Symblized Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 12z NAM init too weak and SSE with the coastal. MODEL INITIALIZATION ERRORS ARE INDICATED UNDER THE RELEVANT ...SYSTEM HEADING. ..ERN CONUS/WRN ATLC EVOLUTION TUE ONWARD WITH THE WAVE OFF THE SERN COAST THE NAM SFC ANALYSIS IS ABOUT 2 MB WEAKER THAN OBSERVED... AND MAY ALSO BE A LITTLE SSE OF THE OBSERVED POSN. DEPENDING ON THE FCST HR THE NAM MID LVL SYSTEM IS IN THE MIDDLE OR SLOWER HALF OF THE GUIDANCE SPREAD. THE SFC LOW ALONG THE EAST COAST IS GENERALLY IN THE WRN THIRD OF THE ENVELOPE. FROM TUE INTO WED THE PAST 24 HRS OF NAM RUNS SHOW GRADUALLY FASTER TREND WITH LEADING MID LVL HGT FALLS PROGRESSING FROM THE MID MS VLY INTO THE MID ATLC/NEW ENGLAND. THIS TREND DIMINISHES BY F36 LATE WED. THE NAM COMPARES WELL TO OTHER WELL CLUSTERED GUIDANCE WITH WEAKENING SFC LOW PRESSURE TO THE W OF THE APLCHNS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yorkpa25 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 12z NAM had intialization errors, hpc going more with westerly track similar to 6z. NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 11, 2011 Author Share Posted January 11, 2011 12z NAM had intialization errors, hpc going more with westerly track similar to 6z. NAM thank God..i get my .36 back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 12z NAM had intialization errors, hpc going more with westerly track similar to 6z. NAM Where do they say that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Call me crazy but dc north/northeast will get 5-7 " You are crazy. So is today's 6z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonjon Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Doesn't the snow thing get old out there in Davis? I mean...can't you let us have some? No and No. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Well, if the 12z runs were initialized too far east, that's good to hear Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Swiscaster Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Snowing here in SE DC. Large flakes, widely spaced. So we have a foul tip at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardmeiser Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Yeah i think the HPC already said it initialized 40 miles to far east. 12 NAM also had issues: 12Z NAM EVALUATION MODEL INITIALIZATION ERRORS ARE INDICATED UNDER THE RELEVANT ...SYSTEM HEADING. ..ERN CONUS/WRN ATLC EVOLUTION TUE ONWARD WITH THE WAVE OFF THE SERN COAST THE NAM SFC ANALYSIS IS ABOUT 2 MB WEAKER THAN OBSERVED... AND MAY ALSO BE A LITTLE SSE OF THE OBSERVED POSN. DEPENDING ON THE FCST HR THE NAM MID LVL SYSTEM IS IN THE MIDDLE OR SLOWER HALF OF THE GUIDANCE SPREAD. THE SFC LOW ALONG THE EAST COAST IS GENERALLY IN THE WRN THIRD OF THE ENVELOPE. FROM TUE INTO WED THE PAST 24 HRS OF NAM RUNS SHOW GRADUALLY FASTER TREND WITH LEADING MID LVL HGT FALLS PROGRESSING FROM THE MID MS VLY INTO THE MID ATLC/NEW ENGLAND. THIS TREND DIMINISHES BY F36 LATE WED. THE NAM COMPARES WELL TO OTHER WELL CLUSTERED GUIDANCE WITH WEAKENING SFC LOW PRESSURE TO THE W OF THE APLCHNS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yorkpa25 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 12zGFS had initial errors to, regarding the 500, to flat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 IDEA: LET'S STOP THE SEMANTICS AND MOVE INTO THE NOWCAST/WAIT-AND-SEE PHASE and stop your weenie bickering about the NAM/GFS forecasts, the subtle differences and QPF changes. It's really been exhausted. agreed 5 ppd is going to start if it keeps up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 jonjon, Is Davis located south of Oakland off of Rt 219? I imagine that is prime snow territory out that way. What have you had so far this year? 70-80 inches? No and No. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowJoe Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Oakland, Davis, Terra Alta....those are some prime spots. I used to have some family out there. Terra Alta specifically would get a good amount of snow that pretty much went unreported. Close enough to get lake effect snows as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 radar starting to pick up a little bit to our south...right on time weenies! - http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=NCR&rid=LWX&loop=yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 pressure is down to 1016 off the coast of NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Guys, we're in watch and wait time. I'm kinda excited..its only gonna be 1 to 2 inches..but its snow. That's what most of us are here for now. Let's stop whining and just enjoy what we get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yorkpa25 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 That's where it was modeled to be, no biggie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 That's where it was modeled to be, no biggie What evidence do you have the HPC threw out the 12Z NAM in favor of the 06Z NAM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 The WWA has been downgraded to 2-4"...........damn it. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 1215 PM EST TUE JAN 11 2011 MDZ005>007-010-011-014-120115- /O.CON.KLWX.WW.Y.0003.110111T2100Z-110112T1100Z/ CARROLL-NORTHERN BALTIMORE-HARFORD-HOWARD-SOUTHERN BALTIMORE- ANNE ARUNDEL- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WESTMINSTER...COLUMBIA...BALTIMORE... ANNAPOLIS 1215 PM EST TUE JAN 11 2011 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY. * PRECIPITATION TYPE...SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS...2 TO 4 INCHES. * TIMING...AFTER SOME FLURRIES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...SNOW WILL BEGIN BETWEEN 4 PM AND 6 PM THIS AFTERNOON...THEN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT BEFORE ENDING BETWEEN 4 AM AND 6 AM. THE SNOW WILL BE HEAVIEST BETWEEN 8 PM THIS EVENING AND 3 AM TONIGHT. * TEMPERATURES...TEMPERATURES AROUND 30 THROUGH SUNSET. LOWS IN THE MID 20S TONIGHT. * WINDS...NORTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH TODAY...BECOMING NORTHWEST 10 TO 20 MPH TUESDAY NIGHT. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Guys, we're in watch and wait time. I'm kinda excited..its only gonna be 1 to 2 inches..but its snow. That's what most of us are here for now. Let's stop whining and just enjoy what we get. Totally agree. Looks like SOME accumulating snow is a lock for us. 12/26 redux not likely. Light flurries out by IAD since around noon. Radar looks fine too. Won't take too much of change in the evolution to give us a modest upside surprise either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 The WWA has been downgraded to 2-4"...........damn it. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 1215 PM EST TUE JAN 11 2011 MDZ005>007-010-011-014-120115- /O.CON.KLWX.WW.Y.0003.110111T2100Z-110112T1100Z/ CARROLL-NORTHERN BALTIMORE-HARFORD-HOWARD-SOUTHERN BALTIMORE- ANNE ARUNDEL- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WESTMINSTER...COLUMBIA...BALTIMORE... ANNAPOLIS 1215 PM EST TUE JAN 11 2011 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY. * PRECIPITATION TYPE...SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS...2 TO 4 INCHES. * TIMING...AFTER SOME FLURRIES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...SNOW WILL BEGIN BETWEEN 4 PM AND 6 PM THIS AFTERNOON...THEN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT BEFORE ENDING BETWEEN 4 AM AND 6 AM. THE SNOW WILL BE HEAVIEST BETWEEN 8 PM THIS EVENING AND 3 AM TONIGHT. * TEMPERATURES...TEMPERATURES AROUND 30 THROUGH SUNSET. LOWS IN THE MID 20S TONIGHT. * WINDS...NORTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH TODAY...BECOMING NORTHWEST 10 TO 20 MPH TUESDAY NIGHT. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING. THe WWA has been downgraded? Where? What's the advisory below a WWA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 There were some 35dbz returns down in Charles / St. Mary's counties. Sleet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marylandwx Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I've been a lurker on Eastern/American since '05 and this might be the lowest I have ever seen morale around here. Cant blame anyone after last winter. IT must have left a deeper scar than many of us originally thought. Nevertheless, we should all take this storm for what its worth and enjoy seeing the flakes fall. Figured id post some obs. Snowing here now in Calvert County with some moderately sized flakes, 29 degrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 THe WWA has been downgraded? Where? What's the advisory below a WWA? Downgraded from 3-5" to 2-4". It's more realistic, but it kills some weenie hopes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 a little purple over northern md.. crushed! http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/hiresw/12/images/hiresw_p12_018l.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 so close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 actually the arw sim isnt bad looking compared to radar http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/hiresw/12/model_m.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 MOS numbers on EUro looks low for 1st 12 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Nice sized flakes falling now by IAD. They're 10 feet apart but they are at least big. lol My office is right by LWX. Everytime I drive by, I envision someone at a desk writing the morning updated AFD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Euro's gonna come in with lowers numbers .17" for 6 hrs ending 1AM at BWI went from .17 to .08 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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