Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 hold on folks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 1-800-784-2433 http://suicidehotlines.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 low is just drifting new batch of precip breaking out over central eastern va Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 precip much further north this run .25 to ric 0.05 to dc so far had 0.05 for ric an 0 for dc at 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 storm just pulling away at hr 138 0z was hundreds of miles east at this time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Damn i was right Phin it does look better. You owe me lunch . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 The PV has been the crusher all season long. The very thing that is keeping us from torching is what kills our shots. The PV has not been crushing things... NYC just got 20" of snow how did that happen if the PV was suppressing things south of us???? Truth is the PV is almost always further north then the models will show it from 5 days out. If the PV is the only problem I think we will end up ok. The problem with the 2 previous storms was timing issues with the phase NOT the PV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 ric 0.30" dc 0.10" orf 0.50" lyh 0.25" cho .15" bwi 0.10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 How does the low placement compare to today's GFS and GGEM? Has the Euro "hopped" over them and is it farther west now? Or have they all found a middle ground? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 6, 2011 Author Share Posted January 6, 2011 wow...an entire inch! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 wow...an entire inch! Randy don't you dare unless you want a post restriction . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 ric 0.30" dc 0.10" orf 0.50" lyh 0.25" cho .15" bwi 0.10 Well, with the cold air in place we may see 120 to 1 ratios so it looks like a foot for DC-BWI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 wow...an entire inch! You know your not getting an inch, you are either getting 3-6 4-8 or squat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 The PV has not been crushing things... NYC just got 20" of snow how did that happen if the PV was suppressing things south of us???? Truth is the PV is almost always further north then the models will show it from 5 days out. If the PV is the only problem I think we will end up ok. The problem with the 2 previous storms was timing issues with the phase NOT the PV. Not completely true. part of the phasing problems for here with the decd 26 storm was the PV hanging in too long to allow the flow to back enough to hold the low closer to the coast. Once it moves a little farther east the flow could back and the phasing occurred. If you look at the 12Z gfs, it's shearing that second shortwave as it approaches us which doesn't allow the flow to back quickly enough to pull the southern low northward enough to get. At least that's my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 ric 0.30" dc 0.10" orf 0.50" lyh 0.25" cho .15" bwi 0.10 Not too dissimilar to the GFS Ensemble mean that mitchnik posted a few pages back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 The PV has not been crushing things... NYC just got 20" of snow how did that happen if the PV was suppressing things south of us???? Truth is the PV is almost always further north then the models will show it from 5 days out. If the PV is the only problem I think we will end up ok. The problem with the 2 previous storms was timing issues with the phase NOT the PV. Not worth arguing over. We all know your analysis of everything is always correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 There is a huge disconnect between the best H5 energy and the surface. Initially there is good reason for this because the first vort races out ahead, sparks a low, but then washes out. The thing is later on the models fail to consolidate things around the best upper level support. This is a common model error. Often the models fail to conserve energy and bundle it and leave it way too diffuse. This allows too much energy to escape east and thus a bogus storm track and less intisity at day 5 then reality. This smacks of that kind of situation. Of course the problem is this does not work everytime. We saw it work in December last year, and again in February. We saw it fail in early march when the models were correct in seeing that timing would be off and the phase would take too long to consolidate energy and the low would escape. There is no way to really know but this is something models do a lot and often times when we get inside 72 hours they start to consolidate the energy more and you see the second wave become stronger and the first steals less energy to the east. This is not a bad spot to be at 100 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Not completely true. part of the phasing problems for here with the decd 26 storm was the PV hanging in too long to allow the flow to back enough to hold the low closer to the coast. Once it moves a little farther east the flow could back and the phasing occurred. If you look at the 12Z gfs, it's shearing that second shortwave as it approaches us which doesn't allow the flow to back quickly enough to pull the southern low northward enough to get. At least that's my opinion. Thanks, Wes. You explained it way better than my over-simplification Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Really good agreement between the GFS and Euro... its really just the strength and timing of the PAC NW and southern energy that will drive the solution. HPC was right, with no energy coming from Canada modeling will be more consistent. both these features will be onshore tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 You know your not getting an inch, you are either getting 3-6 4-8 or squat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 This has January 2011 2000 written all over it. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Not too dissimilar to the GFS Ensemble mean that mitchnik posted a few pages back. Looks like we get our/DC precip with the upper trough/vort as it swings through. The storm track is still too far to the east for us to get a big hit. Still it's way out there in time so the movement of the various players are likely to change several more times as we approach the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Not completely true. part of the phasing problems for here with the decd 26 storm was the PV hanging in too long to allow the flow to back enough to hold the low closer to the coast. Once it moves a little farther east the flow could back and the phasing occurred. If you look at the 12Z gfs, it's shearing that second shortwave as it approaches us which doesn't allow the flow to back quickly enough to pull the southern low northward enough to get. At least that's my opinion. Oh I agree the problem on the models right now for this storm is the PV. I am just saying with the last storm our problem was not so much the PV. With the Dec 26th storm you are right but that was a whiff for everyone. I do think the PV will probably relax more then the models will show at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
budice2002 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 From FootHillsNC in the southern That vortex is long gone and serves to keep the southern stream on a good track, climo speaking. Its really not hurting us I don't think, it wil act to keep this from going to DC. In my opinon, NC and northern SC will do about as well as any place else, I'm not going by the verbatim output either (alhtough .75" pretty widespread is nothing to sneeze at). With the lingering inverted trough, NC may in fact be the snowiest state when all is said and done. I really like the trends, and couldn't have hoped for better run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 nothing more painful than a season of near misses Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Not completely true. part of the phasing problems for here with the decd 26 storm was the PV hanging in too long to allow the flow to back enough to hold the low closer to the coast. Once it moves a little farther east the flow could back and the phasing occurred. If you look at the 12Z gfs, it's shearing that second shortwave as it approaches us which doesn't allow the flow to back quickly enough to pull the southern low northward enough to get. At least that's my opinion. Looks like we get our/DC precip with the upper trough/vort as it swings through. The storm track is still too far to the east for us to get a big hit. Still it's way out there in time so the movement of the various players are likely to change several more times as we approach the event. Thank you Wes for providing some sanity in here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Thank you Wes for providing some sanity in here. He always has and probably will always be the only sane person in here. Which sane person spends over 300 hours so far this winter tracking 1.7 inches of snow . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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