Dr No Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I think the only possible chance of a miracle is for things to slow down enough that the trof amplifies quite a bit in the midwest. The upper energy can bomb and hopefully shunt more east than ENE. I'm not sure if we'd really gain much though and most locals would have to deal with a light mix/sdry slot until the dynamics approach. but I think that's the only plausible change....then we roll the dice with dynamics. Something like this, but deeper as it passes through WV: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/hiresw/12/images/hiresw_500_042m.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 We have another model to potentially let us down...coming on live tonight/tomorrow sometime Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 True, but it will be correct this time because we are getting less snow it's hard to get much less than a dusting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 We have another model to potentially let us down...coming on live tonight/tomorrow sometime looks too far north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Yoda, p-a-l-e-e-z-e don't post the RUC! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 We will rally. We always do. We're Mid Atlantic folk. We will ENJOY our misery. We've seen worse. As we sit here tonight and even tomorrow, hoping for the miracle that won't come, we'll still enjoy every flake falling from the sky tomorrow afternoon. It's not the jackpot, but its something. Come on gang, enjoy your .20 of QPF. As you well know from being a DC lifer, winters aren't winters unless we have some of these events. It's part of us...its in our blood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Yoda, p-a-l-e-e-z-e don't post the RUC! Oh ok. I deleted it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Oh ok. I deleted it its not you, its that useless model it changes every hour! I have no idea why they run it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 how long did it take you to figure that out? As long as it took me to read the sentence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I'm honestly happy I'll be in meetings with little to no internet access all day tomorrow. Maybe I'll walk out to a little surprise snowfall at 5:00 and then struggle to drive the 18 miles home in less than two hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeedaSnowday Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I'm honestly happy I'll be in meetings with little to no internet access all day tomorrow. Maybe I'll walk out to a little surprise snowfall at 5:00 and then struggle to drive the 18 miles home in less than two hours. egads... aint that the truth! Last time we had a lil snow it took me 2 1/2 hours to go what typically takes 30 minutes.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I sure hope whatever falls holds off till evening at the earliest. I am between Westminster and Bethesda tomorrow probably get out by midafternoon and the trip from Bethesda back home is trying enough in good weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
real Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I sure hope whatever falls holds off till evening at the earliest. I am between Westminster and Bethesda tomorrow probably get out by midafternoon and the trip from Bethesda back home is trying enough in good weather. Consider me in the opposite camp. I hope whatever falls starts sticking around 3 p.m. followed by a flash freeze at 4:30 p.m., leading to massive gridlock from Springfield Virginia to Frederick. I hope a trip from DC to Columbia takes 4 hours, a process made slower by abandoned vehicles unable to make it up a hill on Route 29... . Sorry, but if we are only going to get 2 or 3 inches, at least we can hope its a memorable 2 or 3 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 10 minutes until the do or die 0z's. Please don't back off, just hold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yorkpa25 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Most likely die Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 thru 27 hrs, I like the SREFs JI might be safe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 thru 27 hrs, I like the SREFs JI might be safe the 500 low is bigger like on the 18z models tho.. fingers crosed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 thru 27 hrs, I like the SREFs JI might be safe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 the 500 low is bigger like on the 18z models tho.. fingers crosed its a mean though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 its a mean though yeah it just sorta looks like the change from 12z to 18z comparing back to last sref but im not even sure it's bad to be honest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Good start of the suite, SREF's are an improvement from the 15z's and more in line with NAM/Hi-Res/Short Range models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 yeah it just sorta looks like the change from 12z to 18z comparing back to last sref but im not even sure it's bad to be honest base of the trough seems a bit further south, which to me is the most important part if I had to choose Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 looks like the .25 came west a bit on the 36 panel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yorkpa25 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Although seems like the 12 and 0z Nam runs are juicier then the 6 and 18z runs. So hopefully it's wetter and the low is tucked closer to the coast on tonights run. Pretty much need a miracle, but why not after all the crap the mid Atlantic has been through so far this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Good stuff... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 base of the trough seems a bit further south, which to me is the most important part if I had to choose i guess tho it seemed like the center ended up further north on the 18z runs.. the changes are minimal at this pt. i sorta think we need the interior low a little to create the snow shield anyway. tho that is admittedly along my fringe of knowledge of the subject. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 11, 2011 Author Share Posted January 11, 2011 Good stuff... thats about the 14 time that picture has been posted today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 definitely an improvement much better for NY the bastids, but better for us too so I'm happy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 definitely an improvement much better for NY the bastids, but better for us too so I'm happy Agreed, all we can ask for at this point. I mean its not like were gonna get a SECS, so lets try to eek out a 4-5 inch snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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