Herb@MAWS Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Radar loop say it all. I forecasted 2" for BWI in the Ne.Wx Snowfall Forecast Contest. If they get 2", I'll be pleased, given the set-up. http://www.newx-forecasts.com/ I sometimes wonder why more folks don't participate, since everyone wants to boldy announce their snowfall forecasts here over and over again. Ne.Wx contest results are deeply-seated in math and are very logical. Will be interesting to see who gets to 1" first with this event -- BWI or Cape May. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 same reason you hang around after a funeral the memories Good point. Like watching a train wreck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vinylfreak89 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I just had a little blink in my power as well... conspiracy? BTW, a little protip for ya: Don't over-analyze the models. thanks for the advice... its not so much the models that I'm looking at but the mesoscale features they are putting out and deteriming the interaction of such features... I have always been a synoptic guy... looking at the overall pattern.... only recently have I truly begun to look mesoscale... may be too much of a good thing and cluttering my brain, but I think give it time and I will learn more from it. i try to use the models as a comparison to what is actually going on, or maybe the physics/resolution isn't good enough to make those fine predictions. your thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marked8 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 WTOP said a little while ago up to an inch in D.C, a trace if that south and west. Another week of watching discussion and models for a trace. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Tomorrow is going to be a long day...we're already getting surface obs and radar hallucinations..when people see the radar tom morning they are going to scream storm cancel... This dude made this post last night at 10:49....whether the storm fizzles completely or not this was a dead on post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 If you feel like melting down log off. I am just waiting for the 1" we are getting to melt . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Blizzard warning for Boston, 12-18" for them :arrowhead: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vinylfreak89 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 for the most part correct, but the moisture convergence and lift is going to be north of the trough, once you get south of the trough it shuts off so we should be getting snow now. By the time that energy out west gets in here....that is mostly north of us. Also the western energy has definitely taken a turn NE instead of east. I thought we still had a shot when that was moving east earlier today but...you can clearly see its going north of this area. i know its to the north of the trough where the fun and games occur...my point is the trough is still south of us.... except say southern MD at this hour so it still gives us a little bit of time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 LWX dropped the WWA south and west of DC. Looking at satellite/radar its funny there is no coastal yet at all. I would be really worried in NYC right now. THis has massive bust for them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 LWX dropped the WWA south and west of DC. Looking at satellite/radar its funny there is no coastal yet at all. I would be really worried in NYC right now. THis has massive bust for them A massive bust for them would be 4-8", I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArlingtonWX Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Complete newbie here: What are the chances this slips into a widespread icing situation? 0.1 QPF as ice would be a nasty coating. Any thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 LWX dropped the WWA south and west of DC. Looking at satellite/radar its funny there is no coastal yet at all. I would be really worried in NYC right now. THis has massive bust for them I don't really know what you are talking about. The 18Z analysis was already lower than all guidance with the coastal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 thanks for the advice... its not so much the models that I'm looking at but the mesoscale features they are putting out and deteriming the interaction of such features... I have always been a synoptic guy... looking at the overall pattern.... only recently have I truly begun to look mesoscale... may be too much of a good thing and cluttering my brain, but I think give it time and I will learn more from it. i try to use the models as a comparison to what is actually going on, or maybe the physics/resolution isn't good enough to make those fine predictions. your thoughts? That's one of my thoughts right there. My suggestion would be to first figure out the limitations of the different models before doing in-depth analysis of the output. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Looks like a total bust. Maybe a dusting later as the western energy swings through. PHL and NYC better worry. Don't worry about SNE; the storm will do whatever it needs to do in order to slam them, including stopping entirely, drifting backwards, and looping around off the coast of Maine a few times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Complete newbie here: What are the chances this slips into a widespread icing situation? 0.1 QPF as ice would be a nasty coating. Any thoughts? Widespread icing = Massive I-95 parking lot & associated humanitarian crisis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 In some ways this is worse than 12/26.. At Least it pretended to try for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 ... Winter Storm Warning in effect until 6 am EST Thursday... The National Weather Service in Pittsburgh has issued a Winter Storm Warning for heavy snow... which is in effect until 6 am EST Thursday. The Winter Weather Advisory is no longer in effect but instead has been upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning. * Accumulation: a quick 2 to 3 inches of snow is expected through 11 PM today. A total of 3 to 5 inches will accumulate through Wednesday... with additional 3 to 5 inches accumulation expected Wednesday night. Total storm accumulation will be 6 to 10 inches in Tucker Preston and Garrett counties... with locally up to 12 inches or more for northwest facing slopes at highest elevations. * Timing: steady snow will continue through 11 PM... then transition to occasional snow showers overnight. Lake effect snow showers will pick up in intensity Wednesday and continue Wednesday night. * Impacts: conditions will deteriorate rapidly this afternoon as the steady accumulating snow continues... making for a difficult evening commute. Expect snow covered roads. Areas of blowing and drifting snow are possible Wednesday and Wednesday night. * Visibilities: below a mile at times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Benchmark Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Looks like the radar is beginning to fill in to the west of DC as the precip approaches... hope this continues as it moves east! Down to 30 degrees here but all the talk of sleet and drizzle up to and north of Bel Air and Monkton is not re-assuring... http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?num=6&delay=15&scale=1.00&noclutter=0&ID=LWX&type=N0R&lat=39.00733185&lon=-76.68267822&label=Crofton%2C+MD&showstorms=0&showlabels=1&rainsnow=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Looks like a total bust. Maybe a dusting later as the western energy swings through. PHL and NYC better worry. Don't worry about SNE; the storm will do whatever it needs to do in order to slam them, including stopping entirely, drifting backwards, and looping around off the coast of Maine a few times. PHL is already toast I thought. NYC is next in line for the steamrolling POS that's coming up the coast. Models get the BIG FAIL again. Not just for this area but really all around. Just horrible performance this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iammrben Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 ... Winter Storm Warning in effect until 6 am EST Thursday... The National Weather Service in Pittsburgh has issued a Winter Storm Warning for heavy snow... which is in effect until 6 am EST Thursday. The Winter Weather Advisory is no longer in effect but instead has been upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning. * Accumulation: a quick 2 to 3 inches of snow is expected through 11 PM today. A total of 3 to 5 inches will accumulate through Wednesday... with additional 3 to 5 inches accumulation expected Wednesday night. Total storm accumulation will be 6 to 10 inches in Tucker Preston and Garrett counties... with locally up to 12 inches or more for northwest facing slopes at highest elevations. * Timing: steady snow will continue through 11 PM... then transition to occasional snow showers overnight. Lake effect snow showers will pick up in intensity Wednesday and continue Wednesday night. * Impacts: conditions will deteriorate rapidly this afternoon as the steady accumulating snow continues... making for a difficult evening commute. Expect snow covered roads. Areas of blowing and drifting snow are possible Wednesday and Wednesday night. * Visibilities: below a mile at times. Yep, primary is stronger than they expected... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 ... Winter Storm Warning in effect until 6 am EST Thursday... The National Weather Service in Pittsburgh has issued a Winter Storm Warning for heavy snow... which is in effect until 6 am EST Thursday. The Winter Weather Advisory is no longer in effect but instead has been upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning. * Accumulation: a quick 2 to 3 inches of snow is expected through 11 PM today. A total of 3 to 5 inches will accumulate through Wednesday... with additional 3 to 5 inches accumulation expected Wednesday night. Total storm accumulation will be 6 to 10 inches in Tucker Preston and Garrett counties... with locally up to 12 inches or more for northwest facing slopes at highest elevations. * Timing: steady snow will continue through 11 PM... then transition to occasional snow showers overnight. Lake effect snow showers will pick up in intensity Wednesday and continue Wednesday night. * Impacts: conditions will deteriorate rapidly this afternoon as the steady accumulating snow continues... making for a difficult evening commute. Expect snow covered roads. Areas of blowing and drifting snow are possible Wednesday and Wednesday night. * Visibilities: below a mile at times. You drove out there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Colonel Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 In some ways this is worse than 12/26.. At Least it pretended to try for a while. It's like hooking up with a fat chick. Sure it's fun for a few days...but pretty soon it gets old and you are looking for the next sexy thing down the road. not to mention the shame you have after your friends found out what you did with your time and effort Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Yep, primary is stronger than they the computers expected... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Yep, primary is stronger than they expected... Being stuck in the DC snowhole sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I don't really know what you are talking about. The 18Z analysis was already lower than all guidance with the coastal. correct but so is the Ohio Valley low, and its messing up the ability for the coastal to develop a good low level circulation and advect moisture inland. Until the energy transfers to the coast and phases the coastal is a dead wave. That should be happening now and I do not see signs of it yet. I am not saying NYC is not getting snow...just not sure about these 12" numbers they are throwing around. Might still happen in time but I am skeptical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 You drove out there? I wish. I am stuck at my day job in DC. I would have gone out there if not for real life. I also didn't expect them to do this well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dalfy Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 18z gfs is west by like 25-50 miles but there is less precip....... better for sne.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Nashville might be too far to be looking but the stuff in WV should make it in some fashion. It's being driven by the 500 low. Yea, I was just weenie extrapolating the energy around the wheel. Nice to see the southern extent down that far considering the low is moving NE. Honestly, I never had high expectations once the miller b solution was locked but I still think accumulating snow is likely for our parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Symblized Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 18z gfs is west by like 25-50 miles but there is less precip....... better for sne.. Looks like BWI gets at least an inch, I'm guessing not too much more. Less than .1 the first 6 hours, over .1 the next 6 from the graphic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 18z gfs is west by like 25-50 miles but there is less precip....... better for sne.. Just like DEC 26th, all of the praying and hoping we did for the past 3 days did nothing but help SNE go from 10 inches to 20. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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