real Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Or, you could just take the NAM and GFS and split the difference. Under that scenerio, forecasts should be raised. maybe not quite to WSW criteria for DC, but perhaps for Baltimore. I imagine everyone will wait to see what 12 z runs show. But after down playing the storm for much of yesterday, it's going to take a lot of convince people (again) this storm will be anything more than a dusting. Also, don't forget that many mets still feel burned by the last minute model changes from the 12/26 storm. But you do have a point -- I remember Wes saying he wishes during that event he would have listened to the NAM more. So ...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Is anyone here a RUC expert? I thought it was the best very short range model, but it looks dry as a bone for most of MA. http://www.nco.ncep....c/hr4/fpc.shtml I don't really use or know it, so I welcome (really welcome!) someone to explain what I'm looking at wrong, or why it's out to lunch. I'm in no way an ruc expert but I remember on the 12/26 storm the ruc had the heavy banding entering the balt/wash area at about hrs 7-11. That never came close to fruition. On Friday night it showed some niche bands moving through and that never happened either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Swiscaster Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 06z GFS has the SFC low too far east... 06z NAM is right on (as the NAM has been) with the low placement. Does this mean the QPF is more legit? We'll see... Can you see the future or something? How do you know the NAM is "right" when the storm hasn't happened yet? Please explain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Stuff firing near C-ville Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Can you see the future or something? How do you know the NAM is "right" when the storm hasn't happened yet? Please explain. I got the impression he was talking at initialization. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/data/cobb_namm/nam_kdca.dat http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/data/cobb_namm/nam_kiad.dat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 http://www.meteor.ia...mm/nam_kdca.dat http://www.meteor.ia...mm/nam_kiad.dat Does that thing do JYO Mitch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Can you see the future or something? How do you know the NAM is "right" when the storm hasn't happened yet? Please explain. Using the NAM run I verify the SLP and track via the SPC's mesoscale analysis page: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=17 I just take the 6hr/12hr forecasts from the NAM for certain times and verify the forecast against the mesoanalysis page (can really only be done accurately at 00z/06z/12z/18z). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ovechkin Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 http://www.meteor.ia...mm/nam_kdca.dat http://www.meteor.ia...mm/nam_kiad.dat Not sure this is a major deal, but we seem to busting on temps right now. Already 31. Not sure if that would affect ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Does that thing do JYO Mitch no, just larger airports sorry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 no, just larger airports sorry does do MTN for Phineas http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/data/cobb_namm/nam_kmtn.dat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Not sure this is a major deal, but we seem to busting on temps right now. Already 31. Not sure if that would affect ratios. no, too early in the game surface temps would drop after snow starts anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Swiscaster Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I got the impression he was talking at initialization. I was thinking that was a possibility, but if we did have a prophet amongst us, I wanted to know. Could come in handy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 no, just larger airports sorry Eh here is what the nam says for JYO just from the model output...looks like a straight 10-1 ratio 18 01/12 00Z 28 27 189 2 0.08 0.00 532 544 -3.8 -22.6 1014 100 SN 000OVC149 0.8 0.4 21 01/12 03Z 28 27 55 1 0.23 0.00 527 536 -5.9 -26.9 1011 100 SN 000OVC165 2.3 0.5 24 01/12 06Z 27 27 291 4 0.05 0.00 522 529 -8.8 -28.2 1008 100 046OVC121 0.0 15.0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 The heavy precip with the upper level energy is further south then even the NAM indicated right now, but definitely further south then the GFS which had it over northern IN right now. Currently best snow is in southern IN and northern KY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 http://www.meteor.ia...mm/nam_kdca.dat http://www.meteor.ia...mm/nam_kiad.dat thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Swiscaster Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Using the NAM run I verify the SLP and track via the SPC's mesoscale analysis page: http://www.spc.noaa....r.php?sector=17 I just take the 6hr/12hr forecasts from the NAM for certain times and verify the forecast against the mesoanalysis page (can really only be done accurately at 00z/06z/12z/18z). OK, cool. I thought maybe that's what you meant, but it wasn't clear. (Thought maybe you had some other talents.) Studying the past is very valuable when learning to predict the future, and not enough people do that. Nice work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 The heavy precip with the upper level energy is further south then even the NAM indicated right now, but definitely further south then the GFS which had it over northern IN right now. Currently best snow is in southern IN and northern KY. I noticed that and it seems as it plows east there is precip breaking out due east of it instead of ENE of course, that could change as it approaches the east coast but may be justification for 6Z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I noticed that and it seems as it plows east there is precip breaking out due east of it instead of ENE of course, that could change as it approaches the east coast but may be justification for 6Z NAM The C-ville stuff if not virga could lay down some nice fluffies as it comes NE....can't remember if the sim radars were showing anything this early Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 OK, cool. I thought maybe that's what you meant, but it wasn't clear. (Thought maybe you had some other talents.) Studying the past is very valuable when learning to predict the future, and not enough people do that. Nice workl. your skeptic shtick is a bit tiresome.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Not sure this is a major deal, but we seem to busting on temps right now. Already 31. Not sure if that would affect ratios. Ratios are effected more by air temperatures aloft where the snow crystals grow, not surface temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Swiscaster Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I noticed that and it seems as it plows east there is precip breaking out due east of it instead of ENE of course, that could change as it approaches the east coast but may be justification for 6Z NAM In looking at the radar trends, I could definitely see how a "snow hole" could develop for NOVA/DC/MD: precip back in southern IL, IN, OH, and northern KY goes to our west/north and/or breaks up, and the precip developing in NC heads more east than north and misses us a la 12/26. Extrapolating radar, I could see that maybe happening. But, I can also see how a few minor adjustments to the direction or breadth of the precip fields could result in some surprises. That is about the limit of my optimism. If it were a different winter, I would maybe be more optimistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Swiscaster Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 your skeptic shtick is a bit tiresome.... (It's tough being me.) That last post wasn't schtick though. I was really asking what he meant by the NAM being right, and I was really saying that his explanation was good stuff. If I had time, I would do the same type of thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 banding is almost always a good sign of decent upper level environment for development of course, it has to make it to us, but that's not scheduled until this evening into night so don't anyone start whining about it missing us to our east its the banding that's important here http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0R&rid=rax&loop=yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 one other thing you can see the coastal front on this radar moving slowly to the NNE if it can make it up to, but preferably N of HAT, 6Z NAM has a shot of coming close to verifying http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0R&rid=mhx&loop=yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 11, 2011 Author Share Posted January 11, 2011 Stuff firing near C-ville It was snowing this morning at la fitness in leesburg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I thought the snows are pretty impressive in KY/south OH/IN this morning. Much more than I thought would be there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I thought the snows are pretty impressive in KY/south OH/IN this morning. Much more than I thought would be there. I'm not sure if that is good for US or bad if that storm in the OV is stronger,, the coastal takes over later the most important ob is that the trough of the u/l s/w seems to be staying south along or near KY/TN boarder, but how long it maintains that trajectory is unknown 6Z NAM kept it very close until starting to lift north in WVA, which is undoubtedly the best case scenario for us with this storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 FWIW, the Low Pressure off the SE coast is already a couple mb lower than what even the NAM predicted this morning. /end weenieism ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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