showmethesnow Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I believe this is the new 06Z DGEX. If so this would be a great hit. Of course it's the DGEX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Nam at 84 hrs doesn't look to bad. The pv is pulling out at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Hour 126 on the 06Z GFS. 1007 low on the coast of north Carolina coast and it looks like it's coming up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 06Z GFS is up the coast to the Bench Mark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Big hit for the coast from Eastern MD up to Cape Cod. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 6, 2011 Author Share Posted January 6, 2011 GUIDANCE DIVERGES FROM DAY 5 TUE ONWARD. DUE TO THE 00Z ECMWF TRENDING SLOWER THAN CONSENSUS WITH ENERGY CROSSING THE CONUS DURING THE PERIOD... THAT MODEL EJECTS THE INITIAL WAVE EWD INTO THE ATLC AND THEN TAKES ANOTHER 1-2 DAYS TO DEVELOP ITS STRONGER WRN ATLC SFC LOW THAT ENDS UP ON THE SRN FRINGE OF THE MODEL/ENSEMBLE ENVELOPE. 00Z GEFS/12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLES SHOW BEST CLUSTERING A LITTLE EWD OF THE 00Z GFS BUT THE GFS IS WITHIN THE SOLN ENVELOPE AND THE UKMET/CMC TRACKS ALSO FALL IN THE MIDDLE TO WRN HALF OF THE SPREAD. WITH ENSEMBLE MEANS OFFERING THE BEST CONTINUITY AMONG GUIDANCE SO FAR... PREFER TO LEAN MORE TOWARD THE 00Z GEFS/12Z ECMWF MEANS WITH ABOUT 1/3 WEIGHTING OF THE GFS TO PROVIDE SOME ADDED STRENGTH FROM DAY 5 TUE ONWARD. IT IS HOPED THAT WITH A LARGER PROPORTION OF THE SUPPORTING ENERGY CROSSING A MAJORITY OF THE CONUS VERSUS ENTERING THE CONUS FROM CANADA WHERE MDLS HAVE MORE DIFFICULTY RESOLVING SHRTWV FEATURES... THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL ULTIMATELY HAVE SOMEWHAT BETTER PREDICTABILITY THAN PRECEDING SYSTEMS AFFECTING THE EAST COAST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Yes, I know its the NAM, but the 6z at 84 hours gives me wood. Maybe its just me, but I think it looks excellent for a huge hit. And no Ian, it doesn't look like the GFS....it looks better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Yes, I know its the NAM, but the 6z at 84 hours gives me wood. Maybe its just me, but I think it looks excellent for a huge hit. And no Ian, it doesn't look like the GFS....it looks better I thought the exact same thing. Looking at it, it just looks like two steel balls heading for a massive collision. Could be that I don't know much too, so you have to factor that in as well. I also know that this thing needs to come through for us. One, because if we get "Vodka cold" soon, I'd like it to be white outside, and, two, I'm sick of seeing that trapezoid patch of white showing up over Virginia on these damn QPF maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 The DGEX being so good probably somewhat confirms the fact that the 84h NAM is looking pretty sexy for us, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Looking over the 06Z GFS Enesemble members they look like they are generally east of the OP. But I did find one member I would love to see verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 unlike 12/26, the Canadian, DGEX and now the GFS are showing good hits for us considering we had the European on our side at this range several times this year with absolutely no result, I'm feeling like this one will give us at least a moderate snow speaking for the DCA/BWI metro areas that is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 unlike 12/26, the Canadian, DGEX and now the GFS are showing good hits for us considering we had the European on our side at this range several times this year with absolutely no result, I'm feeling like this one will give us at least a moderate snow speaking for the DCA/BWI metro areas that is The way all the models have been playing us this year I am not sure what to think with it still being 5days out. If we can get it to within 48 to 72 hours then I will start believing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porsche Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Looking over the 06Z GFS Enesemble members they look like they are generally east of the OP. But I did find one member I would love to see verify. I wonder if this is the one that really skews the OP maybe? It does look good though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marked8 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Bastardi is on board for the DC area: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I wonder if this is the one that really skews the OP maybe? It does look good though! Grabbed the wrong hour when I posted but believe it or not the next 6 hours shows another .1 to .2 of precip in the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Looking over the 06Z GFS Enesemble members they look like they are generally east of the OP. But I did find one member I would love to see verify. very nice hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 6, 2011 Author Share Posted January 6, 2011 6z Gfs is wild. Maybe we see a 2 week period of Jan 2000 weather before a massive warmup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Here are the ensemble means. Looks like they start pulling east of the OP when they get to MD, VA line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldenuno Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 - Happy New Year my friends! Long time CapWx poster, and fan of all of you. Just for the AM fun - have any of you looked at the precip shield and temp TANK on the 19th or so on the 6z GFS? Im trying to remember something non-tropical that looked this "colorful"...what a week off from work that would be for the feds. Back to Tuesday - Models are sure in better agreement than leading up to xmas. I keep in the back of my mind that the NAM was last winter's big winner 3 and 4 days out. Lets see... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Bastardi is on board for the DC area: http://twitter.com/B...976702284042241 We don't mention his name on these boards. Just an FYI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 We don't mention his name on these boards. Just an FYI. I thought he said the Bastard was on board? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Curlyq Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 NoGaps on board for Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 NoGaps on board for Tuesday. I've never kept a link to the nogaps lol could you post it so I could look at the other times and maps? thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Curlyq Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I've never kept a link to the nogaps lol could you post it so I could look at the other times and maps? thanks http://www.nwmangum.com/NOGAPS.phtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 http://www.nwmangum.com/NOGAPS.phtml thanks surprisingly the Nogaps, although is a hit for us, it really gets better to our north that is really, really contrary to its progressive bias of ots to our south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 6z GFS run showing -2 as the high temp at ILG at 360 hr with a -12 min.........is that cold? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 324H GFS fantasy storm says "1996 Called. They want their blizzard back." http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/06/fp0_324.shtml ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Desperation is setting in when we're all rationalizing the NOGAPS op run and its SE bias into a hit for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Desperation is setting in when we're all rationalizing the NOGAPS op run and its SE bias into a hit for us. Nah - no one is taking it seriously. It's not like we are ignoring the whole model suite and saying "Yeah but NOGAPS is hitting us!"...the NOGAPS is just one small piece of positive news on top of what has generally been some good reason for cautious optimism. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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