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Jan 11-12 Model/Forecasting Discussion


Ji

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Perhaps I don't have the credentials to say this, but common sense tells me, based on a view of the current radar, there's no chance this region (Anne Arundel County) gets more than about an inch of snow.

Okay let me make this clear. If you base what's going to happen 4 hrs from now on current radar than you are going to be majorly let down. All the modeling has shown light snow and flurries until about 4 or 5. The models blossom light to moderate and even heavy snow for a couple hours literally right over top of the DC/Balt/Annapolis area. So you will be watching radar and nothing will be there and then all of sudden boom you will get your quick 1-3 inches. That's what's been modeled all along. Is there a chance it converges to our northeast? Yes. But again what I just described is what has been modeled all along. Sit back and watch the radar.

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And now for a not-so-eloquent one...

WEENIES ARE AWARE THAT MODEL-PREDICTED SNOWFALL/QPF DOESN'T START UNTIL THIS EVENING FOR MOST OF NoVA/MD, RIGHT!??

im aware but the model moves of recent should make people wonder if we'll see what was showing up yesterday etc.

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yea... if that energy was 6 hours faster we would be getting heavy snow right now. The coastal trough is coming through now. THis was when we were supposed to be getting snow before the models saw the disconnect and that the H5 energy would track too far west initially to create lift here. The trough is coming through dry basically and will become energized once it is north of us. Basically my biggest fear from 5 days ago has been realized 100%. Latest RUC develops the snow band northeast of DC. BWI gets a few hours of light snow.

based on the bend of the isobars, is this where the coastal trough is or am I reading it wrong?

post-3403-0-76807800-1294774545.png

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im aware but the model moves of recent should make people wonder if we'll see what was showing up yesterday etc.

A leak in the ship, but the ship won't potentially sink for another 18 hours... stay on board and listen to the band while the boat stays afloat (if it sinks at all), or jump into the 34F ocean water?

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A leak in the ship, but the ship won't potentially sink for another 18 hours... stay on board and listen to the band while the boat stays afloat (if it sinks at all), or jump into the 34F ocean water?

you make a great point...i love how people always call storm cancel before the storm has started....and yea... a good percentage of the time they will be right, because face it, we dont live in an area that is favorable to get big storms.... especially in this type of pattern.... just something we have to accept... but I will NEVER call storm cancel or begin to change my ideas until the sun comes out. oh boy.... we just lost power for a split second LOL

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you make a great point...i love how people always call storm cancel before the storm has started....and yea... a good percentage of the time they will be right, because face it, we dont live in an area that is favorable to get big storms.... especially in this type of pattern.... just something we have to accept... but I will NEVER call storm cancel or begin to change my ideas until the sun comes out. oh boy.... we just lost power for a split second LOL

I just had a little blink in my power as well... conspiracy?

BTW, a little protip for ya: Don't over-analyze the models.

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Thank you, MD Snow, for answering a question that I've had after YEARS of following all the various weather forums. I'm a radar junkie myself, and have frequently wondered what the heck people are seeing when snow or rain is forecasted and I see nothing on the screen. Call me ignorant, but your few sentences below have made me very satisfied.

Brenda

Okay let me make this clear. If you base what's going to happen 4 hrs from now on current radar than you are going to be majorly let down. All the modeling has shown light snow and flurries until about 4 or 5. The models blossom light to moderate and even heavy snow for a couple hours literally right over top of the DC/Balt/Annapolis area. So you will be watching radar and nothing will be there and then all of sudden boom you will get your quick 1-3 inches. That's what's been modeled all along. Is there a chance it converges to our northeast? Yes. But again what I just described is what has been modeled all along. Sit back and watch the radar.

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Perhaps I don't have the credentials to say this, but common sense tells me, based on a view of the current radar, there's no chance this region (Anne Arundel County) gets more than about an inch of snow.

I'm also getting the feeling that things aren't going to work out as well as the 12Z suite has led us to believe. I'm beginning to think my area will struggle to get more than a few 100's (.04, .05...08) for total QPF. That's okay, we can all look forward to next Tuesday's potential ice storm.

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you make a great point...i love how people always call storm cancel before the storm has started....and yea... a good percentage of the time they will be right, because face it, we dont live in an area that is favorable to get big storms.... especially in this type of pattern.... just something we have to accept... but I will NEVER call storm cancel or begin to change my ideas until the sun comes out. oh boy.... we just lost power for a split second LOL

I'd like to remain cautiously optimistic too but SEASONAL TRENDS are extremely unfavorable for us. I will look forward to whatever snow we get but we'll have to face facts that (hopefully only short term) Atlanta will be beating us in snow totals this year.

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if DC fails to get to an inch, unfortunately, a lot of residents are going to view this as a bust as bad as Dec. 26. Schools closed early and for some reason -- maybe cause of ACCUWEATHER - lots of people had in their mind for days leading up to this event it was going to snow.

I can't recall another time when so many people mentioned snow to me yesterday. When i said don't expect more than 2 to 4, many were surprised. Whats a Met suppose to do. Most forecasts were more than reasonable, such as Cap. Weather's 1 to 3, but the average yahoo doesn't have a clue how complex the set up is for us to make sure we get our inch before the storm sets up farther north.

I'm not throwing in the towel, and think we are still in the game to reach our 1 to 2 inches. But just passing on what I'm hearing.

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\

But nothing was supposed to happen now anyway. I don't get it.

we've moved from ~.25 to ~.10 or less on many models and it keeps 'trending' wrong. once the sign that development holds off till too far ne is underway it usually doesnt reverse in the short term. granted i was 95% on front end stuff so we'll see but it's not looking good. im sure we'll still get more steady stuff, hopefully enough to top 1" or i really bust.

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