Ian Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Oops I worded that bad. The mass qpf and diabatic heat release through the atmosphere weakens that southern migratory wave so the GFS can capture it and phase the low/mid level circulation before tracking up the coast. That is what you want, but that will depend on the cutoff taking that really far S track. If that southern PV is too fast and not captured, this storm is OTS like 18Z. If it is too weak and dumps too much qpf, there is nothing to phase and this prolly heads OTS. This is going to be interesting to see how the models handle this event the next few days. I bet it won't be very good though. so there's no middle ground in your eyes? ots or phased storm? i guess the pattern argues for that.. i still believe in the nw trend to some degree i guess which is what i would think watching previous runs to this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 i've said it seemed like a 2-4/3-6 inch storm.. if things kept as they were that's where i'd go if it wasnt still at this range (but it's getting closer obviously). if the other globals follow up it could be real.. with the performance of late i dont expect this to lock in from here and look this good/better through the end like we saw in 09-10 I am 35 and have lived in Baltimore my whole life and i highly doubt that we will ever see another 09-10 for the rest of my life here. That said i would gladly take 3-6 with the screwzone we have been in this winter so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Trust me, it'll be rising from the grave a few times between now and Monday. I am scared to ask what exactly you will be doing in a grave between now and Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 If Euro joins the canadian/gfs party tonight I'm going to lock in at least an SECS for us. Way to early to lock in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 so there's no middle ground in your eyes? ots or phased storm? i guess the pattern argues for that.. i still believe in the nw trend to some degree i guess which is what i would think watching previous runs to this. There is little wiggle room mainly because of that southern wave. If you look at a fast solution...the southern wave negatively influences advection patterns and the upper level height field can't respond with upstream ridging ahead of the trough. It has to phase. I guess a slower solution with that southern wave would work too though if the trough could phase the southern wave before it craps out. If it is too slow it will sit there and dump qpf and rot away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clindner00 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 No wait for the the real polar vortex to drop into Canada and pull everything north. My point was missed, all i'm trying to say is that you cannot throw a run out based on climatology of strong la ninas. We are not in a typical pattern of a strong la nina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 There is little wiggle room mainly because of that southern wave. If you look at a fast solution...the southern wave negatively influences advection patterns and the upper level height field can't respond with upstream ridging ahead of the trough. It has to phase. I guess a slower solution with that southern wave would work too though if the trough could phase the southern wave before it craps out. If it is too slow it will sit there and dump qpf and rot away. So it is not a thread the needle scenario but it is close?. Oh well i guess i could always look at pictures of my 90 + inches from last winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 There is little wiggle room mainly because of that southern wave. If you look at a fast solution...the southern wave negatively influences advection patterns and the upper level height field can't respond with upstream ridging ahead of the trough. It has to phase. I guess a slower solution with that southern wave would work too though if the trough could phase the southern wave before it craps out. If it is too slow it will sit there and dump qpf and rot away. ok thanks.. maybe i need to scale back from 2-4 to 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 looks like another huge hit on the ggem too waiting for the color maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 00Z Maple Syrup looks pretty pimp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 clown map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gbfan Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 looks like another huge hit on the ggem too waiting for the color maps when will we see some model consistency? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 So it is not a thread the needle scenario but it is close?. Oh well i guess i could always look at pictures of my 90 + inches from last winter. Every storm is "thread the needle." Only Feb 6, 2010 had any wiggle room and that was because it had a huge, huge moisture fetch aimed right at DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 ok thanks.. maybe i need to scale back from 2-4 to 0 Not to piss more in your cheerios but the GFS ensembles are east of the OP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 hr 120 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 when will we see some model consistency? In the year 2714 when we perfect time travel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathervswife Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Looks Great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 According to records, there has been no major snowstorm for the mid atlantic during a strong la nina. Being that east coast of Maryland, Jersey and Delaware got over a foot of snow should we also throw out the last blizzard? January 2000? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 clown map looks like i still get screwed somehow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Not to piss more in your cheerios but the GFS ensembles are east of the OP. Sounds about right. The mean is "supposed" to be slightly east of the operational. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Every storm is "thread the needle." Only Feb 6, 2010 had any wiggle room and that was because it had a huge, huge moisture fetch aimed right at DC. thread the needle with temps where's our usual crowd of worriers? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Sounds about right. The mean is "supposed" to be slightly east of the operational. I am not an expert but they are a bit more than slightly east, but this all means little 5 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Oops I worded that bad. The mass qpf and diabatic heat release through the atmosphere weakens that southern migratory wave and slows it down so the GFS can capture it and phase the low/mid level circulation before tracking up the coast. That is what you want, but that will depend on the cutoff taking that really far S track. If that southern PV is too fast and not captured, this storm is OTS like 18Z. If it is too weak and dumps too much qpf, there is nothing to phase and this prolly heads OTS. This is going to be interesting to see how the models handle this event the next few days. I bet it won't be very good though. That southern SW is essentially just creates a surface front and pulls up warm humid air. The southern upper energy usually shears out Northeast of the surface low during a phase like it does on this run. Scroll 90-114 http://www.meteo.psu...avnloopnew.html . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris21 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 looks like i still get screwed somehow I dont think that total is for the entire storm up here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clindner00 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 January 2000? Try again. That was a weak-moderate la nina Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I dont think that total is for the entire storm up here says 156 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 says 156 The worst part of that map is Leesburg does not get fringed . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Well, bed time. 0z Euro will be a fantastic hit 6z GFS will crush weenies hopes..12z will be marginal, 18z will bring back a monster...rinse repeat. goodnight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Well, bed time. 0z Euro will be a fantastic hit 6z GFS will crush weenies hopes..12z will be marginal, 18z will bring back a monster...rinse repeat. goodnight You are getting old, you used to stay up much later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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