BaltimoreWxGuy Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Tomorrow is going to be a long day...we're already getting surface obs and radar hallucinations..when people see the radar tom morning they are going to scream storm cancel... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2010 extreme Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 It had the four inch line west of I95. im hugging sref... it had it's bust last storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 500 low not good.. it's gone north the last 24 hours and it was borderline to begin with at its southern most move.. that might not change much dc area but it lowers the chances of a bigger event starting in our neck of the woods for sure http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_500_030m.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 00z MM5 on its way out, 18z run was good (especially the sim rad) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vinylfreak89 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 most of the stuff that has any chance to move toward is is falling apart as i would expect it to.... still NW flow here... point is its further north than modeled by about 50 miles.... yes that particular band wont reach us but its helping to start the WAA process. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 JB from Twitter Another big ticket winter storm threat next week before pattern starts to let up. still says bwi 3-6 inches and DCA from a quick fierce thump and go seriously anyone that knows JB code knows he is bailing on DC. He mentions possibly having to adjust or clean up the edges of his snow areas and references DC and BWI several times in that regard. He even mentions waiting to see what the obs are at HAT before adjusting DC and Balt...that is as close to JB admitting he will bust as you will ever get. As soon as the models picked up on the fact that the H5 low was going to go to our west we were SOL with this. The only time that works is when you have a block and there is a lot of STJ involved...then you can get a nice thump front end snow and dryslot...but in this setup were screwed. Only chance is a last minute adjustment south in the H5 that models arent seeing. Actually the real only chance is if the H5 jumps south some in response to the coastal. NAM almost does this but 3 hours too late. Its a long shot hail mary and all we got left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I wish last year never happened it gave me unrealistic expectations that will stay with me for years I'm certain of it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
real Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 GFS seems like a disaster for NY. The one thing we can find solace in with our putrid forecast, is we have less to lose one way or another. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I'd love to hear some explanation as to why the GFS is worse than at 18. Heck, its even wetter for areas near Baltimore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Tomorrow is going to be a long day...we're already getting surface obs and radar hallucinations..when people see the radar tom morning they are going to scream storm cancel... We need shi**y radar returns to cancel this POS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathervswife Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 REALLY?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 if GFS verifies, nothing special at all up and down the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Are the Philly weenies gloating over their comparably good winter. I really have not been looking at that forum. They are having two decent winters in a row. The only big east coast city that can claim that. NYC ended up way above average last winter. They got 3 10"+ storms last winter. Don't let their bitching confuse you, they only think their winter was bad in their own heads because it wasnt 400 percent of average like ours was. Basically it would be like if DC got 40" but complained because Richmond got 60". They are ridiculous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I'd love to hear some explanation as to why the GFS is worse than at 18. Heck, its even wetter for areas near Baltimore. it's essentially the same unless you're east of the bay Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Druff Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 it gave me unrealistic expectations that will stay with me for years I'm certain of it 6000+ posts in this tread and this is the only one worthy of :applause: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 it's essentially the same unless you're east of the bay That's what I thought too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I wish last year never happened it gave me unrealistic expectations that will stay with me for years I'm certain of it I wish this year never happened. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 The GFS QPF doesn't look a whole lot different from 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I still think my call of trace to 2" at BWI is safe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 so the 1 inch QPF for Boston and 1.25 for Cape is nothng special? Mk just look at the 500 maps on the nam/gfs at 36/42.. someone near boston is going to get absolutely demolished .. unfortunately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 NYC ended up way above average last winter. They got 3 10"+ storms last winter. Don't let their bitching confuse you, they only think their winter was bad in their own heads because it wasnt 400 percent of average like ours was. Basically it would be like if DC got 40" but complained because Richmond got 60". They are ridiculous. Any New Yorker who thinks last winter wasn't good in their area is delusional. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 GFS run was actually better qpf wise with the .25 line than 18z. No change from 18z with .1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 just look at the 500 maps on the nam/gfs at 36/42.. someone near boston is going to get absolutely demolished .. unfortunately. GFS is nothing like NAM, which was historic if GFS verified, its not a KU if NAM does, it is imho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 When is our next disappointment? 7 days? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I wish last year never happened You are fooking insane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 GFS is nothing like NAM, which was historic if GFS verified, its not a KU if NAM does, it is imho Truth is probably somewhere in the middle tho in this range I like the NAM's resolution even if it tends to overdo QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pojrzsho Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 It's also breaking apart as there really isn't much of LP to keep it organized now, and even so, as we saw on 12/26, as long as we only have a N wind, it probably won't get here. If there were an easterly component, well, then it might be more interesting. It's not gonna make it to us until after 10 am at least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 You are fooking insane. too much of any good thing is bad believe me this is just one obvious example imho humility has its benefits Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vinylfreak89 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 i like the tilt of the frontogenesis http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/archiveviewer.php?sector=17&parm=sfnt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 It's not gonna make it to us until after 10 am at least this is a very conservative radar image and it has some surprisingly west cells developing http://www.atmos.albany.edu/products/radarne/radarloop.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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