TowsonWeather Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Not sure how well the analogs work but the storms they are showing off the 00ZGFS are interesting. #2 2/6/2010 #3 12/19/2009 #5 1/26/1987 Time sensitive http://www.eas.slu.e...fhr=120&flg=new I'm not familiar with those dates...did we get snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I'm not familiar with those dates...did we get snow? Dec. and Feb. of last season? No, it didn't snow on those dates. High cirrus only. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Dec. and Feb. of last season? No, it didn't snow on those dates. High cirrus only. Hrrmmm...the way the NAM is unfolding so far worries me a smidge. I'll be wicked chafed if we get a token inch tomorrow at the expense of a more robust system next week... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I'm not familiar with those dates...did we get snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 good god if we miss this, and it is still snowing there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 But he might have been stupid so early in the game. Still to get a really big storm the upper lows going to have to close off. Neither the euro or GFS show that solution but the nogaps sure does and the ggem looks pretty wet. I'll be writing something for CWG later this morning. Looking forward to it, thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 But he might have been stupid so early in the game. Still to get a really big storm the upper lows going to have to close off. Neither the euro or GFS show that solution but the nogaps sure does and the ggem looks pretty wet. I'll be writing something for CWG later this morning. wes, how come there is never a "::heavyt snow warning'"' posted anymore like there ustedtobe in earlier forecasting days. That was the sign of a true monster on the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I'm not familiar with those dates...did we get snow? Don't have my snowfall charts since my old computer crashed but these may ring a bell. Dec 19 2009 http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2009/dec/19/dc-area-hit-massive-snowstorm/ Feb 6 2010 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/February_5%E2%80%936,_2010_North_American_blizzard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 nam looks decent at 84 but on the edge of ots and just wow at this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 wes, how come there is never a "::heavyt snow warning'"' posted anymore like there ustedtobe in earlier forecasting days. That was the sign of a true monster on the way. You didn't read the public statement a while back? Winter Storm Warning now covers "snow adv/hvy snow warning" simplified for public reasons. Why do you think last year there were never heavy snow warnings lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Don't have my snowfall charts since my old computer crashed but these may ring a bell. Dec 19 2009 http://www.washingto...sive-snowstorm/ Feb 6 2010 http://en.wikipedia....erican_blizzard I was joking :-) My avatar is from December 18th, 2009. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 It looks very uncertain as to what would happen with the NAM ater the 84 h panel, if were to materialize. Looking at the upper air maps it seems like the energy is trying to make things interesting and could make it in time to pull the storm up the coast. The potential is definitely still there and that's all I'm really looking for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 i dunno how they choose those analogs -- tho it's not shocking since it was spitting out 83 as an analog prior. in the southern stream it might sorta similar initially but doesnt look terribly like those storms last yr to me... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 It looks very uncertain as to what would happen with the NAM ater the 84 h panel, if were to materialize. Looking at the upper air maps it seems like the energy is trying to make things interesting and could make it in time to pull the storm up the coast. The potential is definitely still there and that's all I'm really looking for. Same. I think the SLP is just off the SC coast... but I see alot of energy coming east in the Plains Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 It looks very uncertain as to what would happen with the NAM ater the 84 h panel, if were to materialize. Looking at the upper air maps it seems like the energy is trying to make things interesting and could make it in time to pull the storm up the coast. The potential is definitely still there and that's all I'm really looking for. Yeah the northern energy is really digging hard and trying to make it interesting. The bad news is, the southern piece is a little faster and more suppressed. Gonna be fascinating to watch and see if they can get together over the next few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I think the NAM is setting us up for some variation of the 06z GFS. I could see a fairly long duration light snowfall event as the systems "connect", with a moderate burst near the end as we get the vort energy through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 It looks very uncertain as to what would happen with the NAM ater the 84 h panel, if were to materialize. Looking at the upper air maps it seems like the energy is trying to make things interesting and could make it in time to pull the storm up the coast. The potential is definitely still there and that's all I'm really looking for. Well said. Hard to tell now but the 84 panel isn't nearly as bad as I thought it could be based on earlier panels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I think the NAM is setting us up for some variation of the 06z GFS. I could see a fairly long duration light snowfall event as the systems "connect", with a moderate burst near the end as we get the vort energy through. That's what I was thinking...NAM doesn't look terrible. Maybe a solid 3 to 6 inch snowfall for those north of NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I was joking :-) My avatar is from December 18th, 2009. I see said the blind man. Didn't even notice the avatar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Yeah the northern energy is really digging hard and trying to make it interesting. The bad news is, the southern piece is a little faster and more suppressed. Gonna be fascinating infuriating to watch and see if they can get together over the next few days. Had to do it. Southern piece stays slow and/or the northern piece speeds up a bit, and we're looking good. It doesn't really seem like there's much that needs to happen to increase our chances dramatically of a decent snowfall. Probably easier said than done, though. I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 nam looks decent at 84 but on the edge of ots and just wow at this yeah, see what DT and the NYC folks say about the NAM's 60 hrs+ forecasts for snow lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeanVA Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I think the NAM is setting us up for some variation of the 06z GFS. I could see a fairly long duration light snowfall event as the systems "connect", with a moderate burst near the end as we get the vort energy through. But the 500 mb chart is almost the same as the 00z GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 You didn't read the public statement a while back? Winter Storm Warning now covers "snow adv/hvy snow warning" simplified for public reasons. Why do you think last year there were never heavy snow warnings lol. no sir, I was too busy taking care of my mother who has terminal cancer now!!! I had better things to do. And dig her out of 3ft of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 no sir, I was too busy taking care of my mother who has terminal cancer now!!! I had better things to do. And dig her out of 3ft of snow. I am so sorry to hear that, he can be a bit abrasive at times just ignore it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I am so sorry to hear that, he can be a bit abrasive at times just ignore it. the really additional bad thing is that my father is cripple from old age. Family is dying. We do the best as siblings to take care of them. Thanks. Not trying to be macabe here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 But the 500 mb chart is almost the same as the 00z GFS? 00z and 06z had a Tuesday onset with nearly 48+ hours of snow and 4-6" in the DC. That's my definition of light and long-duration. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 00z and 06z had a Tuesday onset with nearly 48+ hours of snow and 4-6" in the DC. That's my definition of light and long-duration. That would be nice to have Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 00z and 06z had a Tuesday onset with nearly 48+ hours of snow and 4-6" in the DC. That's my definition of light and long-duration. sounds good. Nice light snowfall for a day to two would be a nice treat for us who have had none lately.I,m not greedy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 the really additional bad thing is that my father is cripple from old age. Family is dying. We do the best as siblings to take care of them. Thanks. Not trying to be macabe here. Sorry to hear all this. Thanks for posting this though. Sometimes I need to be reminded that there are much more important things than weather. Sorry, I know this isn't storm related. Maybe, though, we can all keep it in perspective. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 wes, how come there is never a "::heavyt snow warning'"' posted anymore like there ustedtobe in earlier forecasting days. That was the sign of a true monster on the way. They opted for winter storm watches and warnings instead. I think it was a headquarters type decision. I'm not sure why, I liked the heavy snow and hazardous warning of old. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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