mitchnick Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I am slowly becoming convinced, not just from 18Z models or today's models, that this will go down as a relatively snow less winter as in 5" or less every trough is in the worst position it could be in for us to get snow, yet so very close to being a great spot its been like this since the end of FEB in all honesty, I give it ten days; if we don't see decent snow by then, I'm calling it over until after the pattern completely breaks down and we get a substantial and long thaw whether there is any time left after that, I don't know my prediction should be taken with a grain of salt by everyone with any sense, but that's what my gut says; I've lived through too many winters around here and know when we've got a dog on our hands Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Wes makes me cry. the real question is does this one sink in or are we back at this next day 10 threat? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 6, 2011 Author Share Posted January 6, 2011 Mitch just canceled winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Certainly, the timing for the second SW has gotten longer from reaching the first one-- For some reason, my mind says the southern vorts have moved a tad faster this year while the northern have taken a tad longer. I could squeeze a couple inches out of this, but nothing huge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Am I the only one that believes chaos plays a very large part in the specific outcomes of storms? Some patters do flat out suck. A -PNA/+NAO pattern with a raging SE ridge is probably never going to produce a big snowstorm. This pattern with a historic -NAO is not horrible. Its not the money pattern we had last year with a strong STJ but we have had several near misses. Small changes could have lead to a much snowier outcome from a few storms. I guess I attribute our lack of snow so far to some bad luck just as much as the pattern. The nina is making it more difficult then last year, but that is not going to change and I would rather take my chances with this -AO/-NAO pattern then with anything else we are likely to get this winter, at least before March when wavelengths start to shorten and crazy solutions become possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Mitch just canceled winter! you still can't read I said I'm giving 10 days and if we don;t get anything substantial, I'm calling it a snow less winter of 5" or less (unless we get a huge thaw and there's a shift back to cold, assuming its not too late) calling a winter snow less on 1/16 if you only have 1.5" is not unreasonable based on prior winters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 The H5 energy from the PAV NW has to be more amplified, with a shorter wavelegnth if we want a sstorm thats stronger and closer to the coast, otherwise the flow will stay too progressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 18Z GFS ensemble mean is well NW of the operational. Looks quite different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 the 240 hour total precip map for the euro is funny... there is a little hole over DC/BWI of around .1 when all around is surrounded by over .75 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 the 240 hour total precip map for the euro is funny... there is a little hole over DC/BWI of around .1 when all around is surrounded by over .75 Has it been posted in Ji's thread yet? If not, then it has to! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 you still can't read I said I'm giving 10 days and if we don;t get anything substantial, I'm calling it a snow less winter of 5" or less (unless we get a huge thaw and there's a shift back to cold, assuming its not too late) calling a winter snow less on 1/16 if you only have 1.5" is not unreasonable based on prior winters Well, I think you have to qualify that with only the prior winters that have also been cold but with minimal snow. We've had three winters in just the past seven years that didn't start the snow until mid or late January. None of them were above average snowfall, but all were over 5" total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 To me its still a timing issue... high potential of screwage if the lead southern storm outruns the energy digging in from the Pac NW. Slower evolution allows phasing further SE and a stronger storm closer to the coast. The 18Z ensemble members that are faster with the southern storm illustrate the point; the second storm then moves a little further north than ideal thus bombing too late. Some of the 18Z members are also a little warm as a result... note the few with a second storm in the upper OV. I also just saw the 12Z Euro ensemble mean... the LP positioning at 120 looks pretty good to me. Don't know the QPF amount. Guess I can dig back through the pages of winter is over posts to see... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 The problem is that the troff reaches maximum amplitude over Colorado, then starts lifting out. It is not even very far south at that time. Not very Kuish look at the upper levels, althoug. 4th March 1960 managed to pull this setup off however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Well, I think you have to qualify that with only the prior winters that have also been cold but with minimal snow. We've had three winters in just the past seven years that didn't start the snow until mid or late January. None of them were above average snowfall, but all were over 5" total. I'll put it this way, if we don;t receive at least 4" at BWI between now and 7PM on 1/16/11, then I call this winter a bust and the odds of getting less than 5" very likely sure, if BWI records 6 or 7" some will say bust, but that's for others to decide whether it was or not anyway, the difference that I see from this winter and other winters that started late is 1) they were warm and then got snowy once it turned cold (ala 99/00) or, 2) they had snow events early in the season of substance and then the pattern returned later in the season (ala 78/79) look, if I'm wrong, great, that means that we get snow after 1/16, but I think, in light of 1) all the cold, and 2) the seasonal pattern to date, it ain't really a ballsy call at all, more just pointing out the obvious Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 This winter is like 01/02 without the nice mild temps. Even the bitter but rather dry winter of 76/77 gave us some treats in the first half of January. This winter is sucky on so many levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 This winter is like 01/02 without the nice mild temps. Even the bitter but rather dry winter of 76/77 gave us some treats in the first half of January. This winter is sucky on so many levels. 1980-81........very cold but awful with snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atlas Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 This winter is like 01/02 without the nice mild temps. Even the bitter but rather dry winter of 76/77 gave us some treats in the first half of January. This winter is sucky on so many levels. I love it, were 1 week into January, wow..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Don't give up until 12z tomorrow guys. Stay with me here.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Don't give up until 12z tomorrow guys. Stay with me here.. I liked the GFS and Euro ensembles today. Would not be at all surprised to see a correction NW tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheesyPoofs Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I liked the GFS and Euro ensembles today. Would not be at all surprised to see a correction NW tonight. The individual 18z GFS ensembles actually look better than I would've guessed. Does not appear as if its a case of one or two extreme outliers pulling the mean west, as a decent number look ok/good for us. http://raleighwx.ame...rs/18zf024.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Perhaps we end up getting grazed? Not sure. I recall somebody said earlier it's either a hit or way OTS...don't know if that has any merit. I'll wait until 12z for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Don't give up until 12z tomorrow guys. Stay with me here.. Bro I'm not giving up til 12z SUNDAY. C'mon now, This is all we got. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I liked the GFS and Euro ensembles today. Would not be at all surprised to see a correction NW tonight. i think we're still in the hunt for a light to mod event though im mostly hoping for the vortex north to lift a bit which may be as futile as hoping for awesome amplification with so many northern stream waves around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Don't give up until 12z tomorrow guys. Stay with me here.. Give up now, the trend west never starts until you abondon all hope. It's Murphies Law of winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Bro I'm not giving up til 12z SUNDAY. C'mon now, This is all we got. Thats my guess, the GFS comes back Saturday, then the rest of Guidance 12z Sunday, If this were to happen. Things keep trending a slower buying solutions more time to shift north. But we should probably ignore all runs until the S/W gets all the way onsure, maybe at around 00z Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I've lost a lot of confidence in this system for next week, at least as far as it being an amplified storm. Unless some big changes occur I think our best bet is a prolonged period of light snows. The east to west span on the precip shield is probably going to be the most impressive thing with this storm, well that and record setting snowfall possibilities in the deep south. Due to the extreme rarity of a bigtime heavy snowfall in the south, I guess we can still hold out that climo will win in the end and the polar vortex will shift north back to where it belongs and alow this system some room to climb the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I've lost a lot of confidence in this system for next week, at least as far as it being an amplified storm. Unless some big changes occur I think our best bet is a prolonged period of light snows. The east to west span on the precip shield is probably going to be the most impressive thing with this storm, well that and record setting snowfall possibilities in the deep south. Due to the extreme rarity of a bigtime heavy snowfall in the south, I guess we can still hold out that climo will win in the end and the polar vortex will shift north back to where it belongs and alow this system some room to climb the coast. You've certainly shifted your tone significantly from less than 24 hours ago :-| Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Druff Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 You've certainly shifted your tone significantly from less than 24 hours ago :-| Modelologist. Gotta love it. From locking it in to locking it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 NICE FWIW regarding the blocking....the Euro weeklies that came out tonight show a huge west based -NAO persisting through the first week of February. They aren't always accurate after the first two weeks, but they have been by far the best this winter so far at showing the sustained blocking when many ensemble suites have tried to break it down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Modelologist. Gotta love it. From locking it in to locking it out. Indeed. Using one day of model runs to justify "losing a lot of confidence in a storm" ...We all know that's not a good idea especially with the models as of late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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