MD Snow Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Tombo euro came in a lot stronger and a good bit wetter .25-.5 southern delmarva to balt to west of mdt .5-.75 cape may to west chester to montrose pa .75-1 ocean county to sussex co nj Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I'm probably hallucinating badly now... But that radar is showing more and more development. http://radar.weather...s/full_loop.php The area of snow over E WV is not just appearing then fading like most severe weenie hallucinations. It continues to grow. It is growing in areal coverage with time. One thing I have noticed all day long today as I have watched this radar - with my face literally glued to the flat screen the entire time and my jaw resting on the desk in amazement - is that the precip elements keep moving ENE. It stands to reason - It's been 16 hours. I have been standing here staring at this radar until I am blue in the face, and I'd've SWORN that the precip should be well out in the ocean by now. SO WHY IS IT STILL IN NC AND VA?????????? I am no meteorologist - I don't know what this is called - But I will attempt to describe what I have observed all day long into tonight. Over SC, NC, VA and now West Virginia - There is some kind of development in the atmosphere, something that is allowing precip to form and appear to move ENE all day long and now all evening long - YET IT IS STILL REDEVELOPING and still it moves ENE. There is moisture that appears to be bubbling up from SC and propagating ENE but at the same time, the elements are building NORTH. These elements have built into central VA and are making inroads on Northern VA. In addition - There are newer precipitation elements developing over the state of West Virginia and even eastern Kentucky and extreme southwestern Virginia. In extrapolation - I would venture to speculate that the existing elements over VA will backbuild north into N VA and into the District. The West Virginia elements are expanding in areal extent and they will continue to expand. All of these elements are tending to move ENE and are automagically regenerating and rebuilding/backbuilding thus the elements keep moving ENE but they never just move out to sea, the sky clears, and we have sun tomorrow with a high of 47 degrees. Rather, the sky is clouding up, temperatures and dewpoints are slowly rising and the north wind has become light and variable and I am left to wonder what ever the hell is going on. I don't think all I am going to get tomorrow is going to be just a dusting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Tombo euro came in a lot stronger and a good bit wetter .25-.5 southern delmarva to balt to west of mdt .5-.75 cape may to west chester to montrose pa .75-1 ocean county to sussex co nj Lets wait for the exact QPF numbers....25-.50 is a pretty wide range, its probably like .30 for balt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I'm probably hallucinating badly now... But that radar is showing more and more development. http://radar.weather...s/full_loop.php The area of snow over E WV is not just appearing then fading like most severe weenie hallucinations. It continues to grow. It is growing in areal coverage with time. One thing I have noticed all day long today as I have watched this radar - with my face literally glued to the flat screen the entire time and my jaw resting on the desk in amazement - is that the precip elements keep moving ENE. It stands to reason - It's been 16 hours. I have been standing here staring at this radar until I am blue in the face, and I'd've SWORN that the precip should be well out in the ocean by now. SO WHY IS IT STILL IN NC AND VA?????????? I am no meteorologist - I don't know what this is called - But I will attempt to describe what I have observed all day long into tonight. Over SC, NC, VA and now West Virginia - There is some kind of development in the atmosphere, something that is allowing precip to form and appear to move ENE all day long and now all evening long - YET IT IS STILL REDEVELOPING and still it moves ENE. There is moisture that appears to be bubbling up from SC and propagating ENE but at the same time, the elements are building NORTH. These elements have built into central VA and are making inroads on Northern VA. In addition - There are newer precipitation elements developing over the state of West Virginia and even eastern Tennessee. In extrapolation - I would venture to speculate that the existing elements over VA will backbuild north into N VA and into the District. The West Virginia elements are expanding in areal extent and they will continue to expand. All of these elements are tending to move ENE and are automagically regenerating and rebuilding/backbuilding thus the elements keep moving ENE but they never just move out to sea, the sky clears, and we have sun tomorrow with a high of 47 degrees. Rather, the sky is clouding up, temperatures and dewpoints are slowly rising and the north wind has become light and variable and I am left to wonder what ever the hell is going on. I don't think all I am going to get tomorrow is going to be just a dusting. ENE movement of precipitation is not going to get it in here very quickly, not only that from what I can tell most areas are reporting light precip from it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Lets wait for the exact QPF numbers....25-.50 is a pretty wide range, its probably like .30 for balt I'm down with that. Just as long as it didn't back off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Hopefully the EURO validates that 3-5" forecast for us around Baltimore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Symblized Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 ENE movement of precipitation is not going to get it in here very quickly, not only that from what I can tell most areas are reporting light precip from it Closest I see is obs of light snow in Lynchburg. Not that it means anything whatsoever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I'm down with that. Just as long as it didn't back off. Hopefully the EURO validates that 3-5" forecast for us around Baltimore. According to Tombo, Balt is about .3.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Hopefully the EURO validates that 3-5" forecast for us around Baltimore. According to Tombo our QPF is around .30, so 3-4" is not bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 On GR2AE, there is 25-30 dbz echos just NE of Charlottesville,VA. The radar elevation of those echoes is 4200', the GFS BUFKIT sounding for 2AM at KCHO (Charlottesville,VA) shows a forecasted temp/dp of -2.7/-20.7... and its still moving towards the radar with each volume scan. WTF? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 On GR2AE, there is 25-30 dbz echos just NE of Charlottesville,VA. The radar elevation of those echoes is 4200', the GFS BUFKIT sounding for 2AM at KCHO (Charlottesville,VA) shows a forecasted temp/dp of -2.7/-20.7... and its still moving towards the radar with each volume scan. WTF? and what do you make of that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Tombo euro came in a lot stronger and a good bit wetter .25-.5 southern delmarva to balt to west of mdt .5-.75 cape may to west chester to montrose pa .75-1 ocean county to sussex co nj That's all a load of crap, and the .5/.75 and the .75/1 splits he did are purely by eyeballing the 0.5-1 inch shading... Doing a run-to-run comparison of the 12z and 00z Euro Ops, the 00z Euro actually came in slightly DRIER for DC and central/southern VA (expanded S/E from the hole over NoVA)... probably in part because the region has lost 12 hours of "precip" in some areas. Other areas in the region remained similar, with higher (more westward) QPF in the NJ/E PA and areas. This is from looking at the run-to-run comparison of the 72-hour QPF total ending at 00z on the 14th (Wed. evening). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 That's all a load of crap, and the .5/.75 and the .75/1 splits he did are purely by eyeballing the 0.5-1 inch shading... Doing a run-to-run comparison of the 12z and 00z Euro Ops, the 00z Euro actually came in slightly DRIER for DC and central/southern VA (expanded S/E from the hole over NoVA). Other areas in the region remained similar, with higher (more westward) QPF in the NJ/E PA and areas. So your saying Baltimore is not getting more than 2-3"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 So your saying Baltimore is not getting more than 2-3"? They still have around 0.3" QPF, but that's also from eye-balling the totals (probably what Tombo was doing), so I'd keep them at 2-4" slightly DRIER refers to small but noticeable shifts in the totals... but the shifts aren't significant enough to be changing snow forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 and what do you make of that? Im not quite sure, there are reports of snow out of rockingham county. Though if I were to make a guess, the 500mb divergence might be a cause. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Light echos are knocking on Fredericksburg's door. http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0R&rid=lwx&loop=yes And yes I'm not saying anything else for fear of weenie abuse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vinylfreak89 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Im not quite sure, there are reports of snow out of rockingham county. Though if I were to make a guess, the 500mb divergence might be a cause. divergence is mostly ocuring over NC... so that kinda makes sense as a source region but doesnt really explain whats popping up to the west. Id also like to point out from the other thread currently is following i'd say 90 % close to my red line... whether it stays that way by morning or begins to diverge remains to be seen... but I'm starting to like the idea of this being an overperformer... my initial forecast, 3-6 DC/Balt, 2-5 NW, 1-4 shen. valley Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vinylfreak89 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I'm liking this frontogenesis a lot.... and there's ur answer why the surprise returns... a bit of it ocurring over WV... looks indicative to me the phase is beginning to occur Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I'm liking this frontogenesis a lot.... and there's ur answer why the surprise returns... a bit of it ocurring over WV... looks indicative to me the phase is beginning to occur I think that's due to mountain forcing, there is still 30 kts of SW flow over the mountains ahead of the h7 low. There has got to be something else that is at least enhancing the mountain frontogenisis, or else we wouldn't have radar returns moving into Fredricksburg, and VA tidewater. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 divergence is mostly ocuring over NC... so that kinda makes sense as a source region but doesnt really explain whats popping up to the west. Id also like to point out from the other thread currently is following i'd say 90 % close to my red line... whether it stays that way by morning or begins to diverge remains to be seen... but I'm starting to like the idea of this being an overperformer... my initial forecast, 3-6 DC/Balt, 2-5 NW, 1-4 shen. valley Vinylfreak - I think you may actually be onto something. I remember your post in the other thread earlier on Monday. The area of precip developing over the eastern half of West Virginia - has been showing 15 dbz (shades of blue) signatures. Well now it is sporting 20 to 25 dbz (shades of GREEN) signatures. The W VA area is expanding and it is intensifying. If I am hallucinating I sure have got one VIRULENT mental illness - Or meteorologists should perhaps take a glance at their radars this morning (Tuesday morning). If you are even half correct about that western piece of energy - Mets all up and down the Eastern Seaboard may be SCRAMBLING to play catch up by noon today (Tuesday). G-d what a freakin' weenie I am GEEZE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vinylfreak89 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 its funny.... just as one thing improves with this storm we get yet another mesoscale fly in the ointment.. while the h5 has come in to a better allignment for us, our new "problem" is hte piece of vorticity that splits off and goes thru NW PA.... the next thing to watch on the radar is where the band of snow near St. Louis ends up in about 12-18 hours... if its in cleveland we're screwed.... if its in cincinati, we're not... we can ddeal with that band going slightly north now because of the better coastal development... it is seeming more and more likely we're going to have to rely on the coastal tracking closer in than the phase... hmm... but the frontogenesis over WV says otherwise... that the phase is already beginning... i dont know wave dyanmics well enough to know... can a phase occur with a SW - NE orientation (positive tilt) as opposed to NW - SE (neg. tilt) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I'm liking this frontogenesis a lot.... and there's ur answer why the surprise returns... a bit of it ocurring over WV... looks indicative to me the phase is beginning to occur [weenie]Is this a little bit early for the phase to occur? I thought it wasn't supposed to really set up until like early Wed morning.[/weenie] If all this is perfectly in line with the modeling, then I'm a fooking weenie. Geeze already! I'll take a dusting to a couple inches and let this foolishness go yesterday. If this is NOT in line with the modeling/If it is occurring earlier than modeled... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vinylfreak89 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I think that's due to mountain forcing, there is still 30 kts of SW flow over the mountains ahead of the h7 low. There has got to be something else that is at least enhancing the mountain frontogenisis, or else we wouldn't have radar returns moving into Fredricksburg, and VA tidewater. excelent point... i often miss looking at orographical effects, but doesnt that evolution drive the overall mechanics? its just another part of the equation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vinylfreak89 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 [weenie]Is this a little bit early for the phase to occur? I thought it wasn't supposed to really set up until like early Wed morning.[/weenie] If all this is perfectly in line with the modeling, then I'm a fooking weenie. Geeze already! I'll take a dusting to a couple inches and let this foolishness go yesterday. If this is NOT in line with the modeling/If it is occurring earlier than modeled... If it is an earlier phase then it wasn't modeled at all, but after reading KMUx91's post I no longer think it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 As a final hurrah post. 1. Notice how the precip field is stopping at fredricksburg. That equates to about 3200' on radar. Note also that the 00z RAOB from IAD had -53°C dew point (extremely dry) at about that same height. While the precip can't make it to the surface the clouds can still moisten the air, the longer this persists the more moisture it will virga to help alleviate that dry slot. This can be seen by satellite by using the IR2 channel: 2. The frontogenisis along the Carolina coast is being caused by the temperature difference between the gulf stream temperature (58°F) and the land surface temperature ( 28°F). A 30°F temperature difference over 50 miles can cause major mesoscale effects which deepen the low faster than modeled. Which, if you look at the 3 hour pressure difference maps, is already starting to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 NAM has been handling the coastal low development quite well so far... I've been leaning on the NAM solution for the past couple of days, and it's looking like it could verify. There is no need for mets to scramble to change their forecasts... everything looks to be in line at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 NAM has been handling the coastal low development quite well so far... I've been leaning on the NAM solution for the past couple of days, and it's looking like it could verify. There is no need for mets to scramble to change their forecasts... everything looks to be in line at this point. Umm holy crap look at 6Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 OMG is anyone else seeing what the NAM is about to do... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dalfy Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Woah 06z nam.... huge shift west.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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