Kmlwx Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I'm giving you my opinion. Even HPC agrees this is a much easier storm to predict than anything we've seen this winter. You don't have to buy into what I'm posting if you don't want to. Okay but even if the Euro HAD shown it...it's not a lock. I'm not like mad or anything just saying. All in good discussion! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 fair enough.. i actually only barely glanced at the euro. my main point was it's not necessarily the 'euro bias' at play here. I'm getting tired of these two opposing world view storms. So far, we haven't had much luck and this system still relies on the timing and orientation of the second shortwave to get the storm. That always raises concerns though I still like the pattern and the ridge is so far west this time that you'd think that the storm would have room to come north but......if the trough is really rounded that might not matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 @72 hrs, the GFS is much more similar to the 06z run with the southern wave than the 12z NAM. Northern stream is held back a little too at that timeframe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 leesburg....you know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarolineWx Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 pacific low is lagging behind, looks a lot like the EURO at 84hr to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 alot more disconnect with the upper lows this might be out to sea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I'm getting tired of these two opposing world view storms. So far, we haven't had much luck and this system still relies on the timing and orientation of the second shortwave to get the storm. That always raises concerns though I still like the pattern and the ridge is so far west this time that you'd think that the storm would have room to come north but......if the trough is really rounded that might not matter. yeah it already feels like winter has been 2x as long with all these different scenarios across the models. i thought maybe the euro would budge a bit last night given the others. it's great to see the gfs the last 2 runs but it's still fantasy to me -- tho if it does it again who knows. i think im maybe 60/40-70/30 against at this point but that's better than 80/20 of a few days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Flatter look by 108 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 12Z GFS looks like its going to be a miss to me These models suck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Well, this run is gonna suck, but fear not...tis the GFS. We need to see if the other 12z runs are as flat/suppressed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Northern stream energy is hanging back too much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 decent hit for southern va nothing like 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 light snow for se va by 126 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowchill Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 6" hamton newport news Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I'm not mad at the 12z GFS. I hope it keeps up like this for at least 4 more runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NattyBo Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Well, it was nice of the GFS to give us a few hours of hope, anyway. There's always next model run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 6" hamton newport news yea they might be the new DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Yay seasonal trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 12Z GFS ots at 5-6 day range shocking I tell you, just shocking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I'm not mad at the 12z GFS. I hope it keeps up like this for at least 4 more runs once again this is a perfect spot at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 once again this is a perfect spot at this point I'd say that but this year, for the dc/bwi area, suppressed has pretty much been suppressed with little northward movement. We need a sharper send trough and the stupid thing over the great lakes to be weaker or to more faster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 GFS progressive bias at play... the southern wavy is way ahead of any other model or 0/6Z run... see Hr 84. but, I don't want to interfere with the worrying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 12Z GFS ots at 5-6 day range shocking I tell you, just shocking now it's moving backwards in time since the solution isnt as good.. last night it was knocking on the door at d5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 GFS progressive bias at play... the southern wavy is way ahead of any other model or 0/6Z run... see Hr 84. but, I don't want to interfere with the worrying. looks like you are referencing the weenie talking pt manual Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Yay seasonal trend I'd say that but this year, for the dc/bwi area, suppressed has pretty much been suppressed with little northward movement. We need a sharper send trough and the stupid think over the great lakes to be weaker or to more faster. Man I hate to agree with this but ... it's really really hard not to. This trend is NOT our friend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 GFS progressive bias at play... the southern wavy is way ahead of any other model or 0/6Z run... see Hr 84. but, I don't want to interfere with the worrying. Or it is coming around to the Euro this time as opposed to the 12/26 event. It seems as if you want to toss it just because Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Glad the bus hasn't been fired up yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Or it is coming around to the Euro this time as opposed to the 12/26 event. It seems as if you want to toss it just because having them line up in this range isnt good news. but the gfs is bouncing so who knows. heck the euro might show a hit now since that seems to be the story of the winter with opposing solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Or it is coming around to the Euro this time as opposed to the 12/26 event. It seems as if you want to toss it just because I actually want to keep it so if something good happens then I'll be surprised. I prefer to toss the good runs and keep the bad ones. I'm a contrarian like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 having them line up in this range isnt good news. but the gfs is bouncing so who knows. heck the euro might show a hit now since that seems to be the story of the winter with opposing solutions. I'll take that. I'd much rather have a Euro/GGEM team than a GGEM/GFS team at Day 5-6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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