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Jan 11-12 Model/Forecasting Discussion


Ji

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I am slowly becoming convinced, not just from 18Z models or today's models, that this will go down as a relatively snow less winter as in 5" or less

every trough is in the worst position it could be in for us to get snow, yet so very close to being a great spot

its been like this since the end of FEB

in all honesty, I give it ten days; if we don't see decent snow by then, I'm calling it over until after the pattern completely breaks down and we get a substantial and long thaw

whether there is any time left after that, I don't know

my prediction should be taken with a grain of salt by everyone with any sense, but that's what my gut says; I've lived through too many winters around here and know when we've got a dog on our hands

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Certainly, the timing for the second SW has gotten longer from reaching the first one--

For some reason, my mind says the southern vorts have moved a tad faster this year while the northern have taken a tad longer.

I could squeeze a couple inches out of this, but nothing huge.

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Am I the only one that believes chaos plays a very large part in the specific outcomes of storms? Some patters do flat out suck. A -PNA/+NAO pattern with a raging SE ridge is probably never going to produce a big snowstorm. This pattern with a historic -NAO is not horrible. Its not the money pattern we had last year with a strong STJ but we have had several near misses. Small changes could have lead to a much snowier outcome from a few storms. I guess I attribute our lack of snow so far to some bad luck just as much as the pattern. The nina is making it more difficult then last year, but that is not going to change and I would rather take my chances with this -AO/-NAO pattern then with anything else we are likely to get this winter, at least before March when wavelengths start to shorten and crazy solutions become possible.

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Mitch just canceled winter!

you still can't read :arrowhead:

I said I'm giving 10 days and if we don;t get anything substantial, I'm calling it a snow less winter of 5" or less (unless we get a huge thaw and there's a shift back to cold, assuming its not too late)

calling a winter snow less on 1/16 if you only have 1.5" is not unreasonable based on prior winters

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you still can't read :arrowhead:

I said I'm giving 10 days and if we don;t get anything substantial, I'm calling it a snow less winter of 5" or less (unless we get a huge thaw and there's a shift back to cold, assuming its not too late)

calling a winter snow less on 1/16 if you only have 1.5" is not unreasonable based on prior winters

Well, I think you have to qualify that with only the prior winters that have also been cold but with minimal snow. We've had three winters in just the past seven years that didn't start the snow until mid or late January. None of them were above average snowfall, but all were over 5" total.

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To me its still a timing issue... high potential of screwage if the lead southern storm outruns the energy digging in from the Pac NW. Slower evolution allows phasing further SE and a stronger storm closer to the coast.

The 18Z ensemble members that are faster with the southern storm illustrate the point; the second storm then moves a little further north than ideal thus bombing too late.

Some of the 18Z members are also a little warm as a result... note the few with a second storm in the upper OV.

I also just saw the 12Z Euro ensemble mean... the LP positioning at 120 looks pretty good to me. Don't know the QPF amount. Guess I can dig back through the pages of winter is over posts to see...

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Well, I think you have to qualify that with only the prior winters that have also been cold but with minimal snow. We've had three winters in just the past seven years that didn't start the snow until mid or late January. None of them were above average snowfall, but all were over 5" total.

I'll put it this way, if we don;t receive at least 4" at BWI between now and 7PM on 1/16/11, then I call this winter a bust and the odds of getting less than 5" very likely

sure, if BWI records 6 or 7" some will say bust, but that's for others to decide whether it was or not

anyway, the difference that I see from this winter and other winters that started late is 1) they were warm and then got snowy once it turned cold (ala 99/00) or, 2) they had snow events early in the season of substance and then the pattern returned later in the season (ala 78/79)

look, if I'm wrong, great, that means that we get snow after 1/16, but I think, in light of 1) all the cold, and 2) the seasonal pattern to date, it ain't really a ballsy call at all, more just pointing out the obvious

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This winter is like 01/02 without the nice mild temps. Even the bitter but rather dry winter of 76/77 gave us some treats in the first half of January. This winter is sucky on so many levels.

I love it, were 1 week into January, wow.....

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I liked the GFS and Euro ensembles today. Would not be at all surprised to see a correction NW tonight.

The individual 18z GFS ensembles actually look better than I would've guessed. Does not appear as if its a case of one or two extreme outliers pulling the mean west, as a decent number look ok/good for us.

http://raleighwx.ame...rs/18zf024.html

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I liked the GFS and Euro ensembles today. Would not be at all surprised to see a correction NW tonight.

i think we're still in the hunt for a light to mod event though im mostly hoping for the vortex north to lift a bit which may be as futile as hoping for awesome amplification with so many northern stream waves around.

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Bro I'm not giving up til 12z SUNDAY.

C'mon now,

This is all we got.

Thats my guess, the GFS comes back Saturday, then the rest of Guidance 12z Sunday, If this were to happen. Things keep trending a slower buying solutions more time to shift north. But we should probably ignore all runs until the S/W gets all the way onsure, maybe at around 00z Sunday.

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I've lost a lot of confidence in this system for next week, at least as far as it being an amplified storm. Unless some big changes occur I think our best bet is a prolonged period of light snows. The east to west span on the precip shield is probably going to be the most impressive thing with this storm, well that and record setting snowfall possibilities in the deep south. Due to the extreme rarity of a bigtime heavy snowfall in the south, I guess we can still hold out that climo will win in the end and the polar vortex will shift north back to where it belongs and alow this system some room to climb the coast.

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I've lost a lot of confidence in this system for next week, at least as far as it being an amplified storm. Unless some big changes occur I think our best bet is a prolonged period of light snows. The east to west span on the precip shield is probably going to be the most impressive thing with this storm, well that and record setting snowfall possibilities in the deep south. Due to the extreme rarity of a bigtime heavy snowfall in the south, I guess we can still hold out that climo will win in the end and the polar vortex will shift north back to where it belongs and alow this system some room to climb the coast.

You've certainly shifted your tone significantly from less than 24 hours ago :-|

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NICE

FWIW regarding the blocking....the Euro weeklies that came out tonight show a huge west based -NAO persisting through the first week of February. They aren't always accurate after the first two weeks, but they have been by far the best this winter so far at showing the sustained blocking when many ensemble suites have tried to break it down.

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