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Jan 11-12 Model/Forecasting Discussion


Ji

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The zones were changed again... bascially if you southwest of BAL you are getting around an inch now

Well, as of this minute, we are not seeing any indication that it would be otherwise. Still, too early to pull the plug. This morning we had 2-4 projected, now an inch. Does it really matter? We'll get what we get. I think we'll know in about 3 hours. The mid west low is certainly pumping snow far south into KY and coming right across WV. Maybe this will enhance the lift and precip will break out. Nothing to advect in from the south, sorry to say as it looks right now.

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Well, as of this minute, we are not seeing any indication that it would be otherwise. Still, too early to pull the plug. This morning we had 2-4 projected, now an inch. Does it really matter? We'll get what we get. I think we'll know in about 3 hours. The mid west low is certainly pumping snow far south into KY and coming right across WV. Maybe this will enhance the lift and precip will break out. Nothing to advect in from the south, sorry to say as it looks right now.

It was never SUPPOSED to advect in from the south.

The low is still way down south of Hatteras - things are going exactly as forecast this morning. People need to chillax.

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I don't know why, but I have more optimism right now that this storm will overperform farther S & W than what the models show. Looking at radar, H5, and surface pressures, I just seems that it won't take much for our area to hit the high end of the forecast.

If the coastal deepens just a little faster and farther west than modeled could pop some nice dynamics for at least a couple of hours of moderate snow. I don't care how powerful a computer is, trying to nail a miller b transfer is an impossible calculation (unfortunately we usually end up on the wrong side of the calculation).

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I wanted to believe it was just bad luck but it is obvious now that there is something inherently stuck in this pattern that makes it impossible for us to get significant snow here. Most obvious is that we are stuck between the 2 jets and phasing is not happening until east of us.

Chance?

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I don't know why, but I have more optimism right now that this storm will overperform farther S & W than what the models show. Looking at radar, H5, and surface pressures, I just seems that it won't take much for our area to hit the high end of the forecast.

If the coastal deepens just a little faster and farther west than modeled could pop some nice dynamics for at least a couple of hours of moderate snow. I don't care how powerful a computer is, trying to nail a miller b transfer is an impossible calculation (unfortunately we usually end up on the wrong side of the calculation).

Agreed. Everyone needs to relax. Let the storm play out.

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