stormtracker Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 18z gfs looking at 500mb this run is going to to look mighty different Agreed. Low int he gulf and associated moisture is farther north. The s/w is still getting squashed but looks healthier than 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Maritime low lifting out quicker also at 96 it should be closer this run i think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 faster/norther in gom by 96 much further north with the precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 How do you type the noise you make when you take a deep breath and exhale loudly? Sigh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 much further north with the precip it definitely looks better thru 114.. should be a hit of some sort -- just not wildly different imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 it definitely looks better thru 114.. should be a hit of some sort -- just not wildly different imo more snow to dc this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowchill Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 ots good hit for va Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 it definitely looks better thru 114.. should be a hit of some sort -- just not wildly different imo Yep, not too bad at 138. Not an impressive amount of precip but position of the surface low isn't bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 bombs a hair late but a decent storm for va md Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 a lot of it is that it's about 6-12+ hours faster .. surface track not terribly different, smidge west i guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 5, 2011 Author Share Posted January 5, 2011 notice that shield that protects DC from snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Yep, not too bad at 138. Not an impressive amount of precip but position of the surface low isn't bad. I think she's getting outta here though .. OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Yep, not too bad at 138. Not an impressive amount of precip but position of the surface low isn't bad. Looks more than 12 hrs quicker though. Not sure why everything has accelerated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Reminds me of the cutoff with last years storms. or 12/26/10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/images/gfs_700_138l.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 norlun for dc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 looks like we get some inverted trough lovin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Hate to bring out the weenieism, but I think we should be happy where this is now on the GFS. At about 78 hours, thats when we want it to be epic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 5, 2011 Author Share Posted January 5, 2011 sorry guys but the ohio valley track was much better for DC than this BS...gave us way more qpf even though there was a bit of mix. Plus the 500mb low closed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 norlun for dc We're set. That always works out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 5, 2011 Author Share Posted January 5, 2011 Hate to bring out the weenieism, but I think we should be happy where this is now on the GFS. At about 0.78 hours, thats when we want it to be epic fixed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 500 is still pretty good for this range.. which is all that really matters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Hate to bring out the weenieism, but I think we should be happy where this is now on the GFS. At about 78 hours, thats when we want it to be epic it's perfect for right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I'll take it at this juncture. Not a wild spread like the past few days. More consistent. 500 looks good and there's .25 to .50 west to the blue ridge. Faster too, so we can subtract a model run or 2 for JI's sake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I like where we're with this storm so far. It's way better to have a variety of models showing relatively positive things for us that can easily trend in our direction than having one model showing an absolute bomb with no support. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 500 is still pretty good for this range.. which is all that really matters There is also a nice exit region of the jet. I'd rather this than Ji's Oh valley loving. Give me 2 or 3 inches and I'd be happy. That's pretty much what most of the analogs have been suggesting tho two showed 4 inch type storms. I'm sure it will be different next run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 500 is still pretty good for this range.. which is all that really matters Would you (or anyone else here) explain what's good on the 500? I was looking at it and I understand the basics of the 500 maps from reading along - eg for the 12/26 storm, I saw how the trough became negative in time for the storm to turn north and come up the coast from NC. However, with this, it's more NE at 144-150 which explains the NE track of the sfc low. What other things should I be looking for that you saw that my noob eye missed? Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 i like snow more than my family jesus not bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I'll take it at this juncture. Not a wild spread like the past few days. More consistent. 500 looks good and there's .25 to .50 west to the blue ridge. Faster too, so we can subtract a model run or 2 for JI's sake. the good thing is that even faster we still get something.. so timing is not as big of an issue maybe. i dont think this will be a huge storm either way unless it's too huge and goes west but that seems less likely today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 There is also a nice exit region of the jet. I'd rather this than Ji's Oh valley loving. Give me 2 or 3 inches and I'd be happy. That's pretty much what most of the analogs have been suggesting tho two showed 4 inch type storms. I'm sure it will be different next run. yeah im not a big fan of a closed 500 and 850 low passing well to my northwest. or rain falling on fresh snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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