Quasievil Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Texas is a long way from dc Yeah I was thinking that this was a SC special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Texas is a long way from dc have you ever considered a career in cartography? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 we, I mean thay, have cumm a loong waa Careful. Ian may delete this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Yeah I was thinking that this was a SC special. the point was the SREFs only go out to 87 hours and they are showing a growing area of precip to the south with possible northern stream interaction with that stripe of precip coming down the plains most decent sized events have that "early brew time" down south before heading north/NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Texas is a long way from dc the low is modeled stronger in the gom than off the se coast on several models including the gfs/euro .. they have plenty of qpf yet it all slides east basically at the end. this is sorta where i lose the debate on miller a/b or would think these storms lately are more hybrid. we get reflections in the gom which are good i guess -- if nothing else it probably brings in some additional moisture, but they don't do much till they get toward the latitude of the carolinas+ like most miller bs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 The closed H5 low the GFS has over MN has at least a 90% chance of being an init error. 500MB lows rearely cut off north of the Jetstream without mature surface cyclone. I see nothing but a large high at the surface there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 the point was the SREFs only go out to 87 hours and they are showing a growing area of precip to the south with possible northern stream interaction with that stripe of precip coming down the plains most decent sized events have that "early brew time" down south before heading north/NE I hear ya...I'd hate to "Ji" a topic but don't forget about that seasonal trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 The closed H% low the GFS has over MN has at least a 90% chance of being an init error. 500MB lows rearely cut off north of the Jetstream without mature surface cyclone. I see nothing but a large high at the surface there. What do you think that means downstream? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I hear ya...I'd hate to "Ji" a topic but don't forget about that seasonal trend. mitchnick invented the seasonal trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 What do you think that means downstream? more snow of course! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 hey JI, the 36 hr NAM has its own snow shower just for your house tomorrow, and maybe Leesburg04 too enjoy it, it may be the thrill of the winter season http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/00/images/nam_ref_036l.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 mitchnick invented the seasonal trend The seasonal trend is VERY REAL. Book it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 mitchnick invented the seasonal trend I learned it the hard way in the winter of 72/73 that was a tough one we already have more snow this year than we did that entire winter season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 more snow of course! I love your thorough analysis. Top notch. HA! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 The seasonal trend is VERY REAL. Book it. I'm a big fan of persistence. It does flip sometimes tho. Probably second to climo past day 5-7 unless there is an overwhelming signal otherwise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I'm a big fan of persistence. It does flip sometimes tho. Probably second to climo past day 5-7 unless there is an overwhelming signal otherwise. really, persistence or seasonal trend is really meso scale climo (if there is such a definition) but you get my point iow climo for that season I would put it over general climo, but it depends on the year, and we won't know until the season is over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I learned it the hard way in the winter of 72/73 that was a tough one we already have more snow this year than we did that entire winter season this season will suck one way or another but i think we'll get some more snow to shovel (or brush at least). hopefully soon. I love your thorough analysis. Top notch. HA! assuming more upstream ridging would lead to more downstream amplification and a closer low .. or that's the idea there probably Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 really, persistence or seasonal trend is really meso scale climo (if there is such a definition) but you get my point iow climo for that season I would put it over general climo, but it depends on the year, and we won't know until the season is over I desperately want to understand what this means. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 this season will suck one way or another but i think we'll get some more snow to shovel (or brush at least). hopefully soon. assuming more upstream ridging would lead to more downstream amplification and a closer low .. or that's the idea there probably Gotcha. That's the one thing that my weenie eye noticed today. The ridging looked like crap. Hope we get some improvement there. BTW checked out your Flickr feed from the snowmageddon last year. Crazy good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 really, persistence or seasonal trend is really meso scale climo (if there is such a definition) but you get my point iow climo for that season I would put it over general climo, but it depends on the year, and we won't know until the season is over i think i can agree that you would tweak normal expectations of climo to the current pattern and get a superior product than climo alone. but climo is the baseline for the modification. for instance... out of a rough 957 accumulation events going back to the late 1800s at DC climo says... 71% less than 3" 80% less than 4" 89% less than 6" temps are easier when it comes to climo i guess, precip is always whacky and you can have a below avg precip month with above avg snow. definitely on feb 4 last yr we didnt need to say that there was an overwhelming chance the storm would be less than 6" because of climo. in a still borderline situation and a season that hasnt produced much at least climo keeps us in our place a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 What do you think that means downstream? The Euro or the GGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 The Euro or the GGEM Awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 i started a general model thread since people have been asking where they went and there should be one with storm threats Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 i started a general model thread since people have been asking where they went and there should be one with storm threats http://www.americanw...6-0z-models-16/ meh, it will just get loaded up with NYC and surrounding area posters there to talk about the norlun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Looks like the NAM has a bit come through from 36-42 and then again around 72 for all three airports...bwi does the best with about .12 Whoopee 1.2 inches will come close to matching my seasonal snowfall total so far . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Looks like the NAM has a bit come through from 36-42 and then again around 72 for all three airports...bwi does the best with about .12 problem is, the first bunch evaporates/melts before the second bunch comes through so I'm left with a trace Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 0z looks like its gonna be a nice solution...out to 120....anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Looks good through 138. GFS does some weird things this run...especially the phase with the southern wave...still a somewhat low probability event with the model spread large regarding the cutoff/southern wave--but not unrealistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Let's throw it out. DC can't get any appreciable snow in a strong Nina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 GFS is a hit. Low off the SC/NC coast and moves up the coast---- just off-shore. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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