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Jan 11-12 Model/Forecasting Discussion


Ji

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Unless I am mistaken, doesn't buckeye usually wishcast for this kind of thing?

hijack any one of the plethra of MA posts by you or any other MA weenie regarding a threat and copy and paste it in someone elses regional thread and it too would become a wishcast.

But since Ji has some strange need to troll our region and myself, let me clarify. I believe this comes up as a double-barreled low. One up or just west of the apps, the other along the coast. This is not a wishcast, it's something that some of the models are showing....even the 00z euro showed a very weak version of this. IF that happens, I believe the low to the west may prog stronger and further nw....not based on wishcasting, but on the history of watching these events unfold on the models for the last 10 years. It seems whenever there's a double barrel low on the models, the trend seems to favor a stronger western reflection and a longer period before it transfers. Of course the whole idea of a double low may fall apart too, no guarantees....but we all know that.

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hijack any one of the plethra of MA posts by you or any other MA weenie regarding a threat and copy and paste it in someone elses regional thread and it too would become a wishcast.

But since Ji has some strange need to troll our region and myself, let me clarify. I believe this comes up as a double-barreled low. One up or just west of the apps, the other along the coast. This is not a wishcast, it's something that some of the models are showing....even the 00z euro showed a very weak version of this. IF that happens, I believe the low to the west may prog stronger and further nw....not based on wishcasting, but on the history of watching these events unfold on the models for the last 10 years. It seems whenever there's a double barrel low on the models, the trend seems to favor a stronger western reflection and a longer period before it transfers. Of course the whole idea of a double low may fall apart too, no guarantees....but we all know that.

:lol:

You are the biggest troll on the weather side.

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hijack any one of the plethra of MA posts by you or any other MA weenie regarding a threat and copy and paste it in someone elses regional thread and it too would become a wishcast.

But since Ji has some strange need to troll our region and myself, let me clarify. I believe this comes up as a double-barreled low. One up or just west of the apps, the other along the coast. This is not a wishcast, it's something that some of the models are showing....even the 00z euro showed a very weak version of this. IF that happens, I believe the low to the west may prog stronger and further nw....not based on wishcasting, but on the history of watching these events unfold on the models for the last 10 years. It seems whenever there's a double barrel low on the models, the trend seems to favor a stronger western reflection and a longer period before it transfers. Of course the whole idea of a double low may fall apart too, no guarantees....but we all know that.

actually Buckeye, I don't disagree at all with you on the double barrel storm idea

how it plays out for OH and MA is still in question

although I can't name a particular storm, I do recall a few double barrel systems giving your area and ours substantial snows with the Apps protecting us until the coastal ultimately takes over

I'd take my chances with that scenario...in fact, that's what the GFS was showing at 12Z a couple days ago when many in the MA feared a changeover

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actually Buckeye, I don't disagree at all with you on the double barrel storm idea

how it plays out for OH and MA is still in question

although I can't name a particular storm, I do recall a few double barrel systems giving your area and our substantial snows with the Apps protecting us until the coastal ultimately takes over

I'd take my chances with that scenario...in fact, that's what the GFS was showing at 12Z a couple days ago when many in the MA feared a changeover

The concept of a primary going inland with a jump is pretty much dead. Buckeye sees inland runners in every run. This low stays together from the GOM up the coast.

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hijack any one of the plethra of MA posts by you or any other MA weenie regarding a threat and copy and paste it in someone elses regional thread and it too would become a wishcast.

But since Ji has some strange need to troll our region and myself, let me clarify. I believe this comes up as a double-barreled low. One up or just west of the apps, the other along the coast. This is not a wishcast, it's something that some of the models are showing....even the 00z euro showed a very weak version of this. IF that happens, I believe the low to the west may prog stronger and further nw....not based on wishcasting, but on the history of watching these events unfold on the models for the last 10 years. It seems whenever there's a double barrel low on the models, the trend seems to favor a stronger western reflection and a longer period before it transfers. Of course the whole idea of a double low may fall apart too, no guarantees....but we all know that.

Antecedent cold air may mitigate any double barreled issue-- or it could just have a huge invert troff sticking up due to the diving SW out of the PAC nw--

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I like this too, but my concern remains that it may stay too far south

we may end up rooting for the northern stream storm (or double barreled idea) on to help bring it north

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/12/index_500_l_loop.shtml

No way. I won't ever root for some double-barreled BS with a jump. No way.

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it looks juicy but all models show this juice. Dosent mean it will come up the coast

Totally. But the timing/connection between the northern and southern energy looks - if anything - slightly better this run as well. And more moisture is always good to see, imo - only positive conclusions to draw from that regarding future evolution.

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The concept of a primary going inland with a jump is pretty much dead. Buckeye sees inland runners in every run. This low stays together from the GOM up the coast.

nah, I don't agree

if you look at this 5H map, you can clearly see the southern stream vort and the northern one diving south

without that northern one helping to raise heights along the coast, I think the southern vort has a a higher probability of sliding ots

nam_500_084l.gif

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No way. I won't ever root for some double-barreled BS with a jump. No way.

if that's the best we can do this year, its the best we can do

usually, they are pretty juicy

yes, we flirt w/a changeover, but I just want as much snow as possible and I'll deal with mixing issues

obviously I prefer all snow, just saying whatever it takes

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I like this too, but my concern remains that it may stay too far south

we may end up rooting for the northern stream storm (or double barreled idea) on to help bring it north

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/12/index_500_l_loop.shtml

i like this loop BOOM?

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/12/index_ref_s_loop.shtml

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This is kind of stupid, but imagine this fantasy. What if.......what if the 6Z GFS was exactly right all the way out to 384 hours. Imagine what would be said about January.....after it happened. We'd be comparing every winter to this January for years.

But, back to reality. We are at day 21 since the last accumulating snow here in NoVa. Maybe we can make up for it over the next 21. I still don't understand LWX's forecast for my area tonight and tomorrow. What are they seeing?

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if that's the best we can do this year, its the best we can do

usually, they are pretty juicy

yes, we flirt w/a changeover, but I just want as much snow as possible and I'll deal with mixing issues

obviously I prefer all snow, just saying whatever it takes

I feel the same too. If we can get something perfect, something close enough to the coast for good precip, good temps, fine, great. But if we can't, then bring in the TN/OV runner with a transfer. You're right, they bring in precip. If I deal with a changeover AFTER it snows, then that's better than cold and no snow at all.

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