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Jan 11-12 Model/Forecasting Discussion


Ji

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Tonight's GGEM would look something like this for the LWX region:

-SN starts in KCHO by hr 103

-SN gets into KDCA/KIAD by hr 107

-SN gets into KBWI by hr 108

Mod snows across region by hr 110

Band of heavy snows develops by hr 114 KEZF to KDCA. By 117.. its KBWI and NE.

Snow ends in KCHO hr 117... KEZF is done by 119... KIAD/KDCA still snowing, but very light at 120... BWI still snowing, light to moderate at 120

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i think right now most models give us some snow.. im not sure that ever happened all at once with the last storm

Canadian never did

Ukie never showed the promise it does at this range and never gave us anything in the shorter range either

its all going to come down to whether this system finds a new way to fook us at the end

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Canadian never did

Ukie never showed the promise it does at this range and never gave us anything in the shorter range either

its all going to come down to whether this system finds a new way to fook us at the end

if anyone can be fooked repeatedly it's us

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because I'll lay in bed wondering :arrowhead:

I actually fell asleep between the GFS and the Canadian and now the GEM has my my juices flowing :axe:

I was about to go to bed and the GGEM made me wake up :axe: BTW, FOX 5/NBC 4 were mentioning sig snows possible early next week depending on the track of a coastal low already

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There was still a big spread, though. I remember clinging to the SREFs. I wouldn't have done that if the GFS, NAM, Euro, and RGEM were showing love.

yes... the sref (while apparently second only to the euro on qpf) have never seen so much love as that storm and then it let us down. i think that sharp north/south (or is it east/west) cutoff to precip is hard on the models -- that was a super crazy trough

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When was the last time you saw a clown map that gave 4/5 of the United States at least some snow?

As someone implied, it may be a useless exercise. But when I look closer, it looks like like every state in the lower 48 except Florida has at least some color touching it.

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