ThePhotoGuy Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 yet, this is still out to our west at 174 hrs http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/images/gfs_500_174l.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 looks cold again http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/images/gfs_pcp_264m.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 looks cold again http://www.nco.ncep....fs_pcp_264m.gif and the block in Greenland rebuilds too http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer//gfs/18/gfs_500252276_l.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 i want a feb 1899 repeat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Yep, and at 264 (weenie land) it wants to reload the Gulf. Good enough to enjoy dinner and begin looking in 3-4 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Would you (or anyone else here) explain what's good on the 500? I was looking at it and I understand the basics of the 500 maps from reading along - eg for the 12/26 storm, I saw how the trough became negative in time for the storm to turn north and come up the coast from NC. However, with this, it's more NE at 144-150 which explains the NE track of the sfc low. What other things should I be looking for that you saw that my noob eye missed? Thanks. I don't think the 500h is great but it takes the vort south of us and is not closed off to our north. I like the upper levels a little more as it is suggesting upper level divergence and lifting along the left front exit region of a cyclonically curving jet streak. I don't think this looks like it has the making of a major snowstorm without considerable work at 500h which may be hard to accomplish with no real ridging upstream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 There is also a nice exit region of the jet. I'd rather this than Ji's Oh valley loving. Give me 2 or 3 inches and I'd be happy. That's pretty much what most of the analogs have been suggesting tho two showed 4 inch type storms. I'm sure it will be different next run. Yep I agree. I'd be all set with a 2-4 inch storm area wide enough to whiten the streets in downtown DC a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I don't think the 500h is great but it takes the vort south of us and is not closed off to our north. I like the upper levels a little more as it is suggesting upper level divergence and lifting along the left front exit region of a cyclonically curving jet streak. I don't think this looks like it has the making of a major snowstorm without considerable work at 500h which may be hard to accomplish with no real ridging upstream. could still use it to come north a bit but it's better than it was yesterday. the lack of ridging does probably cap us though with more ridging it was wanting to pump the storm up early and try to cut it west. so in this case less might be better? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Swiscaster Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 not bad half of that around DC is probably from the fantasy Norlun trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 GFS looks great for 150 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 half of that around DC is probably from the fantasy Norlun trough. It is 150 hours away... the whole thing is a fantasy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Swiscaster Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 It is 150 hours away... the whole thing is a fantasy. haha, so true! I see no difference between what the models are showing for this one than they did for the past 2 or 3 that whiffed us to the south and east. In fact, if the dates in the thread title were changed, I would assume this was an old thread. Same themes are popping up almost word-for-word: "don't worry what is at the surface, 500 looks good" "I like the low position" "I'd rather have it show a miss south and east than be north and west right now" "it will come north/west" "will be closer to the coast due to baroclinic zone" "reminds me of Dec19/Feb2/Feb6" <please add any others> Can someone look at the models or pattern and tell why there is any indication this story will end differently than the others? I think a lot of people are just playing the odds: "There's NO WAY 3 in a row could whiff us!" (I am kind of doing that.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 haha, so true! I see no difference between what the models are showing for this one than they did for the past 2 or 3 that whiffed us to the south and east. In fact, if the dates in the thread title were changed, I would assume this was an old thread. Same themes are popping up almost word-for-word: "don't worry what is at the surface, 500 looks good" "I like the low position" "I'd rather have it show a miss south and east than be north and west right now" "it will come north/west" "will be closer to the coast due to baroclinic zone" "reminds me of Dec19/Feb2/Feb6" <please add any others> Can someone look at the models or pattern and tell why there is any indication this story will end differently than the others? I think a lot of people are just playing the odds: "There's NO WAY 3 in a row could whiff us!" (I am kind of doing that.) Some of us are very concerned about the seasonal trend. We would just rather see it offshore right now with room to move back west than right on top of us. Perhaps that is just silly weenieism. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Swiscaster Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Some of us are very concerned about the seasonal trend. We would just rather see it offshore right now with room to move back west than right on top of us. Perhaps that is just silly weenieism. Yes, in general, I always like to see it south/east more than north/west just because I can't remember too many times a storm has come south/east more once models show a rainy solution for us. But this year may be different... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I actually think if the closed low as further southeast maybe over KY, then it would have a much bigger influnce on the surface low and acutally pull it further northwest. Kind of like the GGEM and Euro, which actaully show a ridge over MN!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I like the overall setup at 500h on just about all the models for a storm. Now the details in the configuration at 500h and speed of the smaller waves around the pv will ultimately determine the magnitude, but I'm gaining confidence that we get a decent 2+ inch storm out of this setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Two years after my last below-zero reading, and I believe the last time DCA was in single digits. 850 temp of -24 at MRB, 1000-500mb thickness of 497, and -2F with winds to 20 mph. Would love to see this come close to verifying.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeanVA Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Yes, in general, I always like to see it south/east more than north/west just because I can't remember too many times a storm has come south/east more once models show a rainy solution for us. But this year may be different... This threat has been in the GEFS, GFS, Euro, and GGEM, for 4 or so days now although not as consistent of a hit with the European models. The GEFS has been very consistent with this threat. This is different from last time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I thought all the runs from today were positive, and in fact, the pattern as a whole over the next 2 or 3 weeks. I think there is alot of wiggle room where if the evolution of the PV in the lakes is different than modeled, we still are in pretty good shape. Slower moving our will allow the lead southern wave to be held up and have a chance to phase with the Pac NW enery for a bigger storm giving us snow. Quicker moving out, then the lead wave rides the coast for snow on Monday. Since the PV will be stronger than modeled a couple days ago, lower heights in the lakes pretty much rule out any kind of low cutting. Granted I can see how its discouraging not having 3 feet shown IMBY 5 days out...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 haha, so true! I see no difference between what the models are showing for this one than they did for the past 2 or 3 that whiffed us to the south and east. In fact, if the dates in the thread title were changed, I would assume this was an old thread. Same themes are popping up almost word-for-word: "don't worry what is at the surface, 500 looks good" "I like the low position" "I'd rather have it show a miss south and east than be north and west right now" "it will come north/west" "will be closer to the coast due to baroclinic zone" "reminds me of Dec19/Feb2/Feb6" <please add any others> Can someone look at the models or pattern and tell why there is any indication this story will end differently than the others? I think a lot of people are just playing the odds: "There's NO WAY 3 in a row could whiff us!" (I am kind of doing that.) even looking at things pessimistically it appears better than most of the threats in that there are a few outs etc... we're not necessarily waiting on 12 ingredients to come together right. it could very easily miss.. i'd probably still lean toward that (though less so than yesterday) just given that it's still pretty far out there. we just need to be content with a "normal" snowstorm and not look for a blockbuster imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Two years after my last below-zero reading, and I believe the last time DCA was in single digits. 850 temp of -24 at MRB, 1000-500mb thickness of 497, and -2F with winds to 20 mph. Would love to see this come close to verifying.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Two years after my last below-zero reading, and I believe the last time DCA was in single digits. 850 temp of -24 at MRB, 1000-500mb thickness of 497, and -2F with winds to 20 mph. Would love to see this come close to verifying.. hard to have a ton of confidence with the bouncing re epic cold but it still seems to want to try at some pt. we got to 8 at dca on jan 17 09.. gotta go back to 1996 for colder, then 1994 for closer to or below 0. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ovechkin Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Epic cold is so much better with snow on the ground. even just an inch or 2. With bare ground it's like cake without the icing. hopefully one of these threats will work out and then the arctic floodgates will open up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Something else to note is the Nogaps has had the storm and the same basic evolution for the last 10 runs, sans one run yesterday that took a primary into the OV before Miller B to the coast. It has given us snow every time. If that model is not surpressed, there's quite a bit of confidence that the end result will not be either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Something else to note is the Nogaps has had the storm and the same basic evolution for the last 10 runs, sans one run yesterday that took a primary into the OV before Miller B to the coast. It has given us snow every time. If that model is not surpressed, there's quite a bit of confidence that the end result will not be either. i cant remember the last time i looked at the nogaps on purpose Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 correct me if I am wrong, but I do not believe the GGEM ever showed such a threat for us with the 12/26 storm my recollection is that it and the NAM were always against us getting anything substantial thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 i cant remember the last time i looked at the nogaps on purpose It's been much better than the flipping crap the GFS and Euro has been spitting out in the mid range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 How were the 12Z Euro ensembles? Usually Ender pops in to tell us they were horrid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris21 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 It's been much better than the flipping crap the GFS and Euro has been spitting out in the mid range. Its verification scores are far lower Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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