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Jan 11-12 Model/Forecasting Discussion


Ji

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Well at least the weather is CONSISTENT - WE get screwed over yet again. It smarts - but at least we weren't progged to get a lot of snow. That would REALLY hurt. No need to suicide over a couple of inches of snow.

I said this before - We need a reshuffle. If this was a game of blackjack, DCA would be 200,000 dollars in the hole. WE're losing bad. We need a reshuffle really bad. F*ck the house rules - get that damn deck reshuffled.

We need to dump this cold air, enjoy highs in the upper 60s for three weeks then get the block back - Start fresh.

This aint workin' - we're getting screwed over and PA will get all of our snow.

Gawd I'm such a disgusting weenie - last night I got so worked up over that damned radar - I wasted SEVEN HOURS over sh*t. We get nothing after all g-d what a disgusting fooking weenie I am geeze.

I need a new goddamn hobby. N VA sucks huge goat balls and this winter is a pile of steaming sh*t. I hate this winter. I want spring already - This just sucks. You know it's real bad when you can't even get a couple damn inches of snow in DC. F*CK F*CK F*CK!!!!!!!!

Wow, calm down man.

The problem is you're focusing on the things in life that don't really matter. When I was a kid I had hopes and dreams. We all did. But over time, the daily grind gets in the way and you miss the things that really matter, even though they are right in front of you, staring you in the face. I think the next time you should ask yourself "Am I on the right track here?". I don't mean to be rude but people like you I really pity. So maybe you could use the few brain cells you have and take advantage of the knowledge I have given you now. Good luck.

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Check out what Justin Burk from abc2 news just posted on FB regarding this.

"Surface map shows Ohio storm winning the race to develop faster. It is stronger now and models didn't expect that. There is still an EAST WIND at BWI (good for moisture, bad for sleet) and transition zone likely to fill in in the next 2-4 hours. This is just the beginning. The steady and heavier stuff has been slated to reach us within a few hours of midnight. If OH Lo wins... less snow for New England, but could pull the coastal moisture into and through us."

I like Justin, but he busted huge on 12/26 and really went down with the ship, not changing his forecast until very late. It feels like he's unrealistically bullish on this one as well.

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I have learned over the past 2 years that seasonal trends should not be ignored. another classic example. It's amazing that 2 different setups. 2-3 weeks apart, are giving us the exact same result- snow to the south, north, west, east, but not us. I won't trust a single forecast that gives us snow again this season. We're the NJ Devils of this winter- Great season last year, hapless this year. It happens. Like in sports, there is always next year.

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Check out what Justin Burk from abc2 news just posted on FB regarding this.

"Surface map shows Ohio storm winning the race to develop faster. It is stronger now and models didn't expect that. There is still an EAST WIND at BWI (good for moisture, bad for sleet) and transition zone likely to fill in in the next 2-4 hours. This is just the beginning. The steady and heavier stuff has been slated to reach us within a few hours of midnight. If OH Lo wins... less snow for New England, but could pull the coastal moisture into and through us."

that Low is in OH and moving NE and strengthening

with all due respect to him as I know he posts here, that ain't happening with the 700mb and 850mb Lows way NW of us

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Wow, calm down man.

The problem is you're focusing on the things in life that don't really matter. When I was a kid I had hopes and dreams. We all did. But over time, the daily grind gets in the way and you miss the things that really matter, even though they are right in front of you, staring you in the face. I think the next time you should ask yourself "Am I on the right track here?". I don't mean to be rude but people like you I really pity. So maybe you could use the few brain cells you have and take advantage of the knowledge I have given you now. Good luck.

You're right.

Back to social media.

After all - There's always next winter.

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Justin Berk (on his Facebook wall) in response to people freaking out about the lack of snow:

Before you all get worked up... the OH Low is stronger.. but needs to have the trough swing past the mountains before coastal moisture gets pulled west an fills in the hole. All of the models had this after dark with max precip tonight. This early stuff was a benefit of the easterly wind...which also hurt. If you read my blog yesterday, then you knew that a stronger northern system or closer coastal would bring more sleet.
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I don't know what is wrong with me but the returns breaking out around Nashville have me optimistic that accumulating snow will happen. Enough energy will cross the mountains, hook up with the east wind, grab some lift and dynamics from the coastal, a dump on us for a couple of hours.

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I'm gonna hang on till the bitter end. I still have faith this thing will crank up by at least 7pm.

I'm with you. It doesn't take much to get to an inch of snow. Though I do enjoy reading the suicidal posts that have been coming in because the models have taken away an inch or two of snow.

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I don't know what is wrong with me but the returns breaking out around Nashville have me optimistic that accumulating snow will happen. Enough energy will cross the mountains, hook up with the east wind, grab some lift and dynamics from the coastal, a dump on us for a couple of hours.

Nashville might be too far to be looking but the stuff in WV should make it in some fashion. It's being driven by the 500 low.

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