kurtstack Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 gfs crushes us absolutely fantastic track and phase. Our magic from last year isn't over yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Precip pattern looks like GGEM. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 This storm is very well hung, and thats limp. Sorry, somone had to say it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 The track on the GFS is nearly perfect for us. The low slides up the SC coast to off Hatteras before bombing and tucking in south of NJ. Slow it down another few hours and this could give us a legit MECS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 the gfs is pretty nasty at 500 now.. i dunno Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 The track on the GFS is nearly perfect for us. The low slides up the SC coast to off Hatteras before bombing and tucking in south of NJ. Slow it down another few hours and this could give us a legit MECS. still 5 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ovechkin Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 so we're in the bullsye 5 days out. Thought that was never a good thing. Then again, many of the really good ones here are actually modeled well in advance. We'll see which wins out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 the gfs is pretty nasty at 500 now.. i dunno Admit it you are finally going to acknowledge we have a decent chance at a big storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Best thing is the models are converging on a solution at 5 days. So much better model consensus than the 12/26 event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Someone call Wes and wake him up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clindner00 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Let's throw it out. DC can't get any appreciable snow in a strong Nina. According to records, there has been no major snowstorm for the mid atlantic during a strong la nina. Being that east coast of Maryland, Jersey and Delaware got over a foot of snow should we also throw out the last blizzard? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Someone call Wes and wake him up. He has given up hope, he is ice fishing down south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Admit it you are finally going to acknowledge we have a decent chance at a big storm. based on how things were moving i was starting to think we'd get a storm of some sort. i dont think i believe the gfs verbatim right now.. it juiced up the gom activity a lot this run though. if that's something the others keep going with i guess it could be legit. there's a lot more going for it in general than the other events this yr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 <br />Someone call Wes and wake him up.<br /><br /><br /><br />Wouldn't you like to at least get a good night's sleep before Wes tears this run to shreds.....lol. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 still 5 days out. Agreed, but it was nice to see the SECS/MECS card being thrown down on the GFS (GGEM already had it at 12Z). That tells me a nice storm is legitimately within the envelope of solutions. This is the timeframe the models sometimes sniff these out before losing them at four days out. Still a long ride ahead. Euro will surely piss in our Cheerios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 <br /><br /><br /> Wouldn't you like to at least get a good night's sleep before Wes tears this run to shreds.....lol. MDstorm This run is porn for ol' Wes. The upper levels are really nice. All his lows are where he likes 'em. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 based on how things were moving i was starting to think we'd get a storm of some sort. i dont think i believe the gfs verbatim right now.. it juiced up the gom activity a lot this run though. if that's something the others keep going with i guess it could be legit. there's a lot more going for it in general than the other events this yr. You can rarely believe the GFS verbatim 5 days out, but i like the optimistic Ian better then the depressed one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 This run is porn for ol' Wes. The upper levels are really nice. All his lows are where he likes 'em. Wes just posted he wants to know how much he is getting in his backyard with this setup on the GFS . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 based on how things were moving i was starting to think we'd get a storm of some sort. i dont think i believe the gfs verbatim right now.. it juiced up the gom activity a lot this run though. if that's something the others keep going with i guess it could be legit. there's a lot more going for it in general than the other events this yr. The southern wave transitioning into an open wave will wreak havoc on the models. Also the mass amount of QPF dumped and the extreme diabatic effects will weaken it considerably. GFS shows that...hence the slowdown before it phases/captures the southern wave. Another event where everything will have to work out perfectly. An interesting run though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 If Euro joins the canadian/gfs party tonight I'm going to lock in at least an SECS for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 The southern wave transitioning into an open wave will wreak havoc on the models. Also the mass amount of QPF dumped and the extreme diabatic effects will weaken it considerably. GFS shows that...hence the slowdown before it phases/captures the southern wave. Another event where everything will have to work out perfectly. An interesting run though. so it's good for it to be weaker initially (gom) in the end? i was just thinking more qpf gathering in the gom means more opportunity to transport it northward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 If Euro joins the canadian/gfs party tonight I'm going to lock in at least an SECS for us. I wouldn't lock anything in yet. The window for this event is not a large one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 If Euro joins the canadian/gfs party tonight I'm going to lock in at least an SECS for us. Not a good move IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 There is a cute QPF bullseye over Cape May on the GFS. Is anyone worried about too much amplification? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 If Euro joins the canadian/gfs party tonight I'm going to lock in at least an SECS for us. Have you not learned from the past storms? They can have it and then lose it quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 According to records, there has been no major snowstorm for the mid atlantic during a strong la nina. Being that east coast of Maryland, Jersey and Delaware got over a foot of snow should we also throw out the last blizzard? No wait for the the real polar vortex to drop into Canada and pull everything north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 You can rarely believe the GFS verbatim 5 days out, but i like the optimistic Ian better then the depressed one. i've said it seemed like a 2-4/3-6 inch storm.. if things kept as they were that's where i'd go if it wasnt still at this range (but it's getting closer obviously). if the other globals follow up it could be real.. with the performance of late i dont expect this to lock in from here and look this good/better through the end like we saw in 09-10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 You can rarely believe the GFS verbatim 5 days out, but i like the optimistic Ian better then the depressed one. Trust me, it'll be rising from the grave a few times between now and Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 so it's good for it to be weaker initially (gom) in the end? i was just thinking more qpf gathering in the gom means more opportunity to transport it northward. Oops I worded that bad. The mass qpf and diabatic heat release through the atmosphere weakens that southern migratory wave and slows it down so the GFS can capture it and phase the low/mid level circulation before tracking up the coast. That is what you want, but that will depend on the cutoff taking that really far S track. If that southern PV is too fast and not captured, this storm is OTS like 18Z. If it is too weak and dumps too much qpf, there is nothing to phase and this prolly heads OTS. This is going to be interesting to see how the models handle this event the next few days. I bet it won't be very good though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Trust me, it'll be rising from the grave a few times between now and Monday. maybe not in fashion but also not unfounded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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