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Jan 11-12 Model/Forecasting Discussion


Ji

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not really, looking at the sim radar and h7 vv's compared to 6z its not going to look nearly as good next frame. Snow is just about over at DCA at 24 hours. I really doubt the next frame looks anything like it did at 6z.

yep...not sure it matters, but the low may be a few mb deeper at 18z vs the 6 hour projection, based on 13z obs

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I don't see a flake :unsure:

birds are going crazy fwiw, eating the buds of the trees they go after before it snows

yes, it does happen, for whatever reason, they eat the buds off these trees every time before it snows, but that ain't saying how much we're gonna get

Interesting. I live in Federal Hill and I sometimes see seagulls and other birds flocking around my neighborhood before a snow, I guess looking for a place to hide from it.

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what are you talking about, the NAM just took away the storm here...now is 1-3 like the GFS.

rather than screaming it took it away it took it away why not look at why it took it away

post-3403-0-71353000-1294755267.png

more vorticity in ohio, so less consolidated overall, and slightly more separation.... everything I said was based on an IF.... now I dont really buy it,, but if we see a big band of snow in N OH, Eastern IN at 1 PM today like the sim radar shows (and makes sense with that vorticity signature) then I will start to believe it.... oh but guess what... by then is the next model run and everybody will be jumping on what it says... its METEOROLOGY, not MODELOLOGY.

I am using the modeling to illustrate a point, as a tool, not to make an actual forecast... IMO this reason is why so many short range forecasts are blown.

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CT Blizz is the only weenie I know who will post about a storm threat 2,000 times and then zonk out right as the the snow starts and miss it all. His bedtime is 8:45 and that is that.

Snow cover weenies are the worst

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The upper level energy just isnt going to catch up in time for us. The inverted trough is over us right now...but the upper level support for lift is still back in the OH valley. Just too much separation. By the time that gets close enough to enhance lift the whole thing is northeast of us. The H5 was just 6 hours too slow for this to work here.

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The upper level energy just isnt going to catch up in time for us. The inverted trough is over us right now...but the upper level support for lift is still back in the OH valley. Just too much separation. By the time that gets close enough to enhance lift the whole thing is northeast of us. The H5 was just 6 hours too slow for this to work here.

Story of our winter. Near-misses and almosts.

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This thread is for TODAY/TOMORROW. Please stop posting/replying threats for next week... we already have a thread for that (especially directed at Ji, who STARTED that thread!).

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I had faith that the 12z NAM would fall back in line, and it did :D Still liking my snow amounts for NoVA/MD/Delmarva for now.

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