Don Cherry's Jacket Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 As if we can do anything else. We can keep posting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FrederickWX Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 We'll take our trace of snow from this non-event, and we'll like it! Frankly, I'm looking forward to Spring. Another week, and average temperatures will begin to creep upwards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 We'll take our trace of snow from this non-event, and we'll like it! Trace in Frederick yes.....central Moco will be buried under the weight of an inch. I'll shovel the driveway with my leafblower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 We'll take our trace of snow from this non-event, and we'll like it! Frankly, I'm looking forward to Spring. Another week, and average temperatures will begin to creep upwards. You seem to wish for warmups whether or not we are getting a lot of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FrederickWX Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Trace in Frederick yes.....central Moco will be buried under the weight of an inch. I'll shovel the driveway with my leafblower. Be careful that you don't hurt your back. Take frequent breaks and all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2010 extreme Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 The sun is popping out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 The sun is popping out That is a good thing for your area! It will destabilize the atmoshpere and pop serious convection later this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FrederickWX Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 You seem to wish for warmups whether or not we are getting a lot of snow. Well, what else is there? I know that a few hardy folks enjoy cold and wind without the snow, but for me, the main appeal of winter is snow. Minus the snow, I would rather it was warmer so that I can do more outdoor activities in relative comfort. Last winter was fantastic, and even an average winter is fine if there is average snow. This winter has been cold, windy, and **dry** - so yeah, I would enjoy a nice warmup for a few weeks, followed by a final two or three weeks of winter fun with some actual snow before Spring hits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FrederickWX Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 That is a good thing for your area! It will destabilize the atmoshpere and pop serious convection later this afternoon. Thunderstorms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2010 extreme Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Dang, I spoke30sec too soon, now i have a nice snow shower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dcwx Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Nada in Cleveland Park, saw some flurries in Dupont earlier. Looks to me that this will develop too far North. Would appreciate some analysis of the recent low tracks vs. what has been modeled if possible. I am just looking for 3 inches; that would make me really happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Chance? not when the precip hole shows up in the same spot every storm for the last 6 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
birdsofprey02 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Nada in Cleveland Park, saw some flurries in Dupont earlier. Looks to me that this will develop too far North. Would appreciate some analysis of the recent low tracks vs. what has been modeled if possible. I am just looking for 3 inches; that would make me really happy. Thats what she said. I asked a little earlier, but what since we're not looking at bands "moving in the area" and more of convecting over the area, is it harder to define a timetable? At what point if no moisture falls in the area is the thing a bust? Say by 6pm if its not snowing yet (Baltimore metro area) then it probably won't happen at all? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lester Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Flurries in Baltimore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Thats what she said. I asked a little earlier, but what since we're not looking at bands "moving in the area" and more of convecting over the area, is it harder to define a timetable? At what point if no moisture falls in the area is the thing a bust? Say by 6pm if its not snowing yet (Baltimore metro area) then it probably won't happen at all? That a tough question to answer. Miller B transfers are really complicated events until the offshore low gets cranking then things become much more obvious from a nowcast/obs point of view. You have to closely watch radar, pressure falls, and the location of precip breaking out. It will be snowing by 6pm but the question is where, how much, and the trajectory of precip. Right when the offshore low starts becoming dominant, precip will break out and continue to reform over the same area for a while. Anyone south and west of that unknown location is going to be unhappy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 The upper level energy is beginning to approach from the west. The snow showing up on radar in the shenendoah valley is from the energy approaching from the west. If we are going to get this "explosion" of precip that many are waiting for it will be with that band as it catches whats left of the coastal inverted trough over the area. That should happen in the next 2-3 hours. My fear is that the coastal trough is too far north of us by the time that energy phases in and this explosion of precip happens just north and east of our area. We will know very soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 The upper level energy is beginning to approach from the west. The snow showing up on radar in the shenendoah valley is from the energy approaching from the west. If we are going to get this "explosion" of precip that many are waiting for it will be with that band as it catches whats left of the coastal inverted trough over the area. That should happen in the next 2-3 hours. My fear is that the coastal trough is too far north of us by the time that energy phases in and this explosion of precip happens just north and east of our area. We will know very soon. Good analysis. I just notice the precip from the west streaming in at a rapid pace. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Good analysis. I just notice the precip from the west streaming in at a rapid pace. yea... if that energy was 6 hours faster we would be getting heavy snow right now. The coastal trough is coming through now. THis was when we were supposed to be getting snow before the models saw the disconnect and that the H5 energy would track too far west initially to create lift here. The trough is coming through dry basically and will become energized once it is north of us. Basically my biggest fear from 5 days ago has been realized 100%. Latest RUC develops the snow band northeast of DC. BWI gets a few hours of light snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 JB is funny, he updated after noon to say he is running with 3-6 for DC but then hems and haws so much its obvious he doesn't really believe that anymore but just does not want to change it. Why is he so scared to flip flop that he runs with a forecast he does not even believe himself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 yea... if that energy was 6 hours faster we would be getting heavy snow right now. The coastal trough is coming through now. THis was when we were supposed to be getting snow before the models saw the disconnect and that the H5 energy would track too far west initially to create lift here. The trough is coming through dry basically and will become energized once it is north of us. Basically my biggest fear from 5 days ago has been realized 100%. Latest RUC develops the snow band northeast of DC. BWI gets a few hours of light snow. So the snow I saw for five minutes earlier was game over? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 yea... if that energy was 6 hours faster we would be getting heavy snow right now. The coastal trough is coming through now. THis was when we were supposed to be getting snow before the models saw the disconnect and that the H5 energy would track too far west initially to create lift here. The trough is coming through dry basically and will become energized once it is north of us. Basically my biggest fear from 5 days ago has been realized 100%. Latest RUC develops the snow band northeast of DC. BWI gets a few hours of light snow. Yep, that's look like how it will setup. Oh well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 yea... if that energy was 6 hours faster we would be getting heavy snow right now. The coastal trough is coming through now. THis was when we were supposed to be getting snow before the models saw the disconnect and that the H5 energy would track too far west initially to create lift here. The trough is coming through dry basically and will become energized once it is north of us. Basically my biggest fear from 5 days ago has been realized 100%. Latest RUC develops the snow band northeast of DC. BWI gets a few hours of light snow. Nice analysis. Hold on long enough for an inch here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
birdsofprey02 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Light Snow large flakes Ft. Meade, Md corner of 295 and 32. 2:20pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 JB is funny, he updated after noon to say he is running with 3-6 for DC but then hems and haws so much its obvious he doesn't really believe that anymore but just does not want to change it. Why is he so scared to flip flop that he runs with a forecast he does not even believe himself. his forecasts for our area AGAIN have been absolutely horrendous and worse than any other national forecaster I have seen I don;t care about any other place, I'm talking DCA/BWI...absolute garbage and crap and he ought to just fess up to how bad he has been EDIT: to make a post at 12:15 today and neither see nor admit to the imminent bust just adds blatant stupidity on top of incompetence Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 The weenie model analysis going on right now is entertaining at best. Meanwhile, the rest of us are looking out our windows and watching the radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Light Snow large flakes Ft. Meade, Md corner of 295 and 32. 2:20pm http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php?/topic/8486-january-11-12-storm-obsdiscussion/page__st__120 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 The weenie model analysis going on right now is entertaining at best. Meanwhile, the rest of us are looking out our windows and watching the radar. looking good on both counts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
birdsofprey02 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 looking good on both counts sarcasm or really mean it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardmeiser Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 The weenie model analysis going on right now is entertaining at best. Meanwhile, the rest of us are looking out our windows and watching the radar. LOL. You are right and its absolutely hilarious! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
das Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Chance? Most eloquent response of the day. While atmospheric physics and and the forcing mechanisms acting on it are increasingly knowable and computational power is increasingly able to crunch increasingly complex model data at increasingly higher resolutions, the chaotic fluid dynamics resident in our atmosphere will add the envigorating element of chance to our jobs (and hobby) for a long time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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