mappy Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 He always has and probably will always be the only sane person in here. Which sane person spends over 300 hours so far this winter tracking 1.7 inches of snow . I think you need to take a break. Enough already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 was the latest dgex good? how's about the jma or nogaps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 This is an offtopic question but I have been thinking about it for a couple of years. The most reliable and common events around here (2-4 or 3-6) used to be the standard run of the mill overrunning even. No perfect timing big bomb needed. Easy to track and easy to watch. Why have these events been non-existent lately? They used to happen (along with ice storms) quite often. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paxpatriot Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Am I crazy, or do the models normally over-do the PV this far out on a storm? Any thoughts on whether this may relax a bit as we get closer to the storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 was the latest dgex good? how's about the jma or nogaps? CRAS blitzes us when you picture it past 84h Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 was the latest dgex good? how's about the jma or nogaps? They were not great but their ensembles were way west . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 was the latest dgex good? how's about the jma or nogaps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 hmm, not terrible for se va congrats -- again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 ric 0.30" dc 0.10" orf 0.50" lyh 0.25" cho .15" bwi 0.10 Is that storm total? The PHL/NYC folks with special Euro access powers are talking .25"+ for PHL/Jersey/LI. Or does this storm do another "screw DC/MD" left hook? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 hr 228 a little snow for southern va 0.10 to ric small donut hole 0.00" over dc again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Is that storm total? The PHL/NYC folks with special Euro access powers are talking .25"+ for PHL/Jersey/LI. Or does this storm do another "screw DC/MD" left hook? only south jersey .25"+.. they are dummies up there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I am not necessarily confident but at the same time we are now getting into the range where the models have been shiften way south and east with storms the last 2 years. It is true that when they adjusted westward in the end with the last 2 storms it was still not enough to do us any good, but at this range with the Dec 26th storm many of the models had that storm also non existant. They squashed it out to bermuda. I would be bothered if that happens in the next few runs, but having a huge snowstorm for NC at this range does not phase me. If given 5 options for what I would want to see for a potential storm at 100 hours, a bullzeye north, south, east, west, or right over us...I would choose to have it just south of us at this range. I also like that this time there is more energy and moisture coming from the south and west initially. We are not relying on a west trend so much as a north trend. The last 2 storms we needed a west trend and those seem to be a lot less common. We just need the PV to relax some and allow the energy to bundle more and consolidate and we are good. The improvements we need actually play into what the normal model bias is for this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Is that storm total? The PHL/NYC folks with special Euro access powers are talking .25"+ for PHL/Jersey/LI. Or does this storm do another "screw DC/MD" left hook? 0.25 southern jersey to del LI ~0.10" picture a backwards L from philly to ches. bay to ric--- dc in the hole again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SNO Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I am not necessarily confident but at the same time we are now getting into the range where the models have been shiften way south and east with storms the last 2 years. It is true that when they adjusted westward in the end with the last 2 storms it was still not enough to do us any good, but at this range with the Dec 26th storm many of the models had that storm also non existant. They squashed it out to bermuda. I would be bothered if that happens in the next few runs, but having a huge snowstorm for NC at this range does not phase me. If given 5 options for what I would want to see for a potential storm at 100 hours, a bullzeye north, south, east, west, or right over us...I would choose to have it just south of us at this range. I also like that this time there is more energy and moisture coming from the south and west initially. We are not relying on a west trend so much as a north trend. The last 2 storms we needed a west trend and those seem to be a lot less common. We just need the PV to relax some and allow the energy to bundle more and consolidate and we are good. The improvements we need actually play into what the normal model bias is for this range. I agree 100%!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I am not necessarily confident but at the same time we are now getting into the range where the models have been shiften way south and east with storms the last 2 years. It is true that when they adjusted westward in the end with the last 2 storms it was still not enough to do us any good, but at this range with the Dec 26th storm many of the models had that storm also non existant. They squashed it out to bermuda. I would be bothered if that happens in the next few runs, but having a huge snowstorm for NC at this range does not phase me. If given 5 options for what I would want to see for a potential storm at 100 hours, a bullzeye north, south, east, west, or right over us...I would choose to have it just south of us at this range. I also like that this time there is more energy and moisture coming from the south and west initially. We are not relying on a west trend so much as a north trend. The last 2 storms we needed a west trend and those seem to be a lot less common. We just need the PV to relax some and allow the energy to bundle more and consolidate and we are good. The improvements we need actually play into what the normal model bias is for this range. lolz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 only south jersey .25"+.. they are dummies up there if that is .25 than ric is .50 in thier eyes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I am not necessarily confident but at the same time we are now getting into the range where the models have been shiften way south and east with storms the last 2 years. It is true that when they adjusted westward in the end with the last 2 storms it was still not enough to do us any good, but at this range with the Dec 26th storm many of the models had that storm also non existant. They squashed it out to bermuda. I would be bothered if that happens in the next few runs, but having a huge snowstorm for NC at this range does not phase me. If given 5 options for what I would want to see for a potential storm at 100 hours, a bullzeye north, south, east, west, or right over us...I would choose to have it just south of us at this range. I also like that this time there is more energy and moisture coming from the south and west initially. We are not relying on a west trend so much as a north trend. The last 2 storms we needed a west trend and those seem to be a lot less common. We just need the PV to relax some and allow the energy to bundle more and consolidate and we are good. The improvements we need actually play into what the normal model bias is for this range. im pretty sure most of the globals were showing a bomb of some sort in this range for dec 26... many were too far east but it wasnt like they had no clue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 How does the low placement compare to today's GFS and GGEM? Has the Euro "hopped" over them and is it farther west now? Or have they all found a middle ground? euro low hugs the gulf coast all the way to fl. then drifts nne Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 im pretty sure most of the globals were showing a bomb of some sort in this range for dec 26... many were too far east but it wasnt like they had no clue only the Euro did...the other models had completely lost the storm at this range. Then the euro lost it and for a day no guidance had much of anything. Then the GFS and GGEM brough it back followed by the Euro. We are at the point now where the GFS/GGEM/UKMET were so far out to sea it was funny with that storm. If you mean the Euro had a bomb you are right...then at day 4 it shifted way OTS. It was day 7-10 that all the models had some kind of good storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 we're also quickly getting into a range where we can start to believe the models more.. though this yr maybe not. but once we get thru tonight etc we're not all that far out anymore especially when you consider it's in the gom 2 days sooner than here etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris21 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 This is an offtopic question but I have been thinking about it for a couple of years. The most reliable and common events around here (2-4 or 3-6) used to be the standard run of the mill overrunning even. No perfect timing big bomb needed. Easy to track and easy to watch. Why have these events been non-existent lately? They used to happen (along with ice storms) quite often. The difference is prob. explained by the fact that you weren't watching every model run every six hours for those storms rather than some dramatic shift in climatology. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 only south jersey .25"+.. they are dummies up there lolz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 dc in the hole again Sweet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bjohnson102184 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Let's grow up ....pull your big boy pants up and stop being so negative we have a good amount of runs to go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 only the Euro did...the other models had completely lost the storm at this range. Then the euro lost it and for a day no guidance had much of anything. Then the GFS and GGEM brough it back followed by the Euro. We are at the point now where the GFS/GGEM/UKMET were so far out to sea it was funny with that storm. If you mean the Euro had a bomb you are right...then at day 4 it shifted way OTS. It was day 7-10 that all the models had some kind of good storm. dont think so.. just went back and read the old thread to verify. the ggem/ukmet were a huge bomb but north / east of us toward sene / maine etc. it wasnt like they had nothing all the time or were just tiny waves going east. feel free to peruse yourself.. it's funny, you see almost the exact same comments from the exact same people in the exact same range. http://www.americanw...t/page__st__540 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Henry Marg. said today that next week's storm should be coming up the coast due to the trough (I think) in the middle of the country and its positioning on the GFS. He says the EURO is unreliable and he discounts it. we're also quickly getting into a range where we can start to believe the models more.. though this yr maybe not. but once we get thru tonight etc we're not all that far out anymore especially when you consider it's in the gom 2 days sooner than here etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NattyBo Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 dont think so.. just went back and read the old thread to verify. the ggem/ukmet were a huge bomb but north / east of us toward sene / maine etc. it wasnt like they had nothing all the time or were just tiny waves going east. feel free to peruse yourself.. it's funny, you see almost the exact same comments from the exact same people in the exact same range. http://www.americanw...t/page__st__540 I really don't mean to challenge you or whatever, because obviously I'm just a who comes here to try and learn a little, and you're right with that link, but I do specifically remember a few runs of the UKMET had the 26th storm closer to Europe than to the CONUS (hyperbolicly speaking) and then one run it literally shifted like 600 miles west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I really don't mean to challenge you or whatever, because obviously I'm just a who comes here to try and learn a little, and you're right with that link, but I do specifically remember a few runs of the UKMET had the 26th storm closer to Europe than to the CONUS and then one run it literally shifted like 600 miles west. it's possible.. but i see comments talking about the bomb in this range. there was less consistency overall, but the point im making is it's not like there was no threat other than the euro until 2 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Henry Marg. said today that next week's storm should be coming up the coast due to the trough (I think) in the middle of the country and its positioning on the GFS. He says the EURO is unreliable and he discounts it. I guess it doesnt show enough snow in his backyard then, throw the model runs out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 lol i didnt even see this at the top of my link but the extrapolated nam gives us like 3 feet so i think we're ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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