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Jan 11-12 Model/Forecasting Discussion


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URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC

939 PM EST MON JAN 10 2011

MDZ005>007-010-011-013-014-111045-

/O.UPG.KLWX.WS.A.0001.110111T2100Z-110112T1100Z/

/O.NEW.KLWX.WW.Y.0003.110111T2100Z-110112T1100Z/

CARROLL-NORTHERN BALTIMORE-HARFORD-HOWARD-SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-

PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WESTMINSTER...COLUMBIA...BALTIMORE...

ANNAPOLIS

939 PM EST MON JAN 10 2011

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM TUESDAY TO 6 AM

EST WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HAS

ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW... WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM

4 PM TUESDAY TO 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO

LONGER IN EFFECT.

* PRECIPITATION TYPE...SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...3 TO 5 INCHES.

* TIMING...SNOW WILL BEGIN DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON ON

TUESDAY...AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE SNOW WILL BE

HEAVIEST BETWEEN 9 PM TUESDAY AND 3 AM WEDNESDAY.

* TEMPERATURES...HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S TUESDAY. LOWS IN THE MID

20S TUESDAY NIGHT.

* WINDS...NORTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH TUESDAY...BECOMING NORTHWEST 15

TO 25 MPH TUESDAY NIGHT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CAUSE

TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED

VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.

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A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6:00AM EST WEDNESDAY, JANUARY 12

Issue Time: 9:39PM EST, Monday Jan 10, 2011

Valid Until: 5:45AM EST, Tuesday Jan 11, 2011

Back to summary

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM TUESDAY TO 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY

UNTIL 5:45AM EST

Urgent - Winter Weather Message

National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC

939 PM EST Mon Jan 10 2011

District Of Columbia-Washington-Frederick MD-Montgomery-Charles-

St. Marys-Calvert-Frederick VA-Warren-Clarke-Loudoun-

Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park-Fairfax-

Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Stafford-King George-

Northern Fauquier-Southern Fauquier-Morgan-Berkeley-Jefferson-

Including The Cities Of... Washington... Hagerstown... Frederick...

Gaithersburg... Waldorf... St Marys City... Winchester...

Front Royal... Leesburg... Manassas... Manassas Park... Fairfax...

Alexandria... Falls Church... Warrenton... Martinsburg...

Charles Town

... Winter Weather Advisory In Effect From 4 PM Tuesday To 6 Am

Est Wednesday...

The National Weather Service In Baltimore MD/Washington Has

Issued A Winter Weather Advisory For Snow... Which Is In Effect From

4 PM Tuesday To 6 AM EST Wednesday.

* Precipitation Type... Snow.

* Accumulations... 2 To 4 Inches.

* Timing... Snow Will Begin During The Late Afternoon On

Tuesday... And Continue Through Tuesday Night. The Snow Will Be

Heaviest Between 7 PM Tuesday And 1 AM Wednesday.

* Temperatures... Highs In The Lower 30s Tuesday. Lows In The Mid

20s Tuesday Night.

* Winds... Northeast 5 To 10 Mph Tuesday... Becoming Northwest 10

To 20 Mph Tuesday Night.

Precautionary/Preparedness Actions...

A Winter Weather Advisory Means That Periods Of Snow... Sleet... Or

Freezing Rain Will Cause Travel Difficulties. Be Prepared For

Slippery Roads And Limited Visibilities... And Use Caution While

Driving.

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Are the Philly weenies gloating over their comparably good winter. I really have not been looking at that forum. They are having two decent winters in a row. The only big east coast city that can claim that.

Noone is gloating, and NYC's winter last year was also very good (50", as well as snowiest month on record). I think patience will prove that DC will still see significant snow this winter, just give it another week or two.

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Are the Philly weenies gloating over their comparably good winter. I really have not been looking at that forum. They are having two decent winters in a row. The only big east coast city that can claim that.

Umm, I think NYC had 52 inches last winter.

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I would feel better about the LWX 2 to 4 and 3 to 5 forecasts if they didn't just predict 2 to 4 on Saturday for areas of Maryland that ended up with a trace. Still, like how they included the entire region in at least 2 to 4, meaning they don't see much of a snowhole anywhere.

I still think this is going to be close between minimal and o.k. snow, but not ready to bet we don't approach the upper limits of the forecast amounts in a few heavier bursts of snow tomorrow evening as storm starts cranking up.

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WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM TUESDAY TO 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY

UNTIL 5:45AM EST

Urgent - Winter Weather Message

National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC

939 PM EST Mon Jan 10 2011

District Of Columbia-Washington-Frederick MD-Montgomery-Charles-

St. Marys-Calvert-Frederick VA-Warren-Clarke-Loudoun-

Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park-Fairfax-

Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Stafford-King George-

Northern Fauquier-Southern Fauquier-Morgan-Berkeley-Jefferson-

Including The Cities Of... Washington... Hagerstown... Frederick...

Gaithersburg... Waldorf... St Marys City... Winchester...

Front Royal... Leesburg... Manassas... Manassas Park... Fairfax...

Alexandria... Falls Church... Warrenton... Martinsburg...

Charles Town

... Winter Weather Advisory In Effect From 4 PM Tuesday To 6 Am

Est Wednesday...

The National Weather Service In Baltimore MD/Washington Has

Issued A Winter Weather Advisory For Snow... Which Is In Effect From

4 PM Tuesday To 6 AM EST Wednesday.

* Precipitation Type... Snow.

* Accumulations... 2 To 4 Inches.

* Timing... Snow Will Begin During The Late Afternoon On

Tuesday... And Continue Through Tuesday Night. The Snow Will Be

Heaviest Between 7 PM Tuesday And 1 AM Wednesday.

* Temperatures... Highs In The Lower 30s Tuesday. Lows In The Mid

20s Tuesday Night.

* Winds... Northeast 5 To 10 Mph Tuesday... Becoming Northwest 10

To 20 Mph Tuesday Night.

I'm going for 4" It's time to be bold - this storm ain't for sissies. :snowman::thumbsup::scooter:

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I dont know how they are forecasting 2-4 for my area. But good luck with that call.

* PRECIPITATION TYPE...SNOW.* ACCUMULATIONS...2 TO 4 INCHES.* TIMING...SNOW WILL BEGIN DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON ON TUESDAY...AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE SNOW WILL BE HEAVIEST BETWEEN 7 PM TUESDAY AND 1 AM WEDNESDAY.

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I'm going for 4" It's time to be bold - this storm ain't for sissies. :snowman::thumbsup::scooter:

Hell Yeah! It's falling at night and ratios may give us 4.5".

We're gonna rally this storm to its optimum!! There's still time for improvements in the models!

Mid Atlantic'ers NEVER give up!! We're even hardier than New Englanders like Weathafella!! Weathafella would keel over dead in a snowstorm that I could jebwalk 50 miles in easy.

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