EasternUSWX Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Hi ya! BOOMMM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I pulled up the H5 map and was hole HOLLY SH*T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dalfy Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 OMG smexy woah... Im totally shocked and unbelievably speechless... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ger Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 What does this mean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 What does this mean? If the 6z NAM is right, 3-6" rather than 1-3". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dalfy Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I feel like the guy in this video... Im sorry had to post it... I really feel like a weenie now hahaha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 If the 6z NAM is right, 3-6" rather than 1-3". IF...and its a HUGE IF...the NAM is correct its probably more then that towards BWI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dalfy Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 If the 6z NAM is right, 3-6" rather than 1-3". No... taken verbatum that is around 4-8'' That is greater than .5'' for pretty much all of maryland up to extreme northeastern virginia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ger Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 If real time observations give the new NAM support, I had better get my damn Winter Storm Warning upgrade Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 How accurate is the NAM at this range? I am really pulling for stormtracker to get 7-9 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southmdwatcher Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 if radar continues to improve and any other models come around to this NAM solution...we will have some suprised peeps in a few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 if radar continues to improve and any other models come around to this NAM solution...we will have some suprised peeps in a few hours. Radar seems to be developing pretty well over the past ten or so hours - But I thought I am just over weening on snow - You know, I lived thru snowmageddon last season, and am basically grasping at straws, and am only seeing what I wish to see on radar this morning, that the radar may be setting up to maybe overperform - basic rediculous weenieism at its very worst. We'll see in the coming hours. I hope for the best ---Especially for stormtracker - Love to see him knee-deep in powder by Wednesday morning if at all possible. Okay - knee deep is over done - maybe see him top of his boots deep in nine inches of fresh powder by Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Not buying 06z NAM yet.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dalfy Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 6z gfs looks very similar to 0z... its drier and slightly further west @ hr 30-36... its still amazing the inconsistancy within even 30 hours for the precip. We have nam spewing .5-.6 while gfs maybe .2? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 hmm which is more accurate in this range, 06z gfs or 06z NAM ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eaglesin2011 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 F rain mixing now past va/ nc boarder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Swiscaster Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 hmm which is more accurate in this range, 06z gfs or 06z NAM ? Doesn't matter. Remember, pick the model that gives you the least snow and you'll verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Amazing to be 12hrs out from a storm and have the models DIVERGING instead of converging. Especially after pretty reasonable consistency between the model suite for the past couple/few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Amazing to be 12hrs out from a storm and have the models DIVERGING instead of converging. Especially after pretty reasonable consistency between the model suite for the past couple/few days. I think it could be due to the NAM's resolution picking up on a mesoscale feature better and not damping it out as much as the GFS would... unfortunately it seems to not only pick it up, but also enhance it, which would be a culprit for the diverging solutions. 06z GFS has the SFC low too far east... 06z NAM is right on (as the NAM has been) with the low placement. Does this mean the QPF is more legit? We'll see... EDIT: Fixed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I think it could be due to the NAM's resolution picking up on a mesoscale feature better and not damping it out as much as the GFS would... unfortunately it seems to not only pick it up, but also enhance it, which would be a culprit for the diverging solutions. 06z GFS has the SFC low too far east... 06z NAM is right on (as the NAM has been) with the low placement. Does this mean the QPF is more legit? We'll see... EDIT: Fixed I'll take it. I'd much rather have 5-6" than 1-2" LWX seems to be taking the NAM solution, at least on their map: http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/lwx/winterstorm/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 NAM was near perfect in predicting the 12/26 bust vs. GFS and even SREFs hopefully, it will be near perfect with this storm the weenie lament: why are the models right when they sniff out a last minute bust but are wrong when the sniff out a last minute bomb? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 6Z Bufki gives BWI 10.1" 6" for DCA and 6.8" for IAD best of all, Boston only gets 6.8" of snow because of rain mix Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I'll take it. I'd much rather have 5-6" than 1-2" LWX seems to be taking the NAM solution, at least on their map: http://www.erh.noaa....wx/winterstorm/ Did that just update? Stinking NAM even gives back here over .36....GFS gives .06. Oh boy!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 6Z Bufki gives BWI 10.1" 6" for DCA and 6.8" for IAD best of all, Boston only gets 6.8" of snow because of rain mix LOL!! If that fantasy verifies I will sacrifice a goat to the snow god Powderus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 The energy out west appears to be coming in pretty far south compared to models yesterday... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 It would be kind of crazy if the NAM ends up right here....as some of you know during the 26th storm when the NAM came in dry and didn't move while the other models were giving us some good stuff I screamed RED FLAG. Randy gave me some ribbing because of it but in the end it definitely caught on to something....HOPE IT'S RIGHT THIS TIME Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Is anyone here a RUC expert? I thought it was the best very short range model, but it looks dry as a bone for most of MA. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/ruc/hr4/fpc.shtml I don't really use or know it, so I welcome (really welcome!) someone to explain what I'm looking at wrong, or why it's out to lunch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doplerdurite Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Flurries in Gainesville Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 6Z Bufki gives BWI 10.1" 6" for DCA and 6.8" for IAD best of all, Boston only gets 6.8" of snow because of rain mix Can you post? thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 6Z Bufki gives BWI 10.1" 6" for DCA and 6.8" for IAD best of all, Boston only gets 6.8" of snow because of rain mix Think I could get that link from you. Site I go to doesn't provide snow ratios. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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