Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,607
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    NH8550
    Newest Member
    NH8550
    Joined

Jan 11-12 Model/Forecasting Discussion


Ji

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 6k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

its too late for us, the best case scenario now is an inch...ill pass. I am rooting now that the trend continues and the coastal is another few hours slower developing and there is no storm at all....this is honestly getting really close to being no big deal for anyone except southern new england. At least then we do not have to track another close miss...this time its missing us by 300 miles lol

Link to comment
Share on other sites

it would be worth watching if there wasn't a mountain range there.

This.

They may be small, but they stop a lot.

As for the LWX, I give them some slack because this storm was tricky, but the constant revisions the day of kind of take the "fore" out of forecasting. I will be giving my predictions for this storm on Friday.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Okay let me make this clear. If you base what's going to happen 4 hrs from now on current radar than you are going to be majorly let down. All the modeling has shown light snow and flurries until about 4 or 5. The models blossom light to moderate and even heavy snow for a couple hours literally right over top of the DC/Balt/Annapolis area. So you will be watching radar and nothing will be there and then all of sudden boom you will get your quick 1-3 inches. That's what's been modeled all along. Is there a chance it converges to our northeast? Yes. But again what I just described is what has been modeled all along. Sit back and watch the radar.

I'm sticking with my common sense conclusion. I don't trust anything but the Green. The models have been completely unreliable, from what I've seen.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

FWIW (Baltimore):

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY.

* PRECIPITATION TYPE...SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING DRIZZLE.

* ACCUMULATIONS...2 TO 3 INCHES...MAINLY SNOW. A GLAZE OF ICE POSSIBLE.

* TIMING...SNOW WILL BECOME MORE STEADY BY EARLY EVENING...AND CONTINUE MUCH OF THE NIGHT...ENDING BETWEEN 4 AM AND 6 AM. THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL BE BETWEEN 9 PM AND 3 AM. AT TIMES SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE COULD BE MIXED IN WITH THE SNOW.

* TEMPERATURES...AROUND 30 EARLY THIS EVENING. LOWS IN THE MID 20S TONIGHT.

* WINDS...EAST AROUND 5 MPH EARLY THIS EVENING...BECOMING NORTHWEST 10 TO 20 MPH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

kudos top Buckeye

he called it; OV low took over and its pressure is still lower than the coastal AND 3hr pressure drops greater than coastal

double barreled never worked out - no southern stream

w/o the southern stream, we're cooked in a NINA

KA is now the Master of Snowfall Disasters and JB is just a chump, and a boneheaded one at that by not changing his forecast

maybe we get an inch bfd if we do

Link to comment
Share on other sites

kudos top Buckeye

he called it; OV low took over and its pressure is still lower than the coastal AND 3hr pressure drops greater than coastal

double barreled never worked out - no southern stream

w/o the southern stream, we're cooked in a NINA

KA is now the Master of Snowfall Disasters and JB is just a chump, and a boneheaded one at that by not changing his forecast

maybe we get an inch bfd if we do

Not sure when buckeye said this but I pointed it out 3 days ago and took a lot of heat at the time for it. Until the next day when the models starting coming around to my idea. H5 track never looked good to me since about 5 days ago. Go back to when this was 7 days out and had real potential, the H5 was supposed to track over VA. That shifted north around day 5 and it just took the models a day or 2 to sniff out how that would change the surface evolution. We cant get snow here with a weak wave along the coast and the upper level support to create lift over ohio. This was DOA

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Not sure when buckeye said this but I pointed it out 3 days ago and took a lot of heat at the time for it. Until the next day when the models starting coming around to my idea. H5 track never looked good to me since about 5 days ago. Go back to when this was 7 days out and had real potential, the H5 was supposed to track over VA. That shifted north around day 5 and it just took the models a day or 2 to sniff out how that would change the surface evolution. We cant get snow here with a weak wave along the coast and the upper level support to create lift over ohio. This was DOA

yeah, but the models, as well as the pro forecasters, all had us with a light/mod event

as with every storm this year, it was a last minute bust

that''s why I'm calling this year a bust

BWI will not get another 5" of snow for the rest of the season barring a major thaw and then a fluke

my gut says that does not happen

its ova', on to next year and the hopes the NINA wanes

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Check out what Justin Burk from abc2 news just posted on FB regarding this.

"Surface map shows Ohio storm winning the race to develop faster. It is stronger now and models didn't expect that. There is still an EAST WIND at BWI (good for moisture, bad for sleet) and transition zone likely to fill in in the next 2-4 hours. This is just the beginning. The steady and heavier stuff has been slated to reach us within a few hours of midnight. If OH Lo wins... less snow for New England, but could pull the coastal moisture into and through us."

Link to comment
Share on other sites

yeah, but the models, as well as the pro forecasters, all had us with a light/mod event

as with every storm this year, it was a last minute bust

that''s why I'm calling this year a bust

BWI will not get another 5" of snow for the rest of the season barring a major thaw and then a fluke

my gut says that does not happen

its ova', on to next year and the hopes the NINA wanes

Thanks, Ji.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Not to sound like a puss who can't hang, but after two big letdowns in a little more than two weeks, I'm not sure I can trust a forecast calling for snow at least up until the day before the event, and maybe not even then. I mean, we have been having a 100% chance of snow for what, two days now? And once again, we'll be lucky if we see any accumulation at all?

It's frustrating to be a weather weenie right now! :thumbsdown:

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Well at least the weather is CONSISTENT - WE get screwed over yet again. It smarts - but at least we weren't progged to get a lot of snow. That would REALLY hurt. No need to suicide over a couple of inches of snow.

I said this before - We need a reshuffle. If this was a game of blackjack, DCA would be 200,000 dollars in the hole. WE're losing bad. We need a reshuffle really bad. F*ck the house rules - get that damn deck reshuffled.

We need to dump this cold air, enjoy highs in the upper 60s for three weeks then get the block back - Start fresh.

This aint workin' - we're getting screwed over and PA will get all of our snow.

Gawd I'm such a disgusting weenie - last night I got so worked up over that damned radar - I wasted SEVEN HOURS over sh*t. We get nothing after all g-d what a disgusting fooking weenie I am geeze.

I need a new goddamn hobby. N VA sucks huge goat balls and this winter is a pile of steaming sh*t. I hate this winter. I want spring already - This just sucks. You know it's real bad when you can't even get a couple damn inches of snow in DC. F*CK F*CK F*CK!!!!!!!!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Every darn storm is a let down here. Can i be banned for the rest of the winter please so I don't have to deal with this? I'm having a Ji moment at this point. I can't take it anymore, my love of the weather is being overridden by failures on models time after time after time. Get me out of here, Ian, Randy, somebody.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...