Ji Posted January 6, 2011 Author Share Posted January 6, 2011 buckeye says its going NW most likely so the ggem and gfs are working the idea of a low trying to make it up into the OV before transferring. If this is the type of storm that ends up occurring, i would be surprised if the solutions dont become stronger and more nw. I think it boils down to this or total suppression/non-event. I'm still betting on idea number one. Euro is still the fly in the ointment though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 whenever the globals support eachother it is good. the euro should actually probably be better based on what's happened since yesterday with various things. if it's not someone's waving a red flag. Well hopefully it will be you waving the white flag saying i cannot take any more snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 buckeye says its going NW most likely so the ggem and gfs are working the idea of a low trying to make it up into the OV before transferring. If this is the type of storm that ends up occurring, i would be surprised if the solutions dont become stronger and more nw. I think it boils down to this or total suppression/non-event. I'm still betting on idea number one. Euro is still the fly in the ointment though i dont see that on the gfs.. is this from 2 days ago? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 anytime you have gfs/canadian/euro in agreement for 4+ inch event for DC is a VERY good sign. We have 2 of the 3. I'll feel REALLY good about this if the Euro joins the club. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 So basically i should not get to excited when the GGEM shows a bomb. The CMC stinks. It has decent verification in the height field, but in the actual world of forecasting nobody uses it because it is highly variable and hard to predict with lots of out-to-lunch runs in between. The ensemble suite stinks too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 The CMC stinks. It has decent verification in the height field, but in the actual world of forecasting nobody uses it because it is highly variable and hard to predict with lots of out-to-lunch runs in between. The ensemble suite stinks too. Ok thank you for that info, i will keep it in mind from now on and not get excited when it shows something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 i dont see that on the gfs.. is this from 2 days ago? He failed to say he's being a weenie coming into the central threads. Where he posted this. LOL ya damn trouble maker JI lol...wait till i post this gem in the mid atlantic board:) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 He failed to say he's being a weenie coming into the central threads. Where he posted this. LOL ya damn trouble maker JI jesus ji dilly just report stuff that is not needed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 buckeye says its going NW most likely so the ggem and gfs are working the idea of a low trying to make it up into the OV before transferring. If this is the type of storm that ends up occurring, i would be surprised if the solutions dont become stronger and more nw. I think it boils down to this or total suppression/non-event. I'm still betting on idea number one. Euro is still the fly in the ointment though Unless I am mistaken, doesn't buckeye usually wishcast for this kind of thing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Unless I am mistaken, doesn't buckeye usually wishcast for this kind of thing? he is always the last one to get off the wrecked cutter bus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 he is always the last one to get off the wrecked cutter bus I feel bad for buckeye. This winter was supposed to be the year of the cutter, and here we are in a gulf of mexico and up the coast weather pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 hr 78 PV in the north east is a litte further east, the S/W in the south west is a hair west and the S/W in the northwest is a little further south east from 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Unless I am mistaken, doesn't buckeye usually wishcast for this kind of thing? nah gotta disagree with Midlo. Buckeye will hold onto hope, but when the game is clearly over, he'll say its over. And this year, when one model shows one thing and another model another thing it is hard to lose faith when there is no agreement lol. But Midlo, I'm not gonna report something minor like that, only if he was coming in there causing serious problems. I know when someone is just goofing off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 hr 84 S/W a little stronger pv further east precip breaking out in tx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 hr 90 S/W much stronger and closed in tx pv is heading east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 hr 96 big closed low tx/ark big snows in ark more ridging in the east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowchill Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 VERRY JUICY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 hr 102 almost a closed low neg tilt miss/ark.this could be a huge run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Sounds like we could have total model consensus by tomorrow morning GFS/CMC/UKIE/EURO - the ultimate grand slam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 108 snow into nc and tenn S/W much stronger and neg. 1008 low over southern miss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowchill Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 HR 114 PRECIP SHEILD IS HUGE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 hr 120 S/W dampens out light snow to ric low off the sc coast sub 1012mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Phineas ukie is much better than yesterdays 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 out to see storm just fizzles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 So much for model consensus. Guess we'll have to take another shot tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 hr 96 we have a full closed low neg tilt 24 hours later its almost flat at 500 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowchill Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 jUST GIVE IT TIME IT WILL PICK IT UP TOMORROW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 day 10 ggem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Sounds like we could have total model consensus by tomorrow morning GFS/CMC/UKIE/EURO - the ultimate grand slam. Not trying to be mean but you've got to chill out with these posts. Between your post earlier about "locking in a SECS" and now posts like this...we had good consensus for other events this winter even within 48 hours and it failed. Could be the same here. Or have you already forgotten our failures this winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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