Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Yes! The ensembles have quite a few members giving us a decent storm. [ They are pretty encouraging. wow thats a nice change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Yes! The ensembles have quite a few members giving us a decent storm. They are pretty encouraging. yeah not bad.. i do like the look of the globals since late yesterday compared to prior. but these big jumps over a few hours are still really problematic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 wow thats a nice change It is a nice change and gives support to either the 12 ggem or GFS or somewhere in between. Today's D+8 analogs give dc two 4 inch storms out of the 10 listed and 3 one inch plus storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 mid west cutter was it the ggem that had a low over chicago yesterday? Ian - found the 12z from yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Yes! The ensembles have quite a few members giving us a decent storm. They are pretty encouraging. I always love P0009. Seems like it's programmed to clobber DC most of the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Both the 6z GFS and the Canadian out just now brought us a storm in basically the same set-up, right? Primary up to OV, and then transfer to coast? That's a clasic Miller B look, if so, right? That alone makes me itchy about this scenario. I know that the occasional Miller B can work for us, but given the way this winter has started, was hoping for more of a Miller A type coastal or over-running event for the snow chance next week... it's sort of a hybrid again perhaps (i dont think dec 26 was a true miller a still). everything so far has been largely northern stream created/controlled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 yeah not bad.. i do like the look of the globals since late yesterday compared to prior. but these big jumps over a few hours are still really problematic. That's why I like looking at the mean patter for a period as it's a little more stable as it means out the faster moving, shorter wavelengths. 50% gave us snow. The jumping around is liable to continue right up until 72 hours of so since the northern vortex is so important to what will happen. I still like the pattern but that doesn't mean much. I don't think things have to come together quite as much to get snow for us as the dec 26th event for what that is worth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 it's sort of a hybrid again perhaps (i dont think dec 26 was a true miller a still). everything so far has been largely northern stream created/controlled. Thanks for the response. Still working at reading maps and understanding the development and progress of the lows as modeled. The ones that "jump" are still hard for me to figure when reading the model runs... (or not jump, as the case may be, if there is a second low simply developing at same time as primary. I guess. The whole redevelopment thing still puzzles me). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 it's sort of a hybrid again perhaps (i dont think dec 26 was a true miller a still). everything so far has been largely northern stream created/controlled. I don't think the 12Z gfs run is a classic miller b as there is a low to the south that actually is stronger than the northern one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 That's why I like looking at the mean patter for a period as it's a little more stable as it means out the faster moving, shorter wavelengths. 50% gave us snow. The jumping around is liable to continue right up until 72 hours of so since the northern vortex is so important to what will happen. I still like the pattern but that doesn't mean much. I don't think things have to come together quite as much to get snow for us as the dec 26th event for what that is worth. That last statement is pretty promising right there, Wes. Perhaps after our brief warm-up a few days ago we'll have a better shot. Clearing the board? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 yeah not bad.. i do like the look of the globals since late yesterday compared to prior. but these big jumps over a few hours are still really problematic. I think the jumps and the ensemble members are indicating that we can do well with any number of different solutions. That's always a good sign in that we don't have to thread the needle to get a decent event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I'm just glad my snow weenie eggs are not in a Norlun basket at the moment. People talking themselves into 10 inch snowfall Friday/Saturday in a few of the other threads... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I think the jumps and the ensemble members are indicating that we can do well with any number of different solutions. That's always a good sign in that we don't have to thread the needle to get a decent event. This is probably more like a tight parallel parking situation rather than a thread the needle event now. Still tough but perhaps not as bad as a needle! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I'm just glad my snow weenie eggs are not in a Norlun basket at the moment. People talking themselves into 10 inch snowfall Friday/Saturday in a few of the other threads... it does look legit for someone but im glad i dont have to forecast anything for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I think the jumps and the ensemble members are indicating that we can do well with any number of different solutions. That's always a good sign in that we don't have to thread the needle to get a decent event. yeah well i think the most positive sign is the move away from an inland threat. i think the other options all want to at least try to give us something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 FWIW, and that's probably nothing, the warmup advertised by the GFS doesn't have much ensemble support. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 it does look legit for someone but im glad i dont have to forecast anything for it. Given that a payoff of around 8-10 inches (if it happens at all) will be very limited and hard to pin down, and that people 50 miles from that zone might get two inches, I am sure the local mets up that way are not looking forward to making that call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Given that a payoff of around 8-10 inches (if it happens at all) will be very limited and hard to pin down, and that people 50 miles from that zone might get two inches, I am sure the local mets up that way are not looking forward to making that call. Euro has the bullsye in SNE. NYC .1ish on the Euro as opposed to close to .8 on the 12z NAM. Not a forecast I'd like to make! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 yeah not bad.. i do like the look of the globals since late yesterday compared to prior. but these big jumps over a few hours are still really problematic. I'll say a bit of optimistic, good news, great things, but then I'll say something negative and negate everything I said before. Snap out of it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 hr 90 euro pv is stronger and over ny pa. S/W is closed was not at 0z and is a tad slower over texas panhandle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 hr 90 euro pv is stronger and over ny pa. S/W is closed was not at 0z and is a tad slower over texas panhandle Make this run work or we're locking you in the basement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 hr 90 euro pv is stronger and over ny pa. S/W is closed was not at 0z and is a tad slower over texas panhandle The monster run a few days ago had the PV pretty far south and the sw stop and wait sort of like the gfs did today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I'll say a bit of optimistic, good news, great things, but then I'll say something negative and negate everything I said before. Snap out of it! just very uncertain... i want snow but that doesnt make it snow at least based on so far -- the 'trends' are good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 hr 108 1004mb low just south of la. coast nice snowstorm for ark. sw much stronger this run 0z was just plain flat now it is dug down to la coast neg tilt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 euro a lot more consolidated with the first low in the gom.. not sure that means anything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 The monster run a few days ago had the PV pretty far south and the sw stop and wait sort of like the gfs did today Hi leesburg. Hi. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 hr 108 1004mb low just south of la. coast nice snowstorm for ark. sw much stronger this run 0z was just plain flat now it is dug down to la coast neg tilt northern LA gets crushed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 hr 108 1004mb low just south of la. coast nice snowstorm for ark. sw much stronger this run 0z was just plain flat now it is dug down to la coast neg tilt Bring it home Midlo. Basement door still open... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 northern LA gets crushed How much for Baton Rouge? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 northern LA gets crushed How much for Tallahassee Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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