Ian Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Indeed. Using one day of model runs to justify "losing a lot of confidence in a storm" ...We all know that's not a good idea especially with the models as of late. this thread has definitely deflated today. it's good to start deflated... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 this thread has definitely deflated today. it's good to start deflated... I'm not even saying that I myself am optimistic...I'm not but wild swings based on one day of model runs don't do any good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 NICE sweet....more of the same Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 You've certainly shifted your tone significantly from less than 24 hours ago :-| And so have the models that were supporting my tune 24 hours ago. The big hit to my confidence was the lack of the Euro coming through last night. That was key for me. I still think it's a decent event though, even if not an amplified monster storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 now this in infuriating; it first showed up on the 18Z gfs and now its on the NAM 0Z run slp in NC that does not move NE God give me strength Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 And so have the models that were supporting my tune 24 hours ago. The big hit to my confidence was the lack of the Euro coming through last night. That was key for me. I still think it's a decent event though, even if not an amplified monster storm. But we all have experience with models having issues. Yes...I know that HPC said it would be easier to forecast. However, that doesn't mean the models won't still have issues. Anybody who uses one days worth of model runs to write off a threat is jumping too early. If this were Sunday I'd be okay with your logic. Could come west at 00z but I'm not a fan of modelology. Point is there is a threat but the specifics are nowhere near resolved. Can't write off OR lock in anything at this time. There IS a middle ground you know of "wait and see" rather than "if EURO comes into agreement I'll lock it in" and "I've lost a lot of my confidence" - after 1 day of models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 my God just shoot me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I've lost a lot of confidence in this system for next week, at least as far as it being an amplified storm. Unless some big changes occur I think our best bet is a prolonged period of light snows. The east to west span on the precip shield is probably going to be the most impressive thing with this storm, well that and record setting snowfall possibilities in the deep south. Due to the extreme rarity of a bigtime heavy snowfall in the south, I guess we can still hold out that climo will win in the end and the polar vortex will shift north back to where it belongs and alow this system some room to climb the coast. Does that mean we can start a thread arguing about how high a NESIS ranking the storm should have if it causes massive chaos in the South, even if they only get a measley 6"? That'd be awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 my God just shoot me Congrats, Duck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 36 hr NAM qpf now, who wants to tell me this winter is not destined to be one of those winters that it always finds a way not to snow at DCA/BWI? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 ji has hijacked mitchnick's account Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 ji has hijacked mitchnick's account hacking = banning. Ji Ban incoming? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 ji has hijacked mitchnick's account I'm starting to think that there is subtle brilliance in JI's stupidity and the worse part is, I can't for the life of me figure out why Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 ji has hijacked mitchnick's account Ji is mitchnick's sockpuppet, but his discipline has broken down and he's posting under the wrong name. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 i will say if someone said we could get a southern wave as nice looking as this coming across the west half of the country/northern mex in a nina yr i might not have believed it. too bad it seems to be useless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 in all honesty, I got that 72/73, 80/81, and 01/02 feeling this afternoon and thought, with all this cold air/blocking and lack of snow, the chances this winter really goes into the gutter is really increasing like I said, I give it another 10 days before calling it a bust, but it just seems the writing is all over the wall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I'm starting to think that there is subtle brilliance in JI's stupidity and the worse part is, I can't for the life of me figure out why i dunno did you see his jb thread from this evening? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 i dunno did you see his jb thread from this evening? no, main forum? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 7, 2011 Author Share Posted January 7, 2011 this looks like my face now when i look at models...cant it all just phase? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 But we all have experience with models having issues. Yes...I know that HPC said it would be easier to forecast. However, that doesn't mean the models won't still have issues. Anybody who uses one days worth of model runs to write off a threat is jumping too early. If this were Sunday I'd be okay with your logic. Could come west at 00z but I'm not a fan of modelology. Point is there is a threat but the specifics are nowhere near resolved. Can't write off OR lock in anything at this time. There IS a middle ground you know of "wait and see" rather than "if EURO comes into agreement I'll lock it in" and "I've lost a lot of my confidence" - after 1 day of models. Come on man cherry picking words out of a post. If you read the context of the entire posts I was very much in the middle ground. Yes I would have felt like 3-6 was a lock if all the models formed a consensus at 5 days - a very rare event indeed. However, that did not happen. Let's let it go man. Also I haven't given up on the storm! Lowering confidence when models start trending away from a big snowstorm is normal, and something you will read from NWS HPC discusssions all the time. It's a probability game and when all models are onto something probability is high and when models are not showing it probability falls. It's pretty simple. Doesn't make sense to hold on to a big idea when the support you have for it has left your side, a mistake the accuweather mets make all the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 i dunno did you see his jb thread from this evening? OK, got it yeah, I read JB this afternoon <ho-hum> let me ask, where did baroclinic_instability come from and why couldn't he have been here last year...he would have been much more tolerable to read Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 this looks like my face now when i look at models...cant it all just phase? and to think JB looks at that face and sees SECS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 OK, got it yeah, I read JB this afternoon <ho-hum> let me ask, where did baroclinic_instability come from and why couldn't he have been here last year...he would have been much more tolerable to read i dunno -- he's on twitter but i think he was here before we connected there.. he knows his pv anomalies tho it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 and to think JB looks at that face and sees SECS it looks kinda like last yr except for the two death spirals in the northern stream Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 i will say if someone said we could get a southern wave as nice looking as this coming across the west half of the country/northern mex in a nina yr i might not have believed it. too bad it seems to be useless. Sort of painful to now be reading about how we are getting screwed by the southern stream being so amped and juicy. This is a season of screwing, it seems. I could see it being pretty historic climo-wise in the SE and NE. They look to be bulls-eyed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 i dunno -- he's on twitter but i think he was here before we connected there.. he knows his pv anomalies tho it seems. should have called it east coast wx to discourage the "know-it-alls" from across the country coming in here and wrecking our weenie frenzie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 just a reminder about the general forum model threads as things run tonight for anyone interested: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Sort of painful to now be reading about how we are getting screwed by the southern stream being so amped and juicy. This is a season of screwing, it seems. I could see it being pretty historic climo-wise in the SE and NE. They look to be bulls-eyed. and there's more salt in the wound a seemingly new way to screw us this winter I guess we have to exhaust all ways possible for us to get screwed before we see anything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 an interesting twist not seen on any other model until tonight's NAM look how the canadian vortex pulls away fast and then a new western lobe comes off the vortex wanting to hook up with the Northern s/w I wonder how that would play out http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/00/index_500_l_loop.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Come on man cherry picking words out of a post. If you read the context of the entire posts I was very much in the middle ground. Yes I would have felt like 3-6 was a lock if all the models formed a consensus at 5 days - a very rare event indeed. However, that did not happen. Let's let it go man. Also I haven't given up on the storm! Lowering confidence when models start trending away from a big snowstorm is normal, and something you will read from NWS HPC discusssions all the time. It's a probability game and when all models are onto something probability is high and when models are not showing it probability falls. It's pretty simple. Doesn't make sense to hold on to a big idea when the support you have for it has left your side, a mistake the accuweather mets make all the time. I think you are misreading me as picking a fight? I am certainly not. There's a difference between saying that your confidence has lowered "somewhat" and saying "I've lost a lot of confidence after today's runs" And the first quote I made of you was in reference to your "If EURO comes in similar I'll lock in at least a SECS" - even that would have been foolish. I'm not cherry picking words. I'm simply backtracking to what you said last night and showing the stark differences in your words today. Sure the models were less robust today if not piss poor but that certainly doesn't mean confidence lowered a lot...model agreement wasn't all that great save for a run or two. Confidence has been quite lowish in general. HPC uses "trend" forecasting, yes. They trend to the solutions that the models are hinting at. They don't make drastic turn arounds, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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