stormtracker Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 lol Look right around DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 lol Look right around DC looks like it's calibrated right at least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 18Z NAM is drying up too oh the humanity I call BUST on this winter I don;t need to wait until 1/16 to hopefully get 5" its ova' http://www.nco.ncep....am_pcp_012l.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RickinBaltimore Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 lol Look right around DC CT go boom! And yay for no donut hole around Baltimore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I said when the "Great Snow Hole of 10/11 Winter" showed up on the GFS the other day it was a red flag, and so it was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 based on the bend of the isobars, is this where the coastal trough is or am I reading it wrong? for the most part correct, but the moisture convergence and lift is going to be north of the trough, once you get south of the trough it shuts off so we should be getting snow now. By the time that energy out west gets in here....that is mostly north of us. Also the western energy has definitely taken a turn NE instead of east. I thought we still had a shot when that was moving east earlier today but...you can clearly see its going north of this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ender Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Not sure how well the HRRR verifies with Winter Weather, but its one that hasn't been brought up yet... and its looking very grim right now. This is snowfall (in inches) thru 8Z tomorrow: It's initialized, in part, off radar observations. So, basically a little bit of nowcasting thrown in the mix. It's that nowcasting thing that's getting me a bit concerned. Just take a look at the HRRR's trend today: 13Z Run: 15Z Run: 17Z Run: We need to start to see precip blossoming on radar across central VA fairly soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 The spoke moving through western WV and far eastern KY will be the catalyst for the more extensive and heavier precip in our area right? that will be responsible for the heavier precip for Philly northeastward yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
onel0126 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Drizzle in La Plata now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I usually make fun of the early to bail but the signs are not great. I really really hope I am 100 percent wrong, but I also am not going to stick my head in the sand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Is that suppose to be 6pm? Why do I highly doubt that map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ger Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 That damn NAM fooled me again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 ENDER, thanks for trying but the writing's on the wall. Just pull the plug on this thang and "ender'" already Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 \ But nothing was supposed to happen now anyway. I don't get it. its not the fact that its not snowing that is bothering me at all. Its signs that when the CCB band does develop it will be north and east of where the models had it. Not by a lot, but we did not have much room at all, we were barely in the back edge to begin with. BTW does this sound familiar at all??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Is that suppose to be 6pm? Why do I highly doubt that map? oops - edit... it's 00z, so 8pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I usually make fun of the early to bail but the signs are not great. I'm hanging on until the bitter end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shadowzone Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Is that suppose to be 6pm? Why do I highly doubt that map? Because it fills in the VA snow hole? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 So now that so many are saying this is a bust, what the hell is wrong with the NAM? Can't nail a forecast within 24hrs? That's not good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 the OV slp is at 1014 and the coastal, if you want to call it that, is stuck at 1016mb. The only chance of precip we get is when the western energy comes through, a clipper at best. If it looks and smells like a pig, its a pig especially when there have been pigs in the neighborhood all winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheesyPoofs Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 oops - edit... it's 00z, so 8pm Not to nitpick, but 0z is 7pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 oops - edit... it's 00z, so 8pm 7PM this time of year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ender Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 ENDER, thanks for trying but the writing's on the wall. Just pull the plug on this thang and "ender'" already lol, my post wasn't intended as even remotely positive. I tried that back on Saturday and quickly realized the err of my ways. Tonight is a lost cause. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I'm hanging on until the bitter end. Me too, If the coastal is off VA beach and we have no precip then I'll be ready to call it. But I think by then the precip will have filled in. Just have to be remain patient and watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 oops - edit... it's 00z, so 8pm in winter thats 7pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 oops - edit... it's 00z, so 8pm 7pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 So now that so many are saying this is a bust, what the hell is wrong with the NAM? Can't nail a forecast within 24hrs? That's not good. it, along with all the models, missed Fri night too seasonal trend/pattern no storm can buck it w/o a major thaw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Alright thanks. 6pm -7pm.............there is no way the radar will look like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 looks like it's calibrated right at least Big disappointment for NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Big disappointment for NJ. Philly weenies are about to commit mass suicide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 it, along with all the models, missed Fri night too seasonal trend/pattern no storm can buck it w/o a major thaw IF we skate through tonight with say, less than 1" the NWS is going to look foolish again to the public. I kind of feel for them. The models they rely on so heavily have been complete and utter doo doo since the start of winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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