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Jan 11-12 Model/Forecasting Discussion


Ji

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Point is, they made a forecast about five days out. You're a met, why not make one now and let's see whose forecast comes closest to verifying.

The article basically parrots the map. Talking about ice for Richmond and Atlanta and snow only for the "interior South", which apparently means TN and KY.

Keep swinging...

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If the Accuweather forecast verifies, I will personally bump troll every hater here until 'cane season. :devilsmiley:

why do people who use climo/logic/understanding of patterns get labeled haters? we could certaily still have a big snow but the odds are not terribly favorable.

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Point is, they made a forecast about five days out. You're a met, why not make one now and let's see whose forecast comes closest to verifying.

Have you see any other mets, anywhere, make a map for next week? Seriously, I'm curious to know.

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Point is, they made a forecast about five days out. You're a met, why not make one now and let's see whose forecast comes closest to verifying.

Most mets wont make maps five days out, because they know better than that. They may put a snowflake in the 5 day forecast and mention the potential is there but they arent going to lay out a geographic map and article saying who is getting snow and ice this far out, it is ridiculous to do that. The only reason like mentioned above is they do it for the hits, Accu wx is a business, the more hits and advertising, the more money. It is that simple

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I don't know, I'm not a met. What did they rely on before the models? Are you saying that before the models became used, that no maps like that were ever made?

Not 5 days out into the future. That's really the issue. At that time range with the models all over the place, it's better not to put out such a map. This is at least the 3rd one they've posted like that for here this year saying dc would get heavy snow.

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Look at what this winter has done to you!!!

Hugging the most pathetic model if it shows snow. :P

i want a big snow as much as anyone here.. i just dont feel like lying to myself to get there in my head

i've seen a million day 5-10 snowstorms

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If the Accuweather forecast verifies, I will personally bump troll every hater here until 'cane season. :devilsmiley:

Sure it could verify but they are at least 0-2 this year in forecasting major snowstorms and even think they mentioned on around Thanksgiving as I was asked to write something on the CWG to counter it.

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Not 5 days out into the future. That's really the issue. At that time range with the models all over the place, it's better not to put out such a map. This is at least the 3rd one they've posted like that for here this year saying dc would get heavy snow.

And we all know how that worked out

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No, I haven't, but Accuweather made a forecast for you to complain about and, not surprisingly I really haven't seen anything from anyone on this board to counter what they said with their reasoning for disagreeing with them.

Have you see any other mets, anywhere, make a map for next week? Seriously, I'm curious to know.

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Here's what I wrote for the Capital Weather Gang.

There are still two possible scenarios that depend on how two upper level features interact with each other. One in which the two features essentially remain separate and storm tracks across the gulf and off the southeast coast and then out to sea with giving DC little or no snow and another in which they phase (mesh together) and the low starts moving up the coast. This year, systems have had trouble phasing early enough to give us to hold the low close enough to the coast for us to get significant snowfall. The GFS has trended away from the phased solution towards the European model's out to sea solution. Because of the inherent difficulty in getting phasing, the more likely scenario is for the storm to scoot out to sea. However, we're still looking so far in the future that we cannot rule out a solution that stays closer to the coast which would offer DC accumulating snow as several ensemble members have such a track. There still is considerable uncertainty about the track of the potential storm and either of these solutions remains possible.

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Most mets wont make maps five days out, because they know better than that. They may put a snowflake in the 5 day forecast and mention the potential is there but they arent going to lay out a geographic map and article saying who is getting snow and ice this far out, it is ridiculous to do that. The only reason like mentioned above is they do it for the hits, Accu wx is a business, the more hits and advertising, the more money. It is that simple

1st Guess:

No, I haven't, but Accuweather made a forecast for you to complain about and, not surprisingly I really haven't seen anything from anyone on this board to counter what they said with their reasoning for disagreeing with them.

See first post above

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No, I haven't, but Accuweather made a forecast for you to complain about and, not surprisingly I really haven't seen anything from anyone on this board to counter what they said with their reasoning for disagreeing with them.

I don't visit Accuweather's site, I saw that map posted elsewhere and found it loltastic

I'm no met, so I don't know all the dynamics and parameters that are necessary to make that outcome come to fruition. Can you explain it all to me please?

Otherwise, I'll stick to reading what the guys in RED have to say, watch the models and hope for some consistency.

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Hee's what I wrote for the Capital Weather Gang.

There are still two possible scenarios that depend on how two upper level features interact with each other. One in which the two features essentially remain separate and storm tracks across the gulf and off the southeast coast and then out to sea with giving DC little or no snow and another in which they phase (mesh together) and the low starts moving up the coast. This year, systems have had trouble phasing early enough to give us to hold the low close enough to the coast for us to get significant snowfall. The GFS has trended away from the phased solution towards the European model's out to sea solution. Because of the inherent difficulty in getting phasing, the more likely scenario is for the storm to scoot out to sea. However, we're still looking so far in the future that we cannot rule out a solution that stays closer to the coast which would offer DC accumulating snow as several ensemble members have such a track. There still is considerable uncertainty about the track of the potential storm and either of these solutions remains possible.

Thank you Wes. As usual, nicely done and very level headed.

Eagle Man - here is your reason to why ACCUWEATHER is all about the money and not about being serious.

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I don't know. The issue with me is that they, for some reason, made the call five days out. Now there were qualifiers in the write-up, words like "probably" and the like, but they still put their reputation on the line. It is a business, is my point. If it verifies, people will talk about it and that's the business side of it. Is their forecast so out on a limb that it is ridiculous? If someone thinks so, please enlighten me. I know what the models show now but as everyone knows, they will change.

Not 5 days out into the future. That's really the issue. At that time range with the models all over the place, it's better not to put out such a map. This is at least the 3rd one they've posted like that for here this year saying dc would get heavy snow.

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I don't visit Accuweather's site, I saw that map posted elsewhere and found it loltastic

I'm no met, so I don't know all the dynamics and parameters that are necessary to make that outcome come to fruition. Can you explain it all to me please?

Otherwise, I'll stick to reading what the guys in RED have to say, watch the models and hope for some consistency.

almost pointless to have a disagreement with him, it'll get you nowhere.

almost like taking a knife to a gun fight.

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I don't know. The issue with me is that they, for some reason, made the call five days out. Now there were qualifiers in the write-up, words like "probably" and the like, but they still put their reputation on the line. It is a business, is my point. If it verifies, people will talk about it and that's the business side of it. Is their forecast so out on a limb that it is ridiculous? If someone thinks so, please enlighten me. I know what the models show now but as everyone knows, they will change.

yes their forecast is ridiculous

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