WxUSAF Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 GFS and GGEM are still showing snow into DC/MD, just less than before. Not a complete flip to straight out to sea with nothing north of the NC/VA line here. 84hr NAM still looks really good too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 wet blanket Indeed you are! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 And I appreciate those who are clearly superior to the rest of us calling us out. Just a question... certainly the trends are not in our favor... one model run or not. That probably would've been a better answer. One run is not a trend. 6z had the storm closer to the coast than the 00z did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris21 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Why the hell do we put ourselves through this crap? Especially on a year like this one. MY GOD I need a new hobby. The answer lies in the fact that there is an element of absolute uncertainty in the weather. Anything is possible, I remember this board at around 2-3 am Feb. 10th, you would have thought we wouldn't have gotten another flake. Ended up with over a foot in Bethesda. Same thing with sal****er fishing with me, you just never know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 And I appreciate those who are clearly superior to the rest of us calling us out. Just a question... certainly the trends are not in our favor... one model run or not. That probably would've been a better answer. What trend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Druff Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 yea its funny even though we are not mets we always have a following of people who rely on you. when you screw up you are going to hear about it big time. i guess it's a watered down version on the tv mets bashing Yeh, I don't want to hear about it. My wife is a teacher. There's isn't a more rabid bunch of folks in regards to snowfall than teachers. My wife will literally call me up and ask what I think a week out. I keep trying to explain that this obsession days off due to snow, and their seeming arrogance about it, doesn't help their cause when they go hat in hand and ask for a raise. People who get stuck on their way to work in the snow then look at teachers and say "oh, hell no"... But, they don't seem to get it. Where's the head banging emoticon? :headbang: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I don't know why the panic and sense of dread is in this thread. Did anybody here expect the models to show a sweet solution from 126 hours out until the storm happens? There are going to be a few more ups and downs. I'd start worrying when a) there's a lock...no big trends/hiccups one way or the other b.) we're within 72 hours I'm willing to bet Mitchnick's paycheck that 18z will be different. 50 Bucks is not to ballsy . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 6, 2011 Author Share Posted January 6, 2011 ensembles dont sad horrible GFS ensembles appear to be over the 40/70 bench mark. Probably some good hitters in there. It's the same dance every storm. Models see storm, some models lose storm, some keep storm, dgex shows monster hit, then miss, then rain. Nogaps does something crazy. Models come back as data is sampled better. We get snow. Yay Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 As one of the "humpers", I'm trying to figure out who declare anything over and that this storm was a lock? You and I are in more agreement than disagreement. There was definately some chest thumping that the GFS was gonna continue the trend of the NAM this morning only to see it evaporate and then the doom and gloom stuff started. I'm only implying that the door is not closed yet so the emotional pendulums should be tempered by many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 What trend? The GFS and GGEM coming more in line with the Euro's suppressed look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 And I appreciate those who are clearly superior to the rest of us calling us out. Just a question... certainly the trends are not in our favor... one model run or not. That probably would've been a better answer. You don't need anything other than common sense to know a 100+ hour model map will likely not be reality, for better or worse.. I agree with your hobby comment, however.. Clearly most around here need something to occupy their time which doesn't require any emotional maturity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 One run is not a trend. 6z had the storm closer to the coast than the 00z did. That's true. The one discouraging aspect is that the gfs does sort of shear the second upper trough into the remains of the great lakes vortex that is exiting the northeast which keeps it from amplifying as much as on the previous runs. This year, nothing is set in stone until we get inside of 72 hrs. I'd prefer the 500 to have a better low but it very well may the next run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 You and I are in more agreement than disagreement. There was definately some chest thumping that the GFS was gonna continue the trend of the NAM this morning only to see it evaporate and then the doom and gloom stuff started. I'm only implying that the door is not closed yet so the emotional pendulums should be tempered by many. Agreed with the above. You're the driest wet blanket here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 You don't need anything other than common sense to know a 100+ hour model map will likely not be reality, for better or worse.. I agree with your hobby comment, however.. Clearly most around here need something to occupy their time which doesn't require any emotional maturity. The same can be said regarding a storm 24 hours out aka 12/26 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I don't know why the panic and sense of dread is in this thread. Did anybody here expect the models to show a sweet solution from 126 hours out until the storm happens? There are going to be a few more ups and downs. I'd start worrying when a) there's a lock...no big trends/hiccups one way or the other b.) we're within 72 hours I'm willing to bet Mitchnick's paycheck that 18z will be different. You're right, it will probably be different. I'd like to see a shift in the euro. I don't like having so many players on the table in terms of shortwaves. It makes the forecasts less stable but also makes phasing a little harder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 6, 2011 Author Share Posted January 6, 2011 ive never seen a lakes cutter that gave us snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 One not-so-great suite has everyone jumpy simply because of what happened two weeks ago. We got shafted, so that jumpiness makes sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Yeh, I don't want to hear about it. My wife is a teacher. There's isn't a more rabid bunch of folks in regards to snowfall than teachers. My wife will literally call me up and ask what I think a week out. I keep trying to explain that this obsession days off due to snow, and their seeming arrogance about it, doesn't help their cause when they go hat in hand and ask for a raise. People who get stuck on their way to work in the snow then look at teachers and say "oh, hell no"... But, they don't seem to get it. Where's the head banging emoticon? :headbang: I am a teacher. Are you trying to tell me that I shouldn't wish for snow days or that wishing for snows means I don't deserve a raise? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 The same can be said regarding a storm 24 hours out aka 12/26 Yup - nothing's a lock until the god awful RUC is mentioned, water vapor analysis begins and radar hallucinations kick in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 6, 2011 Author Share Posted January 6, 2011 we shouldnt really panic. Most people in Philly and NYC didnt know they were getting a snowstorm/blizzard till 36 hours before the event for DEC 26 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Agreed with the above. You're the driest wet blanket here Yay? I think there will still be some OTS and SECS shown until maybe Sat. It would be my luck as if I were to totally write this one off that the Euro comes in and bombs us all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 You don't need anything other than common sense to know a 100+ hour model map will likely not be reality, for better or worse.. I agree with your hobby comment, however.. Clearly most around here need something to occupy their time which doesn't require any emotional maturity. Seriously? Pathetic. Okay fine... maybe I jumped the gun on a "OH MY GOD we're in trouble with this storm" thing. But does this really have to be my punishment? I'll sleep well tonight knowing I don't bully people around due to arrogance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 That's true. The one discouraging aspect is that the gfs does sort of shear the second upper trough into the remains of the great lakes vortex that is exiting the northeast which keeps it from amplifying as much as on the previous runs. This year, nothing is set in stone until we get inside of 72 hrs. I'd prefer the 500 to have a better low but it very well may the next run. Well said. What the 12z GFS shows is fairly similar to what it showed earlier yesterday and before that. A weak phase if anything that brings DC/MD a light snow. Yesterday's 4 GFS runs were all over the map. We were all quite happy with it then, especially since then it had a trend toward a bigger storm late yesterday and this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Yay? I think there will still be some OTS and SECS shown until maybe Sat. It would be my luck as if I were to totally write this one off that the Euro comes in and bombs us all. Or goes OTS, then comes back west... then too far west and we end up with a cutter instead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Lolz at these group therapy sessions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 One not-so-great suite has everyone jumpy simply because of what happened two weeks ago. We got shafted, so that jumpiness makes sense. and on Dec 19th. We've been twice burned and I think three by (He who I am not allowed to mention his name, and no I'm not talking about DT). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 and on Dec 19th. We've been twice burned and I think three by (He who I am not allowed to mention his name, and no I'm not talking about DT). JB . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I actually think we're in pretty good shape, given the Nina and climo. The models may not be good at the precise location of storms 5-10 days out, but they're pretty good generally at forecasting temps in that range and beyond. It's hard in a Nina year for Miller As to make the turn up the coast, and the -NAO and blocking sometimes helps (c.f. Dec 26th), sometimes hurts by squashing lows and pulling them right OTS. For a Nina year we're looking at a lot more potential for a big storm than we normally be - perhaps at the cost of several smaller events. Maybe we'll get the hit people are looking for this time around, maybe next time around, maybe the time after that, or maybe we won't hit the jackpot at all this year - but it's certainly looking far more exciting, and more likely that one of these events will be a hit, even if it's not a probable, than folks expected this fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 ive never seen a lakes cutter that gave us snow Feb 2007? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 and on Dec 19th. We've been twice burned and I think three by (He who I am not allowed to mention his name, and no I'm not talking about DT). Gotta be honest, Wes...I didn't really seriously follow the Dec 19 storm, but your point is taken. It'd be nice to see a break in the "seasonal trend" so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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