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Jan 11-12 Model/Forecasting Discussion


Ji

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actually, it's really not a solid moisture plume. Even if holds together which is probably won't, can't see it amounting to much, especially around here.

SN at KMTV.....yes it may be sporatic but those arent nothing returns. LWX radar is lighting up with what may not be virga. might be starting to back off the confluence enough to start some WAA soon.

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Yeah, looking at the GFS so far, not heading for good things. Not going with the GFS for my forecast, all the higher resolutions are better for me. many against gfs.

i'd definitely hug the worst models you can find

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actually, it's really not a solid moisture plume. Even if holds together which is probably won't, can't see it amounting to much, especially around here.

believe me, I understand the broken structure of the precip band

I'm trying to be a little positive

it is nicely generating as it moves north

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SN at KMTV.....yes it may be sporatic but those arent nothing returns. LWX radar is lighting up with what may not be virga. might be starting to back off the confluence enough to start some WAA soon.

all the stuff to the south now is modeled to drift ene

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northeast_loop.gif

modeled or not look at reality... thats more of a 50-55 degree motion vector.... NE not ENE.

TIME SENSITIVE

It's also breaking apart as there really isn't much of LP to keep it organized now, and even so, as we saw on 12/26, as long as we only have a N wind, it probably won't get here. If there were an easterly component, well, then it might be more interesting.

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SN at KMTV.....yes it may be sporatic but those arent nothing returns. LWX radar is lighting up with what may not be virga. might be starting to back off the confluence enough to start some WAA soon.

There are flurries 20 miles to my south--and they can't budge north. Don't think it will move north until that coastal takes over. Has been snowing 30-50 miles DUE south of me for 3-5 hours. (MTV is 70 miles SW)

According to the NAM, I don't saturate enough for snow until 4 am...and radar looks pretty damn good, but its like hitting a brick wall.

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