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Jan 11-12 Model/Forecasting Discussion


Ji

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too much of any good thing is bad

believe me

this is just one obvious example imho

humility has its benefits

If it weren't for last winter, I would be MORE upset about the screwjobs we're getting this year. As unlucky as we are this year, I do take comfort in the fact that I lived to see nearly four feet of snow fall in the span of 5 days, and experienced a winter of over 80" of snow.

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too much of any good thing is bad

believe me

this is just one obvious example imho

humility has its benefits

i dont think anyone would truly give it up to get more 20" winters if there was some sort of weather karma when it comes down to it. it is tough to think that you already saw the best and you won't again if you live in this area the rest of your life... but im sure most of us would be totally thrilled with another 95/96 or 02/03.... we've had big winters enough recently to think that there is still a shot to have more while we are alive at least. even without a huge winter you know you'll get another big snowstorm eventually.

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JB from Twitter

Another big ticket winter storm threat next week before pattern starts to let up.

still says bwi 3-6 inches and DCA from a quick fierce thump and go

He's been wrong ten times already this winter... who cares what he says about next week. He's been dreadful to this point with his forecasts. rolleyes.gif

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i dont think anyone would truly give it up to get more 20" winters if there was some sort of weather karma when it comes down to it. it is tough to think that you already saw the best and you won't again if you live in this area the rest of your life... but im sure most of us would be totally thrilled with another 95/96 or 02/03.... we've had big winters enough recently to think that there is still a shot to have more while we are alive at least. even without a huge winter you know you'll get another big snowstorm eventually.

well I was following up to my belief that last year gave unrealistic expectations for years to come

anyway, its not like I have anything to show for it; come May 1, its all gone every year whether you live here or in Boston

but for last year, I know I would not have spent the effort I have spent this year

yeah, I would have followed the events, but not to what I have

I honestly can;t wait for the warm-up and I'm tired of JB's same old lousy forecasts for our area-he!!, he was too low last year even!

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off topic kinda but does anyone know links to a good sfc obs maps that includes buoys, METAR, etc... I like the UCAR map but it shows Alt not SLP and doesnt show buoys. Always wondered how you guys pull these insane buoy or one station reporting the lowest pressure etc

Haven't gotten far enough to see if anyone answered this.

www.ndbc.noaa.gov

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How about some OBS from that area..

few light snow, mostly near the nc border

METAR KHLX 110400Z AUTO 06003KT 1 1/4SM -SN BKN006 BKN014 OVC019 M06/M07 A3013 RMK AO2

i dont think it's that far off the nam maybe slightly north temporarily

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/00/images/nam_pcp_006m.gif

roa has a dp of 11.. see if they can get snow with echoes overhead for a while .. even if so you roll the nam forward and a lot misses

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Maybe I can make it to the day 8-9 storm. Most of it should be before truncation now. I think I'm having a revelation that I don't really enjoy snow that much, but tracking it day to day really gives me something to look forward to on a daily basis. It's probably not healthy to microanalyze that. Just let it be.

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11:00 p.m. DC forecasts

Bob Ryan said 1 to 2 inches and was majorly downplaying the event, but he showed a map that had DC in 2 to 3, although he cautioned he thought it was too high.

Topper on Channel 9 said 1 to 3 for entire area.

Forget her name on NBC had the most impressive map. 2 to 3 inches for Northern Virginia and 3 to 4 inches from the Potomac River, including the District, on north. And her map seems to have increased from what she was showing at 6 p.m., so not sure what she saw that made her change her mind. Maybe the LWX advisory.

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Maybe I can make it to the day 8-9 storm. Most of it should be before truncation now. I think I'm having a revelation that I don't really enjoy snow that much, but tracking it day to day really gives me something to look forward to on a daily basis. It's probably not healthy to microanalyze that. Just let it be.

I was kind of thinking the same thing about me. Do I get more enjoyment out of watching the models deposit QPF than I get from Mother Nature depositing it? The fact that it is even debatable is disturbing.

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It's also breaking apart as there really isn't much of LP to keep it organized now, and even so, as we saw on 12/26, as long as we only have a N wind, it probably won't get here. If there were an easterly component, well, then it might be more interesting.

We may only have a N wind - nonetheless - The elements ARE progressing NEward. They ARE making steady progress.

It suggests some flurry activity may impinge on the metro region considerably earlier than forecasted. If that obtains, snow accums may also be impacted in a very good way, with respect to snow weenies.

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I was kind of thinking the same thing about me. Do I get more enjoyment out of watching the models deposit QPF than I get from Mother Nature depositing it? The fact that it is even debatable is disturbing.

i think that is the case for a lot of us... the anticipation and tracking aspect is more fun than when its fallin.... think about it... even during the storm... we're watching for the next best band to set up... the back edge to backbuild etc... when its over its just a big pile of crap to shovel.

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i think that is the case for a lot of us... the anticipation and tracking aspect is more fun than when its fallin.... think about it... even during the storm... we're watching for the next best band to set up... the back edge to backbuild etc... when its over its just a big pile of crap to shovel.

The shoveling is the BEST part of the experience by far.

I'd give my eyeteeth for a chance to go to NYC to show Bloomberg how to clear snow from his embattled city. Better yet - I'd love to go to Weathafella land and show HIM how to shovel snow from all of New England.

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