PhineasC Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Does it loop back and hit SNE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 5, 2011 Author Share Posted January 5, 2011 blah...at least its not cutting it never cut. Its always been suppressed. good trend i guess from the bullcrap it gave us at 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Fingers crossed it gets captured in time to give a big storm Philly to NY. Those guys need something good to happen for them... hopefully they never get snow again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Does it loop back and hit SNE? nope... goes almost due east as it bombs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 5, 2011 Author Share Posted January 5, 2011 ive read by Ender that the Euro Ensembles have been consistently west of the OP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 over all this is a huge step in the right direction. the first S/W stays alot stronger through the south, the northen branch dives in and closes off and tries to grab it, all timing here. the precip field has shifted well north this run all just a tad slower Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 over all this is a huge step in the right direction. the first S/W stays alot stronger through the south, the northen branch dives in and closes off and tries to grab it, all timing here. the precip field has shifted well north this run all just a tad slower my issue and the euro has done this a few times now recently in one spot or another is the fact that the slp sorta stalls for 24 hours off the se coast waiting to be picked up. i wonder how likely that is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 More good news. GFS ensemble members mostly support the op through 132 hrs. There are a couple that have some potential though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 my issue and the euro has done this a few times now recently in one spot or another is the fact that the slp sorta stalls for 24 hours off the se coast waiting to be picked up. i wonder how likely that is. That can happen and is always hard to predict. It's happening because the 1st impulse petty much damps out as the real energy and upper level divergence is associated with the strong trough to the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 my issue and the euro has done this a few times now recently in one spot or another is the fact that the slp sorta stalls for 24 hours off the se coast waiting to be picked up. i wonder how likely that is. yea it just drifts for a full day before it cranks up. if it can sit closer to the coast that would make a huge difference Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 5, 2011 Author Share Posted January 5, 2011 If a storm is perfect 132-168..it has no way to go but down. So here is to better trends in the next few days. My initial call for this storm Leesburg dusting DC 1-2 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 One of these storms is gonna hit us. I feel it in my bones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 That can happen and is always hard to predict. It's happening because the 1st impulse petty much damps out as the real energy and upper level divergence is associated with the strong trough to the west. ok thx. i can see that i think.. it just doesnt seem like something we see that often. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 If a storm is perfect 132-168..it has no way to go but down. So here is to better trends in the next few days. My initial call for this storm Leesburg dusting Dryslotted DC 4-8 inches Fixed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Fixed. thanks!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 ggem and the euro are much more amped up with the first S/W coming through the south gfs has hardly squat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Actually through 156 hr on the GFS ensemble 5 members pull it off and bring the storm up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 nope... goes almost due east as it bombs Very similar track to our blizzards of 2009-2010 with the sharp precip cutoff on the north side, just slightly too too far south and east for us, which I believe is what happened last year at this range too. The low moves roughly nne along the coast and then out to sea when it gets to about baltimore latitude. I like the looks of it if the models can drift it northwest a bit over coming days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 ukie OTS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Very similar track to our blizzards of 2009-2010 with the sharp precip cutoff on the north side, just slightly too too far south and east for us, which I believe is what happened last year at this range too. The low moves roughly nne along the coast and then out to sea when it gets to about baltimore latitude. I like the looks of it if the models can drift it northwest a bit over coming days. yeah except the euro did the same thing just closer to us in this range for dec 26.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 5, 2011 Author Share Posted January 5, 2011 JB was riding the UK from 00z. it must of flopped Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 euro is probably doing its south west slow SW bias here, don't know what that would mean if it was faster with that huge PV sitting over the great lakes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 yeah except the euro did the same thing just closer to us in this range for dec 26.. If I recall correctly the Euro had a super bomb that retrograded to the west just south of dc prior to the 12/26 event, and it also didn't have the support of any other models like it does in this case today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 for a NINA, there sure are a lot of storms going into the SE where's the SE Ridge? I've been looking at the SSTA maps and it seems to me that the big diff between this year and other NINA years is that the waters off the SE coast of US are darn cold prior years they were much warmer and maybe supported the SE Ridge This year's SSTA: http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom.gif here are links to prior NINA's or recent history, look how much warmer the waters are off SE coast compared to this year: http://weather.unisys.com/archive/sst/sst_anom-080106.gif http://weather.unisys.com/archive/sst/sst_anom-090111.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 mid jan thaw on the euro day 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Can we go back to consolidated model threads in the main forum? Please? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 mid jan thaw on the euro day 10 Was the Euro showing the bitter cold on previous runs like the GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 mid jan thaw on the euro day 10 maybe brief, however http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!240!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2011010512!!/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 in fact, cold looks to be oozing south on this loop note as well the cross polar cold occurring on the last couple of frames http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/animate/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!0!North%20hemisphere!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2011010512!!!step/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 mid jan thaw on the euro day 10 What....no brutal awesomeness of bone numbing cold????? No!!!!!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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