ravensrule Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 We saw Wes feeling's already he thought the 0Z GFS is the best we could do around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 ukie looks good for it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 That is right screw them New Yorkers we finally beat them at something . Damn Mitch that edit broke my heart they beat us again. they actually squeeze out another .07" over the next 12 hours....big deal, that won't accumulate to much up there but they are no where near the 1.25-1.5" they kept getting on the models leading up to the Christmas storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 ggem better maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 stays cold afterward too http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=namer&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1024x768&mo=ecmwf≤=850&va=temp&in=5&pl=cf&ft=7day&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 they actually squeeze out another .07" over the next 12 hours....big deal, that won't accumulate to much up there but they are no where near the 1.25-1.5" they kept getting on the models leading up to the Christmas storm I was just teasing anyway, even though i hate New Yorkers i still hope the whole east coast get's rocked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 We saw Wes feeling's already he thought the 0Z GFS is the best we could do around here. i think wes might get more bullish tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 ggem better maps there's that double barreled Low scenario I said I would take see, Buckeye was right when he talked about them as was I when I said they can be juicy g'nite and pleasant dreams Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 i think wes might get more bullish tomorrow If Wes get's bullish tomorrow and the Ravens win Sunday i will come to DC to kiss you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 the NYC forum is funny, several were arguing over what the precip type would be on the GGEM so i figured I would post the precip maps like I did here and they were immediately deleted by someone. I guess they would rather argue then have the answer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Just looking over the 06Z Nam and really don't know how this would play out. Looking at the surface features I like that 1036 high which is in a good position and would maybe argue for a coastal storm. Also like the confluence setting up in the mid Atlantic and the northeast. Seems like the Northern energy is holding back somewhat though and most of the Mets seem to feel that is the key to getting it up the coast. 84 HR 06Z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Looks like the 006 DGEX has a slightly different solution to throw on the table. Hard to read from the charts I have available but it looks like it brings the southern low a little farther north off of Cape Hatteras and the out to sea. Looks like some interaction with that low as it leaves and with the northern energy that is sweeping behind it so it does provide for a decent snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 CoastalWx in the New England thread wrote: 06z ensembles again, west of op. That appeared to be a general theme from last night's runs too. For the red taggers, out of curiosity, is there anything to be drawn from the ops being further east with the storm than their members? Or, more generally, what should the ensembles be used for in guiding an understanding of a developing system? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 06Z GFS looks very promising. Still shows it a little to far off the coast for a MEC in the mid Atlantic but still provides a decent snowfall. Looking at this though really has me wondering how close this is. Not really sure about that extension of the low to the west especially in the second frame. I would think that you would have less of that feature and more of a consolidated low closer to the coast. I am kind of interested in what the ensemble shows. If I were a betting man I would think that there will be some pleasant surprises with the mean and the members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 The 06z GFS ensemble means look very good for a MEC with it being west of the ops track. The precip totals are impressive for a mean. 06Z GFS Mean This is what I was referring to in a previous post. The GFS Op was leaving the low strung out to long coming up the coast whereas the Ensemble mean consolidates it fairly quickly. 06 GFS @120 06 GFS ENS Mean @120 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Wow nice signal from the ensembles! Good thing to wake up to. Let's see if we can continue this trend into the 12z suite! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Euro ensembles were also west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Euro ensembles were also west. Looked like the Euro Op was quick with the low as well. You saying the ensemble members were west I would think that was a sign that the low was a little slower? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Looked like the Euro Op was quick with the low as well. You saying the ensemble members were west I would think that was a sign that the low was a little slower? Never mind just checked for myself. Stalls that low right off the MD, DEL coast. Would love to see that low another 100 miles closer to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I'm encouraged simply because the models said we would get a coating of snow this morning and we got it 12/26 there were a number of short range models calling for 2-4" to the biter end and we got a coating this morning was a baby step, but at least we didn't fall flat on our face with a very minor event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 0Z BOM LOOKS LIKE A HIT!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 0Z BOM LOOKS LIKE A HIT!!!!! how'd you get that mod job again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 how'd you get that mod job again? where is jack frost with his KMA upside down map posting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Looking over the individual 06Z GFS members they are all in pretty good agreement with basically all showing a low closer to the coast then the OP. Around half show a double barrel low or an extension of the low to the west for an extended period of time though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 We saw Wes feeling's already he thought the 0Z GFS is the best we could do around here. But he might have been stupid so early in the game. Still to get a really big storm the upper lows going to have to close off. Neither the euro or GFS show that solution but the nogaps sure does and the ggem looks pretty wet. I'll be writing something for CWG later this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 But he might have been stupid so early in the game. Still to get a really big storm the upper lows going to have to close off. Neither the euro or GFS show that solution but the nogaps sure does and the ggem looks pretty wet. I'll be writing something for CWG later this morning. looking forward to it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 7, 2011 Author Share Posted January 7, 2011 the 13-15 day GFS looks like something the Weenie of the year would draw up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Benchmark Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 the 13-15 day GFS looks like something the Weenie of the year would draw up You mean this storm wont verify? Although not this big of a hit the GFS has been consistent with a monster around this time frame! Im still drooling over the 00Z GGEM for Tuesdays storm. Ill take 1"+ QFP! But then again I am just a weenie... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Wow, anyone look at the SREF's in the long range? I know, I know but still, look at precip field and 500mb at 87 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Not sure how well the analogs work but the storms they are showing off the 00ZGFS are interesting. #2 2/6/2010 #3 12/19/2009 #5 1/26/1987 Time sensitive http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/stats.php?reg=EAST&model=GFS212&fhr=120&flg=new Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.