WxUSAF Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 It seems LWX bumped up totals in the zones, on the west shore of the Bay. Howard, PG, Carroll, Charles, St. Mary's, and Anne Arundel counties now read 3-5". Might have bumped up totals in VA also, not sure what they read before though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 We need an obs thread. Yes we should keep one seperate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 If we can get 4-6 inches out of this, we'll be just about exactly where we should be at this point in January for the season, going by averages. Maybe even ahead. Easy to forget that after last year. It's got nothing to do with "normal", and everything to do with the fact that almost everyone South and North of us has cashed in and we have gotten shafted. I can toooootally accept an average or below average winter - low-snow winters happen around here more often than not. But when storms keeping bending around us and skipping over us and NC and NJ/NY/NE keep getting buried, it hurts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 If we can get 4-6 inches out of this, we'll be just about exactly where we should be at this point in January for the season, going by averages. Maybe even ahead. Easy to forget that after last year. This is true overall. However, I don't think it's so much everyone comparing to last year. While 4-6" would equal or exceed our January average in DC, keep in mind that the variance around that mean is pretty large. Which perhaps renders the average somewhat...errr..."mean"ingless? (Pun slightly intended there!) Well, not meaningless of course, but the point is the average includes a lot of meager monthly amounts and the occasional big one over the years. So when it does snow here, it tends to come in bigger storms. But yes, 4-6" right now would seem like a veritable miracle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 nam looks good through 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 It's got nothing to do with "normal", and everything to do with the fact that almost everyone South and North of us has cashed in and we have gotten shafted. I can toooootally accept an average or below average winter - low-snow winters happen around here more often than not. But when storms keeping bending around us and skipping over us and NC and NJ/NY/NE keep getting buried, it hurts. I seem to recall a lot of tearing of hair and gnashing of teeth because the mid-Atlantic got pounded by almost every storm last year. Cries of "unfair" because New England got shafted as the systems hit the mid-Atlantic and slid east. All I could do is roll my eyes and think, "well, every other winter you guys get hammered, and NYC recently had 3 straight 40"+ seasons or something, so whatever." But yes, even New England and NYC cashed in later in the season, with the end of Feb. storm, that bypassed us. This year, yes, it's aggravating to see everywhere south of us get lots of snow, and not too far north of us get even more, while we're in the relative desert even though it's been favorable and cold so far. Philly is really in a good position, they got in on the big winter last year...and now they scored pretty well Dec. 26, and look to score again with the current system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Not as good though as 06z... low is a tad east compared to 06z, not as much precip either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 SREF are bad, shifted .25 east to the bay Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Not as good though as 06z... low is a tad east compared to 06z, not as much precip either Yeah but it's also a tad south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 yeah, definitely not as good as 6Z dang Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Some Flurries Here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 SREF are bad, shifted .25 east to the bay saw that too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 nam looks good through 12 not really, looking at the sim radar and h7 vv's compared to 6z its not going to look nearly as good next frame. Snow is just about over at DCA at 24 hours. I really doubt the next frame looks anything like it did at 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Yeah but it's also a tad south. south doesn't matter much, the precip gradient is taking on an almost north/south back edge with this. If the low is east its another 12/26 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 not really, looking at the sim radar and h7 vv's compared to 6z its not going to look nearly as good next frame. Snow is just about over at DCA at 24 hours. I really doubt the next frame looks anything like it did at 6z. agree sim/rad much weaker returns this run at 12Z vs. 18Z at 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 probably won't get >,.25 at BWI next panel after 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I'm done looking at the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 The NAM threw up on itself earlier... It happens after too much drinking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vinylfreak89 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 was not honestly all that surprised to see the changes to the NAM this morning. 2 things helping us out.... the backside vorticity with the actual ULL over SD is coming in stronger than even the 6z nam forecast. this is helping to dig the trough and more importantly speed it up so that piece of energy can rotate through and phase in. the second thing to watch is this feature. by 18Z today the models seem to agree on separating a piece of the northern shortwave to take it up thru PA...if this does NOT happen... look out... we will get the kind of storm the NAM is showing for NYC... the less of a degree this happens the better we will do. right about now, I think the 6z NAM which shows slight separation is almost the best we can help for. I really dont think there will be no separation but very minimal. the reason this vorticity impulse causes a problem is because it delays a full phase early on, so you get the storm trying to bomb but the dynamics to support it aren't really there til it gets to the NJ coast... thats when the energy transfer occurs likely due to the more favorable gult stream environment (in other words where the longwave trough begins to "feel" the gulf stream). This stupid packet of vorticity is also what drags the 850/700/500 lows to our north.... if you took it out of the equation and entirely, there would be no energy transfer, a single 700/850/500 low would stay consolidated and bowl east right across Washington DC. Note there's no way to save the Shenendoah Valley from a dry slot in this case... by nature as the coastal develops and the CCB starts, someone is going to get fringed. Things are just already too late for them. If the timing works perfefctly, DC might have a chance but moreso up toward baltimore and NE The reason the GFS is not coming around to this is because these are tiny mesoscale features far beyond its grid resolution. its even difficult to see on the NAM but peeking at last nights ARW WRF gave me an idea where to look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 was not honestly all that surprised to see the changes to the NAM this morning. 2 things helping us out.... the backside vorticity with the actual ULL over SD is coming in stronger than even the 6z nam forecast. this is helping to dig the trough and more importantly speed it up so that piece of energy can rotate through and phase in. the second thing to watch is this feature. by 18Z today the models seem to agree on separating a piece of the northern shortwave to take it up thru PA...if this does NOT happen... look out... we will get the kind of storm the NAM is showing for NYC... the less of a degree this happens the better we will do. right about now, I think the 6z NAM which shows slight separation is almost the best we can help for. I really dont think there will be no separation but very minimal. the reason this vorticity impulse causes a problem is because it delays a full phase early on, so you get the storm trying to bomb but the dynamics to support it aren't really there til it gets to the NJ coast... thats when the energy transfer occurs likely due to the more favorable gult stream environment (in other words where the longwave trough begins to "feel" the gulf stream). This stupid packet of vorticity is also what drags the 850/700/500 lows to our north.... if you took it out of the equation and entirely, there would be no energy transfer, a single 700/850/500 low would stay consolidated and bowl east right across Washington DC. Note there's no way to save the Shenendoah Valley from a dry slot in this case... by nature as the coastal develops and the CCB starts, someone is going to get fringed. Things are just already too late for them. If the timing works perfefctly, DC might have a chance but moreso up toward baltimore and NE The reason the GFS is not coming around to this is because these are tiny mesoscale features far beyond its grid resolution. its even difficult to see on the NAM but peeking at last nights ARW WRF gave me an idea where to look. what are you talking about, the NAM just took away the storm here...now is 1-3 like the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Probably more realistic this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Total precip for the LWX area virtually identical on the 12Z NAM and 00Z WRF ARW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Doesn't really look like NAM's track changed it just came in drier with less dynamics this run than last. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Total precip for the LWX area virtually identical on the 12Z NAM and 00Z WRF ARW. maybe I'll get my 3 or 4" for once Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 11, 2011 Author Share Posted January 11, 2011 we always get that one model run that gives us hope..it hurts when it happens a few hours before the event starts:( Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Doesn't really look like NAM's track changed it just came in drier with less dynamics this run than last. yeah, and that leaves a little hope we get some better qpf numbers, though probably not likely at this late hour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Doesn't really look like NAM's track changed it just came in drier with less dynamics this run than last. Yeah I did notice that, that would involve a stronger primary maybe. Dynamics are for nowcasting, so lets see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 we always get that one model run that gives us hope..it hurts when it happens a few hours before the event starts:( nowcast time anyway NAM says we don;t get shut out, and for that, I'm happy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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