it is OK to have some hope. the most amplified solutions dont fit amazingly well into the pattern tho. it could happen but it's a lower chance than what the gfs shows i would think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 7, 2011 Author Share Posted January 7, 2011 i think GGEM looks snowy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 the most amplified solutions dont fit amazingly well into the pattern tho. it could happen but it's a lower chance than what the gfs shows i would think. There is a middle ground. The GFS ensembles have been west of the operational for a while now. They show a solid SECS. Nothing insane like the GGEM from last night but not some strung-out POS like the operational either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 7, 2011 Author Share Posted January 7, 2011 There is a middle ground. The GFS ensembles have been west of the operational for a while now. They show a solid SECS. Nothing insane like the GGEM from last night but not some strung-out POS like the operational either. the good thing is even the most strung out gfs solution(The OPS) gives us 2-4 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 it appears on the above graph that the heaviest precip is in the md/de/va area. Is this correct??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I won't hang onto the operational GFS if all the globals and its own ensembles don't agree. I understand worrying about climo and all that, but sometimes it is OK to have some hope. There is a nicer comfort level with this one as signs of concensus between all models is there as opposed to the last clunker but a bomb like last year still seems remote. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 7, 2011 Author Share Posted January 7, 2011 I think the best we can do with this storm is 6-12. The worse 2-4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 ggem looks like it backed off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 ggem looks like it backed off. It is still a pretty big hit, just more believable now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 GGEM has what, 10mm? It often follows the GFS closely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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