tcutter Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 does this give you guys any hope......rainshadow recently posted this update............ For those of you out on the ledge about the storm "going east!" I'd suggest reading Rainshadow's (Tony from NWS-Mt. Holly) recent post, above, as well as their 7:55 am update: .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... -- Changed Discussion --THROUGH THE 12Z OBS, A EURO AND CAN GGEM COMBO IS WORKING THE BEST WITH THE DEVELOPING SFC LOW, TUCKED IN CLOSER TO THE COAST THAN THE OTHER MODELS. AT 500MB ITS ABOUT THE SAME, NOT MUCH OF A DIFFERENCE BUT THE FORMER IS CLOSEST. ALL THE MODELS ARE HANDLING THE MIDWESTERN CLOSED LOW EQUALLY AND QUITE WELL. LAST WALLOPS IS ALREADY UP TO +1C AT 850MB, ALL OF THE MODELS WERE TOO COLD WITH THEIR FCST 850MB TEMPS, WITH THE GFS THE CLOSEST. THIS ADDS THE POSSIBILITY OF MORE NON SNOW PTYPE ISSUES ALONG OUR COAST. NO CHANGES FOR NOW WILL HAVE THE FIRST 24HRS IN ON BOTH MODELS FOR THE 11 AM UPDATE. IT WOULD APPEAR AS THOUGH THE WARM LAYER SEEN ON THE 0000 UTC KGSO AND KMHX SOUNDINGS HAS SLIPPED NORTH INTO SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND THE SOUTHERNMOST DELMARVA PENINSULA. BASED ON THIS...THE POTENTIAL SLEET WAS INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN MARYLAND AND SOUTHERN DELAWARE AS THE PRECIPITATION GETS STARTED. PUTTING THE REMAINING PIECES OF THE PUZZLE TOGETHER THIS MORNING... THE REMAINDER OF THE DELAWARE VALLEY CURRENTLY IN THE WATCH WILL BE UPGRADED TO WINTER STORM WARNING...AS WILL NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY AND COASTAL OCEAN COUNTY NEW JERSEY. THE EASTERN MARYLAND COUNTIES CURRENTLY IN THE WATCH WILL BE CONVERTED TO WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES. EASTERN SUSSEX COUNTY DELAWARE...AS WELL AS COASTAL SECTIONS OF CAPE MAY AND ATLANTIC COUNTIES WILL BE SWITCHED TO WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES...AS WILL THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND SOUTHERN POCONOS. THE INGREDIENTS FOR A SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER EVENT ARE COMING TOGETHER THIS MORNING. A STRONG LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC EXTENDS FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS TO THE NORTH/SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER. THE SOUTHERN JET STREAK IS ABOUT 3 TO 6 HOURS AHEAD OF THE NORTHERN JET STREAK LOCATED OVER MISSOURI. ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE...THERE ARE SIGNS THAT A SURFACE LOW IS TRYING TO ORGANIZE OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. THIS LOOKS TO THE THE SYSTEM THAT WILL DEEPEN RAPIDLY ONCE IT GETS TO OUR LATITUDE AND FURTHER NORTHEAST. FOR THE MOST PART...IT WOULD APPEAR AS THOUGH THE PHASING OF THE TWO SHORT WAVES WILL OCCUR JUST AS IT REACHES OUR LATITUDE. THIS PUTS THE FORECAST AREA IS A TRANSITION ZONE...AS SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE MOISTURE...AND NORTHEAST AREAS JUST GETTING INTO THE BEST LIFT AND DYNAMIC COOLING AS THE SYSTEM STARTS TO PULL OUT WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE DRY AIRMASS IN PLACES SHOULD SLOW THE NORTHEAST PROGRESSION OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON. WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING JUST EXITING...SOME PORTIONS OF THE AREAS (PARTICULARLY NORTHEAST) MAY EVEN SEE SOME SUNSHINE EARLY. AFTER THIS...THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE NORTHERN SHORT WAVE SHOULD MOISTENING THE COLUMN DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE STEADIER PRECIPITATION SHOULD GET INTO DELAWARE AND EASTERN MARYLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON...REACHING A KPHL-KACY LINE BY ABOUT 600 PM. STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOULD ALLOW THE SNOW TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER IT STARTS. IT APPEARS AS THOUGH 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW COULD FALL ACROSS EASTERN MARYLAND AND PORTIONS OF DELAWARE BEFORE DARK. THE AIRMASS HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH IN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...SO HIGHS TODAY SHOULD BE CLOSE TO WHERE THEY HAVE BEEN THE LAST 2 DAYS. THE EXCEPTION HERE IS ALONG THE COAST. AS THE SURFACE HIGH FINALLY GETS OFFSHORE THIS MORNING...THE RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL TURN THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW ONSHORE. WITH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AROUND 40...AND AIR TEMPERATURES OVER THE WATERS THIS MORNING IN THE LOWER 30S...HIGHS ALONG THE COAST SHOULD GET ABOVE FREEZING. THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR A PRECIPITATION TYPE PROBLEM. AS THE PRECIPITATION STARTS...EVAPORATIVE COOLING SHOULD ALLOW THE PRECIPITATION TO START AS SNOW...BUT ONCE THIS IS USED UP...THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS BACK ABOVE FREEZING. THIS SHOULD CHANGE THE PRECIPITATION ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST TO RAIN.-- End Changed Discussion -- http://forecast.weat...=1&highlight=on One more point: I would imagine that if mixing/rain are issues along the immediate Jersey Shore, then the same may be true for at least the eastern parts of LI. This is not a forecast, just an observation that things often work out that way... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yorkpa25 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Your right, we get what we get, that's fine. As far as model watching, that is pointless now if you ask me as you have already said the event will be underway in few hours, no need for models. Just stating what I believe gfs will show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
birdsofprey02 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Are you trying to hand out the cyanide pills to the weenies? The snow will develop over us, not advect in, as you well know. Given that we can't watch bands move in on the radar, rather we just seem them develop over (the area, wherever it may be), what time table does everyone predict (suggest)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Just tired of reading some of the people who are using this thread as a therapy session....I'm sure at some point someone will say that daddy touched me in my private space and that's why they are so negative. Passions run deep with this hobby. People on the outside would thing we're all nutcases..and to a minor extent, we are. I've moved into acceptance stage..I just want to get this over with and I'll enjoy whatever we get along the way. THere will be other storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 my 5 best friends on the board 1. Ian 2. Leesburg 3. Randy 4. PSUhoffman 5. Phineas Are they the 5 best friends anyone could have? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowJoe Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 You mean the models don't determine the weather? That's crazy talk! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Your right, we get what we get, that's fine. As far as model watching, that is pointless now if you ask me as you have already said the event will be underway in few hours, no need for models. Just stating what I believe gfs will show. what the gfs shows... http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/12zgfs850mbTSLPp06_county018.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 11, 2011 Author Share Posted January 11, 2011 Just loop this http://models.americ...php?output=refl that looks good right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Just for the heck of it does the placement of SLP match up to current obs on the 12z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Just loop this http://models.americ...php?output=refl That doesn't look that bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 does this give you guys any hope......rainshadow recently posted this update............ 99% of us arent that far north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Decent chance that after today DCA will be above normal snowfall on the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 that looks good right? Looks better then most of the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 hopefully we can split the nam and gfs but the gfs has been pretty consistent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tcutter Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 99% of us arent that far north oh...sorry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 hopefully we can split the nam and gfs but the gfs has been pretty consistent I guess we will take our 1-3"... but I at least want to see an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
real Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 GFS basically stays constant for us. But interesting that New York isn't going to get any great snowstorm from that... The city looks barely into .50. Nam shows over 1.0.. Will be interesting what unfolds up there. I read somewhere some mets up there were t hrowing out 12 to 20 inch forecats for the city up there this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Passions run deep with this hobby. People on the outside would thing we're all nutcases..and to a minor extent, we are. I've moved into acceptance stage..I just want to get this over with and I'll enjoy whatever we get along the way. THere will be other storms. I agree...I like all snow and always will..good luck Randy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Based on current obs I would have to lean toward a blend of the 12z NAM/GFS with maybe a little more on the GFS. Last call - south and west of DC - dusting to 1" DC to Baltimore points northwest and southeast - 1-2 Balt Northwest/North/Northeast - 2-4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bjohnson102184 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Sleet and Rain mix in RIC, just light stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 11, 2011 Author Share Posted January 11, 2011 We will have a HECS again...where the models show 20-25 inches of snow. I dont feel that bad about this storm because the models never gave us anything good to begin with. The Dec 26 was much worse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ovechkin Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Decent chance that after today DCA will be above normal snowfall on the year. That may wind up being true- but it would have been nicer to get there with a 5 inch storm rather than with 8 dustings. Also, hitting normal snowfall when the entire 2/3 of the country is 5 times avg doesn't make one feel so good. It's like getting a 70 on a test when the rest of the class got a 95 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Sleet and Rain mix in RIC, just light stuff bad for you, encouraging for us I'm sorry to say Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 That may wind up being true- but it would have been nicer to get there with a 5 inch storm rather than with 8 dustings. Also, hitting normal snowfall when the entire 2/3 of the country is 5 times avg doesn't make one feel so good. It's like getting a 70 on a test when the rest of the class got a 95 link? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Don Cherry's Jacket Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Based on the weenie radar, is this thing going further OTS than even the GTS forecast? Unreal. At this point no snow at all is the perfect middle finger end to this fiasco. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Based on the weenie radar, is this thing going further OTS than even the GTS forecast? Unreal. At this point no snow at all is the perfect middle finger end to this fiasco. Weenie suicides right on cue! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Based on the weenie radar, is this thing going further OTS than even the GTS forecast? Unreal. At this point no snow at all is the perfect middle finger end to this fiasco. If we get screwed, I want NJ/PHL/NYC to get screwed as well! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Don Cherry's Jacket Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 If we get screwed, I want NJ/PHL/NYC to get screwed as well! I endorse this solution as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ovechkin Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 link? Well, OK, a little hyperbole I guess. but ATL, CLT, RIC, ORF, PHL, EWR, ILG, NYC, BOS are all above/well above avg. It's really only DCA IAD and BWI that aren't Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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