stormtracker Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 not to be a wet blanket but this thing is still 5 days away...just sayin' Mission accomplished Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Antecedent cold air may mitigate any double barreled issue-- or it could just have a huge invert troff sticking up due to the diving SW out of the PAC nw-- With a closed 850 mb low over louisiana, the double barrel theory pretty much doesn't hold water. Buckeye needs that 850 mb low up over kentucky/west va for his ideas to pan out. That would be a huge change at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Has any model run shown that the leading southern storm is anything for us? Aren't we waiting for the Pac NW energy to get to us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 6, 2011 Author Share Posted January 6, 2011 Has any model run shown that the leading southern storm is anything for us? Aren't we waiting for the Pac NW energy to get to us? correct..all the models have this big time low really weakning after its sits there for a few days destroying the gulf coast until the PAC NW catches up. Maybe the NAM will be different Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 No way. I won't ever root for some double-barreled BS with a jump. No way. Usually h85 temps are not -12 down into NC. I'm not worried. It be a hell of a battle to change it over--which would be a DUMPING of snow before it changed. (massive WAA) Feb 5 last year-- I had 6 inches on that low that drove into southern WV before a change to sleet. h85 temps were .-4 when the event started. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Careful. You may be attacked by a mob with pitchforks only if you have problems counting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Has any model run shown that the leading southern storm is anything for us? Aren't we waiting for the Pac NW energy to get to us? from what i have seen the stronger and the longer it lasts the bigger the whole strom will be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 correct..all the models have this big time low really weakning after its sits there for a few days destroying the gulf coast until the PAC NW catches up. Maybe the NAM will be different The 6Z GFS has that southern shortwave just NE of LA. At the same time, the NAM has it much stronger and back over Dallas (which I think would be much better for us in term of timing-interacting with the northern energy). My hope of course is that the NAM is correct :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Has any model run shown that the leading southern storm is anything for us? Aren't we waiting for the Pac NW energy to get to us? 6Z GFS did http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer//gfs/06/gfs_pcp120138_l.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Mission accomplished Sry, but I'm still stinging from that last one and I can't be as gung-ho on this one yet. Not with the Euro being so different at this stage as well. I know what happened last time too with that. I like the pattern better and not having so many things to occur just right is better but we have seen a consistent pattern of suppressed storms. I hope this changes but until it does I am more cautious than ever now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 only if you have problems counting We are now 9 days away right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Not trying to be mean but you've got to chill out with these posts. Between your post earlier about "locking in a SECS" and now posts like this...we had good consensus for other events this winter even within 48 hours and it failed. Could be the same here. Or have you already forgotten our failures this winter? I'm giving you my opinion. Even HPC agrees this is a much easier storm to predict than anything we've seen this winter. You don't have to buy into what I'm posting if you don't want to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Sry, but I'm still stinging from that last one and I can't be as gung-ho on this one yet. Not with the Euro being so different at this stage as well. I know what happened last time too with that. I like the pattern better and not having so many things to occur just right is better but we have seen a consistent pattern of suppressed storms. I hope this changes but until it does I am more cautious than ever now. there's nothing wrong with being cautious.. this storm still has a better chance to screw us than crush us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Juicy.. though its the 84 hr 12z NAM total precip for the past 48 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 there's nothing wrong with being cautious.. this storm still has a better chance to screw us than crush us you're such a wet blanket. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I'm giving you my opinion. Even HPC agrees this is a much easier storm to predict than anything we've seen this winter. You don't have to buy into what I'm posting if you don't want to. Also the post about locking in SECS was contingent upon Euro joining the consensus which has not occurred yet, so there is no "lock". Secondly 3-6 inches would be an SECS. Not like I'm calling for HECS or anything of that sort. Anyway, you can look historically inside 5 day range and probably find very good verifications when CMC/GFS/EURO/UKIE all had similar solutions at 5 days. It is rare though, but when it happens, most of the time we get a decent snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 you're such a wet blanket. i've been called worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 GUIDANCE DIVERGES FROM DAY 5 TUE ONWARD. DUE TO THE 00Z ECMWF TRENDING SLOWER THAN CONSENSUS WITH ENERGY CROSSING THE CONUS DURING THE PERIOD... THAT MODEL EJECTS THE INITIAL WAVE EWD INTO THE ATLC AND THEN TAKES ANOTHER 1-2 DAYS TO DEVELOP ITS STRONGER WRN ATLC SFC LOW THAT ENDS UP ON THE SRN FRINGE OF THE MODEL/ENSEMBLE ENVELOPE. 00Z GEFS/12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLES SHOW BEST CLUSTERING A LITTLE EWD OF THE 00Z GFS BUT THE GFS IS WITHIN THE SOLN ENVELOPE AND THE UKMET/CMC TRACKS ALSO FALL IN THE MIDDLE TO WRN HALF OF THE SPREAD. WITH ENSEMBLE MEANS OFFERING THE BEST CONTINUITY AMONG GUIDANCE SO FAR... PREFER TO LEAN MORE TOWARD THE 00Z GEFS/12Z ECMWF MEANS WITH ABOUT 1/3 WEIGHTING OF THE GFS TO PROVIDE SOME ADDED STRENGTH FROM DAY 5 TUE ONWARD. IT IS HOPED THAT WITH A LARGER PROPORTION OF THE SUPPORTING ENERGY CROSSING A MAJORITY OF THE CONUS VERSUS ENTERING THE CONUS FROM CANADA WHERE MDLS HAVE MORE DIFFICULTY RESOLVING SHRTWV FEATURES... THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL ULTIMATELY HAVE SOMEWHAT BETTER PREDICTABILITY THAN PRECEDING SYSTEMS AFFECTING THE EAST COAST. This is what the Euro did for the 12/26 storm (storm ... what storm?). It was too slow with the energy. In the case of this new storm (hopefully) it allows it to go OTS. Back in 12/26 it had it destroying us all because of its known bias of holding back energy in the SW for too long. I'd hate to use BIAS in the attempt at weenie casting but that bias was real last month. My thought is that the Euro might not have the right idea until that energy gets on shore. (Just like 12/26) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 This is what the Euro did for the 12/26 storm (storm ... what storm?). It was too slow with the energy. In the case of this new storm (hopefully) it allows it to go OTS. Back in 12/26 it had it destroying us all because of its known bias of holding back energy in the SW for too long. I'd hate to use BIAS in the attempt at weenie casting but that bias was real last month. My thought is that the Euro might not have the right idea until that energy gets on shore. (Just like 12/26) the euro is not really holding back the southern energy as far as i can tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 the euro is not really holding back the southern energy as far as i can tell. I should've BOLDED the comments from HPC. They said it not I. Edit: Fixed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 12z gfs popping a sub 996 low off near the NC coast hr 42? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I should've BOLDED the comments from HPC. They said it not I. Edit: Fixed! i guess late it does but that's not quiet the bias people quote on the euro. earlier in the cycle the euro is actually a little quicker with the wave than the gfs/nam it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 12z gfs popping a sub 996 low off near the NC coast hr 42? zoom http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_500_042m.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Congrats OBX! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 i guess late it does but that's not quiet the bias people quote on the euro. earlier in the cycle the euro is actually a little quicker with the wave than the gfs/nam it seems. I believe they are referring to the northern stream energy that is phasing with the southern stream on most other models. The Euro slows it down in the pac nw and therefore doesn't allow it to phase in time with the southern vort. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I believe they are referring to the northern stream energy that is phasing with the southern stream on most other models. The Euro slows it down in the pac nw and therefore doesn't allow it to phase in time with the southern vort. fair enough.. i actually only barely glanced at the euro. my main point was it's not necessarily the 'euro bias' at play here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Wes is posting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 GFS at 72 looks quite juicy as well.. 1003 L in the GOM by Houston Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 @72 hrs, the GFS is much more similar to the 06z run with the southern wave than the 12z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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