mitchnick Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Well, all of our hopes are pinned on the block to save us. This probably won't end well. always are for us to get a decent event way to early, but I know you know that at this point we're all here because of 1) habit, and 2) unreasonable expectations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Lalala land consolation prize? http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_pcp_324m.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 time for a jan 17 thread i sorta like the idea of a storm running up the coast during the big blast of cold -- if it comes. that's a fluke we can take to the bank. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Lalala land consolation prize? http://www.nco.ncep....fs_pcp_324m.gif Congrats Butte MT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Lalala land consolation prize? http://www.nco.ncep....fs_pcp_324m.gif that's what the 200 hr storm looked like 2-3 days ago on the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 that's what the 200 hr storm looked like 2-3 days ago on the GFS On to the Canadian! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 I sure hope JI doesn't see this thread now I worry about that boy sometimes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 I sure hope JI doesn't see this thread now I worry about that boy sometimes it's good. think of how unproductive some stretches were last yr.. of course, we did get some payoff for "time wasted". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 GGEM at a glance seems to have the north east storm stick around loner than the GFS. Should produce at least a somewhat snowier out come than the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 The block on the GGEM is trying to do it's dirty work. at hour 144. :X Not sure how far north the low can go with the huge 50/50 low off the Canadian Maritime. Still not sure how will it look beyond that. :X GGEM starts to get ugly at 156. :X Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 4, 2011 Author Share Posted January 4, 2011 What a modeling disaster last night and this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 What a modeling disaster last night and this morning DGEX showed an improvement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 4, 2011 Author Share Posted January 4, 2011 DGEX showed an improvement Link? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 4, 2011 Author Share Posted January 4, 2011 dgex is crap. anyway...there is a huge spread in the 6z gfs ensembles. Some supressed...some west...some south..some up the coast..some HECS http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/members/06zf180.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Wow...6z gfs basically lost the entire storm....even the euro was way south with it.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 This is probably one of the overall coldest runs of the GFS I've ever seen right through 384- and it's suppose to have a warm bias now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 4, 2011 Author Share Posted January 4, 2011 Wow...6z gfs basically lost the entire storm....even the euro was way south with it.... get off now. Its not going to snow this winter as we both had this feeling back in the Fall. A shutout now is probably to be expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 get off now. Its not going to snow this winter as we both had this feeling back in the Fall. A shutout now is probably to be expected. No point in getting off now we still have to go through the next 2 months regardless. I suppose now is the real time though to be as realistic as we can be and stop moaning about it. I will do my best and anything that comes snow wise I will enjoy it. I do think this coming cold will under perform though....way too many people are confident in it happening and that always is a red flag.....highs in the 30's???? brrrrrrrr....NOT. We shall see though and if the cold is the main attraction then I hope it is record setting at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 get off now. Its not going to snow this winter as we both had this feeling back in the Fall. A shutout now is probably to be expected. Once you are off, don't come back. We will expect no more posts from you about this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Once you are off, don't come back. We will expect no more posts from you about this storm. I hope he listens Randy.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 I say we blindly follow the models. They've been right on the money so far this winter, and their consistency is impressive... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 4, 2011 Author Share Posted January 4, 2011 No point in getting off now we still have to go through the next 2 months regardless. I suppose now is the real time though to be as realistic as we can be and stop moaning about it. I will do my best and anything that comes snow wise I will enjoy it. I do think this coming cold will under perform though....way too many people are confident in it happening and that always is a red flag.....highs in the 30's???? brrrrrrrr....NOT. We shall see though and if the cold is the main attraction then I hope it is record setting at least. I know 30 for the high dosent seem really cold but that is still -11 (our average is 41). So lets january comes in at -11....that would be considered a brtual January for our area even though our highs 28-32 would not be considered brutal for most people. I think you are expecting highs in the teens which would be a whopping 20 degrees below normal! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 4, 2011 Author Share Posted January 4, 2011 Once you are off, don't come back. We will expect no more posts from you about this storm. i was telling leesburg go get off...not myself. I go down to the bitter end Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 12Z NAM at 78-84 certainly improved. Looks screwy though. Much more energy digging sw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 get off now. Its not going to snow this winter as we both had this feeling back in the Fall. A shutout now is probably to be expected. it already snowed .. a little Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Don Cherry's Jacket Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 The way this winter has gone, I don't know why we are stressing over a storm a week out. The models have been pretty lousy this far out so far this winter. I'm waiting for the storm that isn't anywhere near us and then three days out shifts its bullseye to us. (Or, even a decent hit.) Why don't we focus on Friday/Saturday and see if that verifies, even if its just a dusting or an inch or so. A little something would be nice... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 This is probably one of the overall coldest runs of the GFS I've ever seen right through 384- and it's suppose to have a warm bias now? The documented "warm bias" isn't tropospheric deep, it is really only mid-troposphere (and stratosphere). The lower tropospheric/near-surface temperature bias is more neutral, and tends toward cold with increasing forecast length. I think people are dwelling too much (and misinterpreting) an increase in geopotential height (not necessarily thickness) bias. I can dig up some figures if interested.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 This GFS run will be epic for our area with the second storm. Mark my words. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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